Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

ya ...significantly further

it maybe having some issues ...i mean it takes "our future meso low"  from so far East of cape hatteras and then swings it north and it just interacts with another little low and it arrives a bit later than other guidance that hit us ...and is just further east. It's a convoluted process watching this low form and move and interact w other little vortices.  I think we want to see a earlier arrival and the energy originate not 300 miles east of Kill devil hills lol before coming up. 

Toss that. I think that is coming.

[ice1972]

Lol all the calls.....I mean just throw darts blindfolded really.....

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

ya ...significantly further

it maybe having some issues ...i mean it takes "our future meso low"  from so far East of cape hatteras and then swings it north and it just interacts with another little low and it arrives a bit later than other guidance that hit us ...and is just further east. It's a convoluted process watching this low form and move and interact w other little vortices.  I think we want to see a earlier arrival and the energy originate not 300 miles east of Kill devil hills lol before coming up. 

Yeah it's a really complex evolution... between a baroclinic zone that shifts further southeast courtesy of Monday's system, and leftover chunks of vorticity rotating around the broad trough... the end result is these cascading SLPs.... you get the sense a much bigger potential that Tip described is there, but it's just too discombobulated to materialize.

 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah it's a really complex evolution... between a baroclinic zone that shifts further southeast courtesy of Monday's system, and leftover chunks of vorticity rotating around the broad trough... the end result is these cascading SLPs.... you get the sense a much bigger potential that Tip described is there, but it's just too discombobulated to materialize.

 

 

 

I would say it def may not organize but that run didn’t can this for me  . Euro had the meso low at SC/NC latitude several hundred miles due south of our main low at 6z Tues , I understand there are many ways it can miss but I’m skeptical of that evolution .

if other models show it at 6z we can keep the faith alive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would say it def may not organize but that run didn’t can this for me  . Euro had the meso low at SC/NC latitude several hundred miles due south of our main low at 6z Tues , I understand there are many ways it can miss but I’m skeptical of that evolution .

if other models show it at 6z we can keep the faith alive 

Yea, gotta say it's more likely it fails than not, but I feel like something is up....not sure all of that other guidance is sniffing glue this close in.

[wxsniss]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m afraid it may not organize . Euro had the meso low at SC/NC latitude several hundred miles due south of our main low at 6z , I understand there are many ways it can miss but I’m skeptical of the evolution .

if other models show it at 6z we can keep the faith alive 

Agree... when it's CMC / RGEM / HRPDS leading the way, you gotta remain skeptical. But I do think it's reasonable to expect that none of this will be sorted out on guidance until later Monday, even if the lead time is < 36 hours. Too much in flux with Monday's system underway.

Also as someone suggested earlier, this could be just a transition on guidance towards a more continuous event.

[weathafella]

[ScottieBird]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Holy Cow we're weather elites and we don't bother with TWC but they continue to have a following and this map is vastly different from their 1-3 for a huge chunk of eastern MA.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just saw NBCs map. Pretty much identical minus the 6-10 in the SE corner. I like it.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ScottieBird said:

Holy Cow we're weather elites and we don't bother with TWC but they continue to have a following and this map is vastly different from their 1-3 for a huge chunk of eastern MA.

They are wrong. 

[ScottieBird]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They are wrong. 

Yes. Of course. And if TWC'S forecast verified a lot of people reading this right now wouldn't even need a DNR because we have plenty of bridges in SE New England. 

[dendrite]

6z nam tried the hook and ladder

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

6z nam tried the hook and ladder

Ya that was close..  

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I assume you mean 00z RGEM 

 

That’s about how it should play out 

[RobertSul]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I assume you mean 00z RGEM 

 

Congrats Northborough/Westborough!

[BrianW]

Let's not forget about the damaging winds...

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Congrats Northborough/Westborough!

Hopefully the NWS employee who apparently lives in Westborough and was submitting reports in the last event will be doing so again. 

[mattm4242]

[The 4 Seasons]

Raging HERPES. 6-12 additional after the first part. Had to post this just for the shock value.

Part 2 only. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Raging HERPES. 6-12 additional after the first part. Had to post this just for the shock value.

Part 2 only. 

I think that is real to some extent . Not another 6-12”, but most of us can grab another 3-6”+ later tomorrow . Was trying to tell em early yesterday when they had sun out by the afternoon 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think that is real to some extent . Not another 6-12”, but most of us can grab another 3-6”+ later tomorrow . Was trying to tell em early yesterday when they had sun out by the afternoon 

Somethin well have to keep an eye on. Hoping some more reliable models hop on board today with the 12Z runs. If that happens even 3-6 would put a lot of areas in the 16-22 range.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Canadians are not backing down at 6z for tomorrow. Interesting. Euro beefed up for CT today. Let’s Go.

[CoastalWx]

No sign of it on euro. Methinks we sell.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No sign of it on euro. Methinks we sell.

It looked like 00z had it develop near the same convection where the rgem does, but it was weaker and went into central ME.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tough to go against the hot hand this winter which the GGEM and Reggie have had. I think a toned down version with another plowable snow fall tomorrow night is a good buy 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It looked like 00z had it develop near the same convection where the rgem does, but it was weaker and went into central ME.

Yeah I don’t see much on the 6z euro. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tough to go against the hot hand this winter which the GGEM and Reggie have had. I think a toned down version with another plowable snow fall tomorrow night is a good buy 

Those models have been the worst this winter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those models have been the worst this winter. 

Huh? They’ve done remarkably well. There was one event.. maybe Dec 17 they nailed dead nuts. I’d say the Euro has been worse . We’ll see how it models out later today 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? They’ve done remarkably well. There was one event.. maybe Dec 17 they nailed dead nuts. I’d say the Euro has been worse . We’ll see how it models out later today 

I don’t agree at all but ok. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? They’ve done remarkably well. There was one event.. maybe Dec 17 they nailed dead nuts. I’d say the Euro has been worse . We’ll see how it models out later today 

They had the meso band up here the night before but that’s it. Synoptically the CMC has been meh. They’ve been damn persistent with this though.