Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t agree at all but ok. 

The rgem us some thermal hints that ended up playing out, but synoptically not good. Plus that dendie storm.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

The rgem us some thermal hints that ended up playing out, but synoptically not good. Plus that dendie storm.

Maybe at worst some light snow regenerates? I dunno...I think that is some Ron Washington shit right there. That looks out there.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t see much on the 6z euro. 

She gone.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They had the meso band up here the night before but that’s it. Synoptically the CMC has been meh. They’ve been damn persistent with this though.

Yeah that’s what it was. I’m not calling for another 6-12 tomorrow night, but I’d wager it snows more 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah not buying the bigger snows Tuesday night/Wednesday. I could see an inch or two maybe. 

[kdxken]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that’s what it was. I’m not calling for another 6-12 tomorrow night, but I’d wager it snows more 

I think it was 4-8

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice to see the meso models hold overnight.  I see the GFS is still on the sauce though at 06z.  That's tossed into Cape Cod Bay.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

no euro clown maps or others since 0z 

did they cuttith backeth

Just woke up

[Greg]

The HRRR seems to be a better model to use  right now for since it appears many are nowcasting. But it does define the mix line well.

[NeonPeon]

How can you have a hot hand if by and large nobody has been playing?

Here in Newport the fun has started. Went from nothing to parachutes in about 5 minutes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

no euro clown maps or others since 0z 

did they cuttith backeth

Just woke up

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z HRRR slays

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

The HRRR seems to be a better model to use  right now for since it appears many are nowcasting. But it does define the mix line well.

The HRRR seems like it took to 12z (now) to realize what other models did 12 hours ago that the initial thump would be delayed a few hours (over previous estimates ). I've been watching how much qpf models have by 0z for KBED very closely B.C i work 4-8 this evening.  Starts things about 2 hours later but doesn't let up in fact it may have juiced up . 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You are in a good spot, as you know

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That's a big improvement here.

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wow, higher numbers from the king at the start? Lets do this!

[CoastalWx]

I may shove (or extend I should say) those numbers near ORH into S NH to the southeast.

[ineedsnow]

That valley screw zone is filling in on most models now

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Wow, higher numbers from the king at the start? Lets do this!

Be careful, the model may be counting some of the sleet as snow. Based on the latest HRRR. I just don't know how much is being counted. It will be close.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may shove (or extend I should say) those numbers near ORH into S NH to the southeast.

I hope so for the both of us.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Greg said:

I hope so for the both of us.

I'm staying conservative here, but looks pretty good in Wilmington. Airmass is just a little too marginal here, but that's how it goes.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That valley screw zone is filling in on most models now

Messenger shuffle 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

Be careful, the model may be counting some of the sleet as snow. Based on the latest HRRR. I just don't know how much is being counted. It will be close.

I'm not sure we see sleet down in this area until the dry slot pushes through...so it may not be showing much on those numbers anyway

[Tiktock]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I hope so for the both of us.

Same!  In Plaistow north of Haverhill here with crossed fingers

[Greg]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

I'm not sure we see sleet down in this area until the dry slot pushes through...so it may not be showing much on those numbers anyway

I hope your correct but this purple mix area seems to want to show up before any dry slots

 

[Greg]

Just starting to watch the NAM 12K right now to see if there are any more changes.

[Sn0waddict]

That’s an error with the HRRR algorithm. Check the sounding and you will see that there is no warm layer. Did this with the last storm too.

[Bostonseminole]

HRRR with the regeneration on wed

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm staying conservative here, but looks pretty good in Wilmington. Airmass is just a little too marginal here, but that's how it goes.

Enjoy 8-12

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

That’s an error with the HRRR algorithm. Check the sounding and you will see that there is no warm layer. Did this with the last storm too.

It always seems to be a function of less than full saturation in the DGZ. So not great snow growth.