Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its been the most accurate to my recollection.

Is the model too warm?

Possible...

I just look at level temps and omega and a 33 degree temp with all above below 32 and omega through the roof.

[CoastalWx]

I'd like to see H5 tighten up. That's a broad trough. Looks like a washer machine on spin cycle with a brick in it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see H5 tighten up. That's a broad trough. Looks like a washer machine on spin cycle with a brick in it.

Yeah it's very broad...tighten it up and we'd have a really high end potentially historic storm rather than simply a "very good" storm that croaks us for 12-16 hours.

Not that I wouldn't sign up for the latter right now if offered....

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just look at level temps and omega and a 33 degree temp with all above below 32 and omega through the roof.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The deformation stuff this run is back across central/upsate NY....this is a huge circulation....this is really about a 12-18 hour storm for SNE with a really powerful firehose coming off the atlantic. Then it would prob be another 18-24 hours of garbage off and on flakes/crapola.

It's a really good storm....but my guess is it wouldn't match our true top dogs if we're trying to compare here. Get that H5 low to tighten up a little bit and then it might be.

Honestly ... this needs to be the correction vector ...and we probably aren't the best crew of individuals to be exposed to guidance availing of a Langrangian COL point in the teleconnector spread because with our cutting objective insight...we definitely will filter out that prospect of a 60 hours of Coastal avalanche and go with something more sensible than taking 2.5 days to snow S+++ the whole way -   'totally can happen, dude'

[CoastalWx]

We do take the EPS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a weenie but read your emails bro.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

how is f5wx in general? I like that overlay map, seems useful.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see H5 tighten up. That's a broad trough. Looks like a washer machine on spin cycle with a brick in it.

I agree....we  may be starting to get locked into that, though, by this point....its been consistent.

What causes that?

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't realize low levels went to crap....now it makes sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

how is f5wx in general? I like that overlay map, seems useful.

TBH, I only noticed those freezing layers recently....the snowfall maps are the best, IMO, for resolving thermal snowfall gradients. Like Steve and Kevin will tell you, it isn't perfect...but it isn't prone to those idotic glitches that add up snow at least excuse imaginable. It was also miss mid level deformation because...well, the model does.

[moneypitmike]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H5 looks like it goes along the s coast to me....I have no issue with it.

 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H7 over the cape...looks perfect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I only noticed those freezing layers recently....the snowfall maps are the best, IMO, for resolving thermal snowfall gradients. Like Steve and Kevin will tell you, it isn't perfect...but it isn't prone to those idotic glitches that add up snow at least excuse imaginable. It was also miss mid level deformation because...well, the model does.

Now,. if the model is too warm....different issue. But it will most accurately convey what the data is trying to disseminate in relation to snowfall output IMO. If the model is wrong because it is too warm, then the output will be wrong.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree....we  may be starting to get locked into that, though, by this point....its been consistent.

What causes that?

The short answer is weaker thermal gradients cause the geopotential heights to be further apart. Not a surprise in this setup though because we have the big omega-ish block up in Quebec/Ontario in front of the system. That said, the entire H5 low could trend stronger and more compact as we get closer...we're still 6 days out.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree....we  may be starting to get locked into that, though, by this point....its been consistent.

What causes that?

It's already a mature s/w over the Midwest. It starts to dig SE and elongate as a shot of nrn stream energy digs in. SO you get a more elongated and large ULL vs a Jan 2011 nuke.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a choke snow inflow jet - sorry...

- it's just a model depiction amongst many that we'll eye-candy and/or rue our ways thru over the next 3 or so days ... then perhaps a believable consensus "precipitates"  ( haha ) out of all that, but in a snap shot... with closing/deepening 700-400 plates under a 300 mb right fanning diffluence... that is snowing 8" /hr with multi pulse + stroked CG so powerful that EMP shuts down the grid clear to DCA and trips gamma-ray detectors down at LIGO

I'm kidding... heh. I haven't read J. Nichol's story yet but I fear such turns of phrasing -    ... just kidding James. 

