Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ice1972]

She taking her sweet time up here....lfg

[STILL N OF PIKE]

UKIE smokes Ray to Rochester NH Tues Pm with that second low ...another 4-6

[wxsniss]

All this energy spawning disparate lows reminds me of a storm a few years ago... sorry I can't remember the date...

On guidance a large trough with multiple pieces of vorticity spawning different SLPs as they hit the coast, and we compared it to mogwais... guidance struggled and eventually coalesced into a single dominant SLP... reality was a SNE blizzard

RGEM did the same thing as CMC and HRPDS, and Euro hints at it too... glad to see a potential popping up before it's off Maine

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

uncle running on pivotal

It's not quite the gem, but goes pretty wild Tuesday NE MA into ME. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

UKIE smokes Ray to Rochester NH Tues Pm with that second low ...another 4-6

I'm not sure the Tolland posters are happy with UKIE output. 

[CoastalWx]

Drops a few here too. 

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

uncle running on pivotal

Does it finally show the storm hitting us or is it still trying to send it to Bermuda? (Second best model btw)

 

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Drops a few here too. 

Gives me about 4” total lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Greg said:

Something really doesn't look correct with the Canadian Model. Definitely on its' own.

I think we are headed that direction. Euro was almost there at 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

where does one find the Herps

MILFS in KBED

[CT Valley Snowman]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not sure the Tolland posters are happy with UKIE output. 

The dry slot on some of the modeling is just plain nasty in the valley.  I'm definitely low confidence here.  Nothing would shock me.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Drops a few here too. 

that's another .75 to 1 QPF in spots

[TalcottWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MILFS in KBED

Mac 2's foxy lady local elks club glass slipper golden banana or perhaps even your local 99

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MILFS in KBED

not mine lol . Maybe the KLWM transfers

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CT Valley Snowman said:

The dry slot on some of the modeling is just plain nasty in the valley.  I'm definitely low confidence here.  Nothing would shock me.  

You have the right approach, keep expectations low in that Hartford CT to Brattleboro VT corridor.   I'll be happy with anything over 4"

[PhineasC]

UKMET has had a local jackpot over my house for several cycles now...

[RDRY]

Do the computer models extrapolate historical data into their outputs? This is an unusual set-up -- will they incorporate prior similar set-ups into their forecast?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Do the computer models extrapolate historical data into their outputs? This is an unusual set-up -- will they incorporate prior similar set-ups into their forecast?

No they don't

But the WPC forecasts will in a sense.

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow

[ice1972]

i swear to god if this Boxing Days me imma just done.......and all you lame asses telling me other wise......

[78Blizzard]

TWC still pushing at this hour more rain than snow on a line that includes Boston and surrounding areas on SE.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

TWC still pushing at this hour more rain than snow on a line that includes Boston and surrounding areas on SE.

1/21/78

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1/21/78

Let's hope that poorly forecasted storm which was a prelude to what happened two weeks later repeats itself again.

 

 

[78Blizzard]

Euro  not much different than 12z.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro no meso low for NE mass 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro no meso low for NE mass 

 

Fu**.

Now cast it.

[wxsniss]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@STILL N OF PIKEHow is the Euro for Tues night?

Spawns a new low, but it's too far offshore... impacts northeastern ME

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Spawns a new low, but it's too far offshore... impacts northeastern ME

Farther than 18z? It was just off the coast..

[Amped]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Accordions flying through the air left and right if that happened. 

I actually remember the CMC doing something very similar for a  couple runs before the 1/2015 blizzard..  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Farther than 18z? It was just off the coast..

ya ...significantly further

it maybe having some issues ...i mean it takes "our future meso low"  from so far East of cape hatteras and then swings it north and it just interacts with another little low and it arrives a bit later than other guidance that hit us ...and is just further east. It's a convoluted process watching this low form and move and interact w other little vortices.  I think we want to see a earlier arrival and the energy originate not 300 miles east of Kill devil hills lol before coming up. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call for this beast. Our first call was 6-12 and we bumped it up 4-6 across the board. Had a sliver of 6-10 along SE CT but pulled it after looking at bufkit and 00Z models coming in. Still expect some mixing there but the damage will be done the way i see it. 6-10 is too low imo and so i expect them, while not to get 16-18 like SW CT but just be close to the 10" range. SW CT in the upper part of the range and highlighted and area of localized 20" especially near the NY boarder and extreme SW CT. 

Looked at the valley min situation and dont feel its a problem to warrant a lower range there. 

I saw the RGEM/HRGEM/GEM on crack destroying central CT on east on Tuesday. Not sure what to make of that and its the only model suite doing that was it was ignored for the time being.