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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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18Z Euro continued to be nice for ME - popping off that extra low in the GoM and stalling it over downeast ME.   It's a toned down version of the amped CA models.    I've been very skeptical of the secondary max in coastal NH/ME but it's persisting in the higher resolution models so who knows, maybe I'm in for a treat. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

image.thumb.png.07dace7d2c1adee6a784ff99e3c34b58.png

As long as you are north of the H7 warm front, you are usually going to be getting smoked. In this image it is easy to see as the height lines are bent back...that’s when we say “bent back warm front”....I marked the front in red

 

 

340548FF-086B-4F1B-A835-FD3BAD3A85BE.jpeg

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hard to quantify h7 there but just a snapshot as it stalls for several frames but the position was definitely east by 25 miles or so which drags the cbb se. Why Philly got in on it. What about lift though...What map do you want to see lol?

actually man, no worries. I'm not gonna hog the thread. Plenty more models to run tonite. Gotta set my final NBA lineups on Fanduel. ha

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14 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

Dude!!! So rad. What is the name of the tune that is currently being played??? (If you see this in time). I've seen Club D'elf cover it a good amount of times at the Lizard Lounge in Cambridge where they have their residency. 

Ahhhh the Final tune was Spain, by Chick Corea.  Before it was If I ain't got You by Alicia Keys.  Another one was Panarea, a South American Tune.  Bella Chitarra, a Jazz Waltz.  Ahhhhh what else, La Vie en Rose with the Violinist.  Or the Romanian tune, which was the Fast Duo tune we did.  

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought that had better concordance between the surface, mid, and upper levels? 

Agree, Dec event was much better organized... this one is more disjointed, with mid and upper level centers maybe further southwest than ideal, but apparently plenty of WAA lift + 850 fetch to deliver. What are you thinking for Chestnut Hill?

The other puzzle is what happens Tuesday. Guidance all over the place with that. 

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5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

18Z Euro continued to be nice for ME - popping off that extra low in the GoM and stalling it over downeast ME.   It's a toned down version of the amped CA models.    I've been very skeptical of the secondary max in coastal NH/ME but it's persisting in the higher resolution models so who knows, maybe I'm in for a treat. 

I think it's real. Euro has had it for a couple runs now.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I think it's real. Euro has had it for a couple runs now.

If it's real, then that explains why your numbers are being cut a bit.  Subsidence and a not-particularly-favorable-wind-for-upslope.   But I dunno - with how occluded the broader low will be, I feel like it's going to play much more like an upslope event under an upper low?  I don't see the forcing by the coast after the main WAA band lifts north.  We shall see. 

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