Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

HRRR FTMFW

 

Nice but HRRR cannot be trusted beyond hour ten

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

If it's real, then that explains why your numbers are being cut a bit.  Subsidence and a not-particularly-favorable-wind-for-upslope.   But I dunno - with how occluded the broader low will be, I feel like it's going to play much more like an upslope event under an upper low?  I don't see the forcing by the coast after the main WAA band lifts north.  We shall see. 

If that rejuvenation is real, then that would make me increase the numbers up there not cut them back. 

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

That would a kick in the nuts to many forecasts and many others' expectations.

Why does that one model keep wanting to bury E MA?  It’s pretty much on its own. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

If it's real, then that explains why your numbers are being cut a bit.  Subsidence and a not-particularly-favorable-wind-for-upslope.   But I dunno - with how occluded the broader low will be, I feel like it's going to play much more like an upslope event under an upper low?  I don't see the forcing by the coast after the main WAA band lifts north.  We shall see. 

I get upslope enhancement from the NW, N, NE, and E directions. So that's not an issue here. I think the 18z just blows up the GOM low a little later and less strongly than 12z. Still 20" here so no complaints.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

this storm looks to be arriving a bit faster than modeled.  I mean there is banding now just southwest of the Vineyard.

Traditionally a good sign, IMO.

[Drz1111]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that rejuvenation is real, then that would make me increase the numbers up there not cut them back. 

I freely admit to being new to forecasting up here.  Spent much of the last few days combing through the reanalysis of some of the big Portland storms, and they kind of look like this, but also kind of not?  It's not so easy to find a good analog.

Anyways down in NYC, if you get a big CCB band going over NYC, it tends to steal from the Catskills.  Those CCB processes tend to be more zero sum, and driven by random chance as opposed to topography.  Whereas the LLJ/WWA processes are more generous to everyone and upslope (normally) always wins. 

[SnowHole413]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-5” in the Pioneer Valley??  That dude 

At least 4-8” lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Major fringe job by the Euro up in NW Mass. Looks like a quick hit from the initial fronto band, then the dry slot and 20 hours of weak echoes.

I've been planning on that since Thursday so NBD.   Hopefully pull 4-6" here.

[Henry's Weather]

Any obs thread yet?

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Oh good not until Monday.

That’s what overnight Sunday means. Lol at you on Thursday thinking it was coming in Wednesday 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Snow has started here

Hmmm . Sunday night start in CT?

[Hoth]

Ryan calling for dryslot, slop and rain on the coast. FML.

[kdxken]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Hmmm . Sunday night start in CT?

Careful on the roads.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that rejuvenation is real, then that would make me increase the numbers up there not cut them back. 

What’s your forecast map look like in SNE? Can you break down numbers in words by region?

[MRVexpat]

16 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Ahhhh the Final tune was Spain, by Chick Corea.  Before it was If I ain't got You by Alicia Keys.  Another one was Panarea, a South American Tune.  Bella Chitarra, a Jazz Waltz.  Ahhhhh what else, La Vie en Rose with the Violinist.  Or the Romanian tune, which was the Fast Duo tune we did.  

Chick Corea! Totally makes sense now, that's the one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Ryan calling for dryslot, slop and rain on the coast. FML.

So the circus decided to not cross state lines? At least I don’t have to wash DIT’s trucks in 80s jean shorts anymore. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Truck ban on CT Highways starting tomorrow AM.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Traditionally a good sign, IMO.

Water vapor imagery shows us a large upper level disturbance over Tennessee right now that is pivoting along the base of the large long wave trough.  This energy is pushing the coastal low off of the SC coastline and allow it to rapidly intensify.  I believe the models have been too focused on the northern upper low that is decaying rapidly now over Northern IN and OH and will allow the southern portion of the upper trough to spark coastal development in the southern low.  Also perhaps why the precip might be more progressive than originally thought.  At least initially until the southern low takes over.  Lightning is igniting with the energy at the base of the upper trough, not with the northern portion.  Therefore the imagery shows why a colder scenario could unfold further down the road and not focus on the warmer guidance.  Although, I will probably rain no matter what.

[Hoth]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Just have to try to put up numbers before the flip. Not sure what his map is but I still think you’re good for a nice event. 

It would be nice to have a siggy all-snow event for once. Feels like it's been a good three years since the last one.

[BombsAway1288]

TWC has under 3" inside 95 and only about 2" for Boston with a complete changeover to rain.

That's an insane margin between them and the NWS.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So the circus decided to not cross state lines? At least I don’t have to wash DIT’s trucks in 80s jean shorts anymore. 

So the Bury is on the S coast?

[Hoth]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I just checked. His map is higher than mine. I thought he had you at 4” or something with your post.  

He describes the coast as a "slopfest" on his Twitter. It triggered me.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Water vapor imagery shows us a large upper level disturbance over Tennessee right now that is pivoting along the base of the large long wave trough.  This energy is pushing the coastal low off of the SC coastline and allow it to rapidly intensify.  I believe the models have been too focused on the northern upper low that is decaying rapidly now over Northern IN and OH and will allow the southern portion of the upper trough to spark coastal development in the southern low.  Also perhaps why the precip might be more progressive than originally thought.  At least initially until the southern low takes over.  Lightning is igniting with the energy at the base of the upper trough, not with the northern portion.  Therefore the imagery shows why a colder scenario could unfold further down the road and not focus on the warmer guidance.  Although, I will probably rain no matter what.

You spoke like an on air met, very serious, until the last sentence which made me laugh... and is true. Well done. 

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Any obs thread yet?

Are you observing something?

[78Blizzard]

TWC forecasting 3-5" for Boston.  I guess they are riding the old GFS, CMC and the Ukie, and giving zero play to the PARA, the NAM, even the 12z and18z Euro, among others like HRRR and RAP.  Don't get it.

[kdxken]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Are you observing something?

Lolz!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So the Bury is on the S coast?

I’m not sniffing 24 is all. If I sniff 18, huge win.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not sniffing 24 is all. If I sniff 18, huge win.

Don’t rule anything out 

[ScituateWX]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

TWC forecasting 3-5" for Boston.  I guess they are riding the old GFS, CMC and the Ukie, and giving zero play to the PARA, the NAM, even the 12z and18z Euro, among others like HRRR and RAP.  Don't get it.

Folks still watch the TWC?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

TWC forecasting 3-5" for Boston.  I guess they are riding the old GFS, CMC and the Ukie, and giving zero play to the PARA, the NAM, even the 12z and18z Euro, among others like HRRR and RAP.  Don't get it.

The models in general are focusing their energy on the northern upper low which has been decaying the last several hours, the surface low has filled and is the same pressure as the southern low.  The two surface centers are in different modes of intensification and weakening processes.  The low you want to focus on is the strengthening low and that low is focused along the coastline of SE South Carolina with the previous pressure falls favoring southeast of the Cape Hatteras region.  Also the lowest pressure readings are in the 1007.0-1007.9mb range which is from Myrtle Beach to Charleston, SC at this hour.  Also the high over near Hudson Bay, Canada is not weakening.