Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dendrite]

Just need the NAM to produce a tertiary low and tuck it up into BOS like the RGEM.

[kdxken]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Very reasonable.  I think any 18" totals will be isolated but a foot from ORH Co. up toward you looks fairly certain.  

With you hippie on 18  being isolated.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And don’t look past later Tuesday to see what tries to spin north like the euro tried  to show. 

Yup 

[kdxken]

Just now, dendrite said:

Just need the NAM to produce a tertiary low and tuck it up into BOS like the RGEM.

Anything's possible with the NAM.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We take.  Like 99% frozen.  Thump to snizzly dryslot.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

SE mass likes this shift KTAN to K scoot

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, kdxken said:

With you hippie on 18  being isolated.

It's not moving slow enough so you would need absolutely hella rates to bang that much. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like that shift SE with H5 too. 

Keeps the flow more easterly mitigating the warming.  

[wxsniss]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z NAM...  not what I wanted to see. Sizeable jump southwest thru 21 hrs.

Will have the Philly forum cheering.

But still delivers to eastern SNE... in fact a tick colder in interior southeast MA

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Very reasonable.  I think any 18" totals will be isolated but a foot from ORH Co. up toward you looks fairly certain.  

The upper tier of the ranges are never meant to be widespread...localized banding under max ratios...most likely ne corner of state or SE NH.

Most spots 12-15".

[78Blizzard]

NAM cut way back here on qpf. Over half an inch.

[Spanks45]

This whole system feels like there are going to be some surprises good and bad that will be nowcasted and not forecasted using the models...There is so many moving parts, creating pretty big changes run to run, especially being this close. Philly over to Lancaster has had quite the flip flops over the past 12-24 hours

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

NAM cut way back here on qpf. Over half an inch.

This just in: You weren't ever getting 2"+ lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The upper tier of the ranges are never meant to be widespread...localized banding under max ratios...most likely ne corner of state or SE NH.

You may be a contender for the upper tier.  Enjoy!

[CT Rain]

Hires NAM with ~0.4" of QPF for Tolland. 

[bishbish777]

3km NAM cuts QPF back even more than the 12km NAM. The thump rips through too quick.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rev is going to love that forecast.

Already blasted me on FB LOL

[CoastalWx]

NAM tries to sink H5 SW a bit in response to a sharp s/w Tuesday. Lets see if that rejuvenates anything.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Hires NAM with ~0.4" of QPF for Tolland. 

Days and days and days of meh.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Hires NAM with ~0.4" of QPF for Tolland. 

Hellacious dryslot right through his hood.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Hires NAM with ~0.4" of QPF for Tolland.

Stein! Dry begets dry?

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hellacious dryslot right through his hood.

Meanwhile Luke's cleaning up.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

SE mass likes this shift KTAN to K scoot

Any help with the drought is appreciated.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hellacious dryslot right through his hood.

Never had a chance with the flow coming down from ORH.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hellacious dryslot right through his hood.

Sharp QPF gradient as you get W and N of Worcester.

[moneypitmike]

Okay--off to bed  Enjoy the rest of the 00z runs.

Fingers crossed.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What nammy gonna do at 6z Wednesday ....rejuvinate?

Nice little new /deeper  closed 5H contour SW of Montauk at 3z Wednesday. 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Stein! Dry begets dry?

Gotta be concerned for spring water table issues at this rate. Brush fires on the Massif? 

[TalcottWx]

I have no idea what our delivery company does in the case of heavy snow. Hopefully not work. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Any major dry-slotting in ORH area? If not, why not? It seems like the CT valley is consistently getting ruined with ORH county (especially central east) getting slammed. I remember living in Amherst many decades ago and watching my hometown get 15" while Amherst squeezed in 6". Is this common, though? Or, is this an especially weird winter with the December storm dropping 4 feet in Central NH while other areas got diddly. I don't seem to recall two major storms doing this in recent years.