Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m expecting 14-16” here . 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

One other factor for borderline peeps are the 3-4 hrs pf good lift into the DGZ as modeled. You may be like 35F at the onset, but maybe wetbulb to near 32 with those flakes helping to latent cool the atmosphere. Once the DGZ dries out, then it's over to a mix. 

I think the NAM had like 6 hrs of that, at least around here.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m expecting 14-16” here . 

That’s doable for both of us I think.  Hope it pans out for us. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yep tick east, cooler but less prolific with qpf --- really key point is it did not make a last minute jump towards RGEM/old-GFS:

I know it's all about where banding sets up and how long etc. However all models cutting back as we close in. 10 to 11 on this is the lowest now. I guess 10 to 15 is now range SW CT.

[Henry's Weather]

Hoping for the biggest storm since 3/13/18, which was around 20 inches. Cautiously optimistic for a foot here.

[ineedsnow]

Thinking 8 or so here.. Good luck everyone.. 

[Kbosch]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I know it's all about where banding sets up and how long etc. However all models cutting back as we close in. 10 to 11 on this is the lowest now. I guess 10 to 15 is now range SW CT.

I think we were always about a foot with the usual overdone QPF. It's all good. Ratios and some luck can kick us up to 18.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Hoping for the biggest storm since 3/13/18, which was around 20 inches. Cautiously optimistic for a foot here.

What did you get in December?

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, weathafella said:

What did you get in December?

12 inches on the nose. Optimistic for a foot, leaving room for maybe 16 inches if everything works out, which would be the most since.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

8 or 9” would be a pretty big bust here. I guess we’ll see? 

You can def begin to see why a 7/10 split of sorts has been modeled with a big jack in NE PA/NJ and then another max (but smaller) over E ma into E  Central NH (and if things break "right" into S Maine.

The Mid level lift is just best from NYC longitude west from that stalled 7 H low...i mean that low doesn't really budge for a long time a long timeeeee ..then it stretches and loses it's forcing.  Also the Rest of SNE is heavily dependent on the thump and it  seems like it may not be as focused in Western SNE than E SNE  (perhaps because E SNE has the CF enhancment and maybe even some Ocean enhancement ) so you can see how this could lead to a relative lesser totals back by HFD (6-10) and even a tad SW (thou that area a bit SW also has a higher ceiling but it's looking increasingly like the ML goodies won't slide east over them much). tuThis may not happen..but i can see how or why it could. 

[Bostonseminole]

 My final call here is 12-14”.. good luck all

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

SWFE dynamics always lure some in with totally unrealistic qpf numbers .

...and other times deliver over-performers like Dec 17.

Box seems to have favored the NAM/HREF dynamics for Monday afternoon. I think 8-12" Boston city proper, 10-14" suburbs / metro west is very realistic.

Verbatim off NAM, this will be a wild afternoon commute... would be 1-2" / rates for hours:

[amarshall]

Final call here is 3". Heading for the bath.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think the NAM had like 6 hrs of that, at least around here.

It wasn’t that long. It won’t be in this set up. 

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just give me something where I need to use the snowblower in north central MA for the first time since mid December. Thank you. 

[weathafella]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

12 inches on the nose. Optimistic for a foot, leaving room for maybe 16 inches if everything works out, which would be the most since.

Two 1 footers in a season was unheard of even in some of the great winters of yore.  Growing up I remember 1957-8, 1960-61, and 1968-69.   Of course the 1977-78 season but I was in California and already over 30 years old.    Savor the period we’re in now.....it may become far less frequent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Big Y in Saugus. Not a sales related closure as the store was kicking ass, the company and the landlord couldn’t come to terms on a lease renewal. They apparently have found a new location in Saugus to build a store, but that’s 18 months away, at best.

So all the managers and full timers choice is either go to another location, which Peabody is the only one within 58 miles of my house lol, or take an exit severance. And ending up at the Peabody store is a crapshoot at best, so I’m interviewing at a wholefoods in Beverly Tuesday, weather pending. I have pretty bad anxiety, so the thought of starting at a new place sucks, especially because I was really comfortable where I was.

Done ranting now lol.

I get it man. I have anxiety too and I start a new role tomorrow remotely so zoom meetings all day every day for two weeks straight...like the worst thing for someone with ADD and anxiety to stare into screens for tha long with so many peope to talk to. And it’s not like I can take my edibles to slow my roll either lol. My only suggestion is to take deep breathes and focus on your breathing whenever you go into interviews or meet new people. Good Luck to you, enjoy the snow.

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Never stops snowing here on the Euro, Starts 00z Tuesday and is still snowing 12z Thursday.................

Euro is moving the NE bullseye in our general direction. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Scottie with a foul

[KoalaBeer]

Could be quite the battle here on the seacoast of NH to stay all snow. I won’t be surprised if I end up with 6” or 16”. Pretty much impossible to have strong confidence watching these models. 

[MRVexpat]

1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

GUYS!!!!  

 

I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.  

 

 

Dude!!! So rad. What is the name of the tune that is currently being played??? (If you see this in time). I've seen Club D'elf cover it a good amount of times at the Lizard Lounge in Cambridge where they have their residency. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro looked to shift ML goodies a decent tick or two South over NJ /SNY area. 

Was the MSLP further South or mid level low?  Curious bc it destroyed Philly now that i look close....i don't have any graphics

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

...and other times deliver over-performers like Dec 17.

Box seems to have favored the NAM/HREF dynamics for Monday afternoon. I think 8-12" Boston city proper, 10-14" suburbs / metro west is very realistic.

Verbatim off NAM, this will be a wild afternoon commute... would be 1-2" / rates for hours:

I thought that had better concordance between the surface, mid, and upper levels? 

[SnowHole413]

Thinking 6-8 inches at my hood. Will be a nice storm for the valley nevertheless 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Yukon Cornelius said:

Just give me something where I need to use the snowblower in north central MA for the first time since mid December. Thank you. 

I used (and damaged) mine last week   We should be good for 10-15"

[kdxken]

On 1/30/2021 at 4:27 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Coming in late Sunday night. Everything started to speed up yesterday after slowing prior days .. interesting though start time is Sunday night but end time hasn’t trended earlier 

What time tonight does it start?

[Henry's Weather]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Two 1 footers in a season was unheard of even in some of the great winters of yore.  Growing up I remember 1957-8, 1960-61, and 1968-69.   Of course the 1977-78 season but I was in California and already over 30 years old.    Savor the period we’re in now.....it may become far less frequent.

I do miss the years where we would get several 4-8 SWFE events, or lots of clippers. I love these big events as much as the next guy, but a nice 4 inch thump at dawn does it for me too. These years it's more of a feast or famine mode, it seems.

[8611Blizz]

Droughtstein

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Droughtstein

interesting take on color schema

[NorEastermass128]

14F and clear. SST down to 40F