Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everytime I see this poster I think of Mattmuthafuker. Some will remember 

He’s unreadable on Twitter . Was brutal during the campaign . Had to block . 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Reggie has me over 30" and GFS gives me under .25" of qpf!

Not sure why this set up in particular is so extreme with the qpf hole from nut to you.

[mattm4242]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everytime I see this poster I think of Mattmuthafuker. Some will remember 

Judging by the replies from others, I take it that’s not a good thing 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro looks a bit northeast through 24h

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro a tick NE. Will it matter wrt h7 stall though?

[Henry's Weather]

18z NAM initialized too far north with H5 low.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is definitely cooler compared to previous runs.

[78Blizzard]

21z RAP still bullish for most.  Has 1.6" qpf here before any taint, and then only 0.3" of taint before shutting off.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Deff tick e and cooler but drier with the qpf.

[Henry's Weather]

18z nam was too far north in general, heights ahead of the system were modeled a hair more north than forecast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[wxsniss]

Yep tick east, cooler but less prolific with qpf --- really key point is it did not make a last minute jump towards RGEM/old-GFS:

[Sn0waddict]

Anyone start an obs thread yet?

[TheSnowman]

Still got 40 minutes left as we watch the model returns.  
 

https://youtu.be/pqo_diAGkpQ

 

 

[mattm4242]

Cmon off our euro run, please be right.

It’s completely irrational, but I’m off the next two days, and I was hoping for a nice storm to distract me from the fact that the supermarket I’m a manager at is closing in 6 weeks.

[CoastalWx]

It actually tries to clip ern areas with a second wave..haha. I feel like the guidance is all over on Tuesday. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff tick e and cooler but drier with the qpf.

I’m expecting QPF to start toning down a bit as we get closer. They usually do in the final 18-24 hours. If we were actually going to get 1.5 to 2 inches of qpf, I’d be forecasting like 16-24 inches of snow here. 

I’ll acknowledge there’s a chance we end up going absolutely nuts for 10+ hours on the easterly firehose and still make or even exceed high end of the ranges, but more often than not, it’s hard to get those 20-burgers without midlevel goodies rotting over you. 

I’ll really be trying to parse the 00z data to see if there is any sign we are going to have the higher amounts. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

8 or 9” would be a pretty big bust here. I guess we’ll see? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

8 or 9” would be a pretty bug bust here. I guess we’ll see? 

You’re prob getting better than 10 to 1 ratios back that way anyway. You’ll get more than 8-9”. 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m expecting QPF to start toning down a bit as we get closer. They usually do in the final 18-24 hours. If we were actually going to get 1.5 to 2 inches of qpf, I’d be forecasting like 16-24 inches of snow here. 

I’ll acknowledge there’s a chance we end up going absolutely nuts for 10+ hours on the easterly firehose and still make or even exceed high end of the ranges, but more often than not, it’s hard to get those 20-burgers without midlevel goodies rotting over you. 

I’ll really be trying to parse the 00z data to see if there is any sign we are going to have the higher amounts. 

SWFE dynamics always lure some in with totally unrealistic qpf numbers .

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, mattm4242 said:

Cmon off our euro run, please be right.

It’s completely irrational, but I’m off the next two days, and I was hoping for a nice storm to distract me from the fact that the supermarket I’m a manager at is closing in 6 weeks.

Sorry to hear about the store, large chain?

 

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

Cmon off our euro run, please be right.

It’s completely irrational, but I’m off the next two days, and I was hoping for a nice storm to distract me from the fact that the supermarket I’m a manager at is closing in 6 weeks.

It's been a crap time and it's perfectly rational to want a fun escape.  

[dryslot]

Never stops snowing here on the Euro, Starts 00z Tuesday and is still snowing 12z Thursday.................

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

8 or 9” would be a pretty bug bust here. I guess we’ll see? 

Wiz said ratios will be higher than 10:1 so a foot is likely. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You’re prob getting better than 10 to 1 ratios back that way anyway. You’ll get more than 8-9”. 

I was just going by that 18z Euro clown map. NWS has 12-18 here. I’m thinking 13-14” would be great. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m expecting QPF to start toning down a bit as we get closer. They usually do in the final 18-24 hours. If we were actually going to get 1.5 to 2 inches of qpf, I’d be forecasting like 16-24 inches of snow here. 

I’ll acknowledge there’s a chance we end up going absolutely nuts for 10+ hours on the easterly firehose and still make or even exceed high end of the ranges, but more often than not, it’s hard to get those 20-burgers without midlevel goodies rotting over you. 

I’ll really be trying to parse the 00z data to see if there is any sign we are going to have the higher amounts. 

I'll be interested to see where the CF sets up. Some of these solutions may bring that east a tad and at least get you more into the colder side I think. That would really help out if it were to happen ahead of the H7 warm front, but it may play games right over you. 

[wxsniss]

Yeah there's a ridiculous spread in guidance for Tuesday...

Just compare RGEM vs. NAM for 18z Tues

[78Blizzard]

Euro put the squish on RGEM's NW VT 2" qpf.  That was never going to happen.

[CoastalWx]

One other factor for borderline peeps are the 3-4 hrs pf good lift into the DGZ as modeled. You may be like 35F at the onset, but maybe wetbulb to near 32 with those flakes helping to latent cool the atmosphere. Once the DGZ dries out, then it's over to a mix. 

[mattm4242]

5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Sorry to hear about the store, large chain?

 

Big Y in Saugus. Not a sales related closure as the store was kicking ass, the company and the landlord couldn’t come to terms on a lease renewal. They apparently have found a new location in Saugus to build a store, but that’s 18 months away, at best.

So all the managers and full timers choice is either go to another location, which Peabody is the only one within 58 miles of my house lol, or take an exit severance. And ending up at the Peabody store is a crapshoot at best, so I’m interviewing at a wholefoods in Beverly Tuesday, weather pending. I have pretty bad anxiety, so the thought of starting at a new place sucks, especially because I was really comfortable where I was.

Done ranting now lol.