Anyway, seriously, that kind of inflow jet under an unstable and continuing to further destablizing interior cyclonic stadium ...with diffluence in the upper region is likely to be prolific if that were to pan that way -

We tried to tell em it wasn’t real, but he likes the colors 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The short answer is weaker thermal gradients cause the geopotential heights to be further apart. Not a surprise in this setup though because we have the big omega-ish block up in Quebec/Ontario in front of the system. That said, the entire H5 low could trend stronger and more compact as we get closer...we're still 6 days out.

Yeah that is a good point, the thermal gradient is really small across the east.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We do take the EPS.

Why would you not with this look?

 

[Henry's Weather]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's very broad...tighten it up and we'd have a really high end potentially historic storm rather than simply a "very good" storm that croaks us for 12-16 hours.

Not that I wouldn't sign up for the latter right now if offered....

 

hold on, are we getting into potentially historic talk with this event? I don't have much experience tracking the huge ones, so I have no real point of comparison.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The short answer is weaker thermal gradients cause the geopotential heights to be further apart. Not a surprise in this setup though because we have the big omega-ish block up in Quebec/Ontario in front of the system. That said, the entire H5 low could trend stronger and more compact as we get closer...we're still 6 days out.

Where the hell is that useless arctic load that everyone was raving about as an antecedent airmass? Back to the same Groundhog day, thermal crap, scenario that we had in Dec and Jan. All we heard about was how "no issues w baroclinicty or gradients now"....lo and behold....

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

you think this morphs into a more canonical synoptic setup as we approach? 

not sure ... it could get all proper/traditionally leading indicator - like, but...I still believe this has more bent toward an unusual aspect, where the perennial North American pattern ( not to be confused with the PNA ) is - for whatever reason - bursting a western height eruption.  That's not really PNA proper feed in...but it is what it is...

The problem with the PNAP is that wave space terminates roughly... Ohioness in longitude...  

Meanwhile, the 90 to 60W is getting abandoned by the crumbling -NAO, western limbed blocking... That leaves a null region in normal progression ( transiently..) ... So whatever times in there gets caught in amber ... but that's getting speculative -

The short answer is that it "looks" more proper than it is... This thing's hiding its secrets -  I call those "super synoptic," but it's just meaning that there are synergistic aspects and are readily observable. They feed-back on forcing things once they emerge.  ...tough not to believe in the cosmic dildo but that's a digression for another paranoia... LOL

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where the hell is that useless arctic load that everyone was raving about as an antecedent airmass? Back to the same Groundhog day, thermal crap, scenario that we had in Dec and Jan. All we heard about was how "no issues w baroclinicty or gradients now"....lo and behold....

If you look at 850, it vanishes lol. It's good enough inland at least.

[dryslot]

Better get this one to produce the next one wants to go NE thru MI

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why would you not with this look?

 

Great look. Much better than OP here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If you look at 850, it vanishes lol. It's good enough inland at least.

How? WTF happened, the Hadley Cell eat it?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I thought the eps took a step back fwiw. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where the hell is that useless arctic load that everyone was raving about as an antecedent airmass? Back to the same Groundhog day, thermal crap, scenario that we had in Dec. All we hard about was how "no issues w baroclinicty or gradients now"....lo and behold....

Lol...it's not nearly as bad as it was back in early January....but it's not like this really strong gradient ala Feb 2013.

The fact we achieve deep layer easterly flow mitigates a lot of the "worry" over something really hideous anyway. That's a really impressive look. But it just is unlikely to be this more compact classic looking storm with a commahead/deformation over central or western New England while the dryslot is over the Cape....it won't be like that. It will probably have a deformation back over NY State while we are getting firehosed....that happened in March 2001 for example.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Why would you not with this look?

 

Looks like a late capture.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where the hell is that useless arctic load that everyone was raving about as an antecedent airmass? Back to the same Groundhog day, thermal crap, scenario that we had in Dec and Jan. All we heard about was how "no issues w baroclinicty or gradients now"....lo and behold....

The airmass isn’t all that to me, the bone chilling cold from this weekend is gone by the time this makes it up here.

Also, live I’ve maintained, at least for my locale, I’m much more concerned about precip type than a whiff at this juncture.

[CoastalWx]

Another 3' from BGM to DEND.