Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[weathafella]

Holy shit CMC!    Tuesday night another 6-12!

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Wow, taking my overalls off

If you're not wearing anything at all you can skip that step 

[CoastalWx]

Here is another thought for those peeps near the coast like Jerry. My guess is that 1) Models will not be cold enough on the cold side of the CF and 2) probably collapses south quicker Tuesday morning. So those that change over, Tuesday morning could have a nasty refreeze back to FZDZ and/or snow.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The mega-band that was progged to stall over LI...I don't think that's gonna happen.  That bad boy is gonna blow into CT and then some.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The 12-15 on that map compares to about 4" here on Pivotal

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a dump to me. Don't fall in love with the clown maps.

Isn't that what you're doing with the Stormvista map?

[weathafella]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

The 12-15 on that map compares to about 4" here on Pivotal

Pivotal is screwed up.  Did you run the model?   No way that’s 4”!

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Holy shit CMC!    Tuesday night another 6-12!

December 92 redux?

[weathafella]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Isn't that what you're doing with the Stormvista map?

He didn’t post SV

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, weathafella said:

Pivotal is screwed up.  Did you run the model?   No way that’s 4”!

look at that jacky jack ...down to near the CP of South central Jersey on both versions.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Isn't that what you're doing with the Stormvista map?

I was referring to the QPF dropped over us. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing that caught my eye was the DGZ drying out after like 4z or so. So it would need to be hours of big lift from 850 isentropic glide and CF stuff which could do it I suppose. You'd think that you could nickel and dime your way to 18+ on the cold side of the CF into Wed,

Yeah I’ve seen that on some guidance. But even if we rip from say 1pm to 11pm...that’s 10 hours in the firehose overlayed on the WCB dynamics. I’m not counting the light crap before 1pm which may add up to an inch or two. 

But yeah, there’s always “something” that makes it really hard to get 18”+ without being in the ML/CCB goodies. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

WTF canada?

[wx2fish]

V16 is really juiced up too

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Isn't that what you're doing with the Stormvista map?

He looks at raw model data and makes his own maps in his head, he does not need sv or wb 

[CoastalWx]

The Para looks like it drops some S+ in a similar fashion. I wonder if that strong WAA near 700 has a conv element to it. I noticed the soundings steepen a bit too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[Juturna]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The mega-band that was progged to stall over LI...I don't think that's gonna happen.  That bad boy is gonna blow into CT and then some.

That's not the mega band, that won't even be around till tomorrow.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Holy shit CMC!    Tuesday night another 6-12!

Oh man.... that panel at 48 hours is a masterpiece. That is some really stunning wraparound. I hope to God it happens.

[Typhoon Tip]

This whole thing has gone above expectations for me anyway – it’s all gravy to me LOL

I mean I was pretty clear all week that I thought this was a protracted moderate event ...so long it would approach major by virtue of culminating affects. 

This last day’s worth of runs seem to be engineering more of a major thing ... it’s just still not consistent ...it’s pissing me off

I almost wonder if what actually verifies is less resurgence Tuesday night and just a longer front side event ... I think what the models  are doing is shearing  the initial low apart, and then using the residual upper level mechanics to formulate a new low that then hooks around and clobbers again ... and Jesus Christ ...I don’t know if I believe all that ...?but I haven’t really been talking about it because I don’t know there’s so much about this whole thing that’s f’ed up to begin with where does one begin 

[weathafella]

Fun times just in front of us!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wish that was any other model than CMC showing that,  we pray

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WTF???

[CoastalWx]

That's a 6 hr blizzard on the canadian lol there. Not kidding.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Possible?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's a 6 hr blizzard on the canadian lol there. Not kidding.

is it on it's own with that handling so far

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Accordions flying through the air left and right if that happened. 

[Henry's Weather]

Pops up out of nowhere 48 hours out!

[78Blizzard]

The Para has been consistent for E MA as opposed to the old GFS.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’ve seen that on some guidance. But even if we rip from say 1pm to 11pm...that’s 10 hours in the firehose overlayed on the WCB dynamics. I’m not counting the light crap before 1pm which may add up to an inch or two. 

But yeah, there’s always “something” that makes it really hard to get 18”+ without being in the ML/CCB goodies. 

It's wicked impressive. The LLJ convergence shows up nicely near here on the QPF maps too. Hopefully we can thump before the mix comes.