Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[wxsniss]

Box AFD:

Heavy snow...

As mentioned above very cold/dry airmass over the region this evening will set the stage for an impressive front end thump of
heavy snow Monday afternoon and evening. Very strong easterly jet at 850 mb of 5 standard deviations will provide an Atlantic
fire hose of moisture to overrun the cold/dry airmass currently over the region. This strong forcing for ascent will be enhanced
by mid level instability Monday afternoon and evening as dry slot approaches. This entrainment of mid level dry air will
steepen mid level lapse rates and result in 1-2" hourly snowfall rates Mon afternoon and evening. HREF supports this with high
probs of 1-2" hourly rates. Even the HREF hourly mean is 1.5-2.0 inches. That combined with instability aloft, would not be
surprised if 3+ inch hourly rates for a time in the strongest snow bands, along with a low risk of TSSN! Nevertheless, travel
will be extremely difficult Monday afternoon and evening given these hourly snowfall rates. Given the evaporative cooling
potential initially, followed the colder guidance here. Although given low level temps are marginal across Eastern CT/RI/MA,
followed the lower SLR from the NBM which are less than 10-1. Although this may be offset early on as snow growth is very
favorable 18z-00z. Thus heavy wet snow across this region will increase the risk for snow loading issues/tree damage and power
outages.

[Hoth]

OBX radar looking juiced.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

His map won’t reflect that .

He's identify the red flags as to why.  Sound reasons in my weenie opinion.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

remember back in the eastern days when we had the radio/livestream special for large events, those were cool... looking forward to 12-16" here good luck all, it's almost go time.

Those radio shows were a KOD.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

OBX radar looking juiced.

My Bro in CNJ has 3” already. SWC painted 18”++ there. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

WPC maps show the sort of E slope enhancement on 18” probs for pocanos , Catskills , NW CT/ S Berks and even a Lower % shade over Orh Hills

Best shot per WPC mount pocano/ Tobyhanna 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Box AFD:

Heavy snow...

As mentioned above very cold/dry airmass over the region this evening will set the stage for an impressive front end thump of
heavy snow Monday afternoon and evening. Very strong easterly jet at 850 mb of 5 standard deviations will provide an Atlantic
fire hose of moisture to overrun the cold/dry airmass currently over the region. This strong forcing for ascent will be enhanced
by mid level instability Monday afternoon and evening as dry slot approaches. This entrainment of mid level dry air will
steepen mid level lapse rates and result in 1-2" hourly snowfall rates Mon afternoon and evening. HREF supports this with high
probs of 1-2" hourly rates. Even the HREF hourly mean is 1.5-2.0 inches. That combined with instability aloft, would not be
surprised if 3+ inch hourly rates for a time in the strongest snow bands, along with a low risk of TSSN! Nevertheless, travel
will be extremely difficult Monday afternoon and evening given these hourly snowfall rates. Given the evaporative cooling
potential initially, followed the colder guidance here. Although given low level temps are marginal across Eastern CT/RI/MA,
followed the lower SLR from the NBM which are less than 10-1. Although this may be offset early on as snow growth is very
favorable 18z-00z. Thus heavy wet snow across this region will increase the risk for snow loading issues/tree damage and power
outages.

That’s a keeper of an AFD for sure!

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The H7 closing off so early and actually becoming pretty tightly compact (is that even the proper term for it lol) seems to ingest alot of dry air ahead of it and while we do try to recover it might not be enough. Just another ughhhhhhhh here lol. 

Your getting me nervous ha!

And on que V 16 drops a tad more to about 13 to 14.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My Bro in CNJ has 3” already. SWC painted 18”++ there. 

I'm sure the off hr 18z Euro will be interesting, ha ha.

[Damage In Tolland]

Suspect we’ll wake up to Blizz warnings over a portion of SNE in the morning 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

22 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

GUYS!!!!  

 

I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.  

 

 

Wow, serious chops man. Sounds great

[GansettBay]

It looks like onset has been expedited to 7pm here in Westerly, but it doesn't seem to ramp up until early morning even though current radar seems solid. Is it expect to dry up a bit when it gets here?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If h85 is 25 miles east of H7 and h85 is saturated but h7 is marginal...that would still produce marginal snow growth within that 25 mile zone?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Your getting me nervous ha!

And on que V 16 drops a tad more to about 13 to 14.

We’ll get a foot and probably a touch more. Not historic but great. Don’t sweat it.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll get a foot and probably a touch more. Not historic but great. Don’t sweat it.

Cool. Have not reached 20 since I got 22 in NEMO when I was in Norwalk in 2013. Been too long.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll get a foot and probably a touch more. Not historic but great. Don’t sweat it.

Yup ..if that 7 H low would behave and just move ENE it would likely be different.   N NJ NE PA SNY elevations ...Crushburger

Still we take... a foot maybe a lil more  and enjoy and keep them good vibes goin

[tiger_deF]

As someone still fairly new to weather how come this event and its setup is considered more unusual?

[WeatherWilly]

NBC 10 Providence has upped totals a bit but still very conservative compared to ABC and CBS. I think they are going to bust pretty badly especially in southwest RI if the latest modeling holds true. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I mean LFG!! Just crank this. If this can’t amp you up for the storm then we’ve got problems. Let’s Go!

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Cool. Have not reached 20 since I got 22 in NEMO when I was in Norwalk in 2013. Been too long.

Haven’t hit 20 since Jan 11. I missed Feb 13. But another time/storm, we will. 

[J Paul Gordon]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nowhere near you.

Thanks. The idea of a foot plus of snow sodden with another inch of water on a steep Worcester hill like mine  is a terrifying thought. LOL. Snow blower can't handle it and at 65, I'm not so sure I can count on my ticker either.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup ..if that 7 H low would behave and just move ENE it would likely be different.   N NJ NE PA SNY elevations ...Crushburger

Still we take... a foot maybe a lil more  and enjoy and keep them good vibes goin

A h7 kick NE miracle from above would be welcomed but we not demanded. Appreciate what we get and vibe to it. GL up there.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, mattm4242 said:

Under a winter storm warning for 2 inches of snow, yippeeeee.

Everytime I see this poster I think of Mattmuthafuker. Some will remember 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Haven’t hit 20 since Jan 11. I missed Feb 13. But another time/storm, we will. 

don't give up so early, ratios may get us there.. let's see how it plays out. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

As someone still fairly new to weather how come this event and its setup is considered more unusual?

Not really that unusual.  Actually not that uncommon every couple of years or so. Very fast easterly flow at 850 mb is conducive to lots of lift in the atmosphere 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everytime I see this poster I think of Mattmuthafuker. Some will remember 

I actually thought it was him, ha.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A h7 kick NE miracle from above would be welcomed but we not demanded. Appreciate what we get and vibe to it. GL up there.

Luke---are you in the BOX or OKX CWA?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

don't give up so early, ratios may get us there.. let's see how it plays out. 

You’re right. I’m not giving up though I just don’t expect it. Still, my 12-18” range is very satisfying and I’ll enjoy every minute of it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Luke---are you in the BOX or OKX CWA?

OKX by one town. 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everytime I see this poster I think of Mattmuthafuker. Some will remember 

I just thought the same thing .