Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

I think BOX’s 12-18 is a good forecast for here. 20-burger is hard to get unless you get stuck in ML banding which I don’t really see anywhere until out in Catskills down to NNJ. 

Only wrench is if the currier and ives stuff Tuesday night and Wednesday decides to add a few inches. 

[Kbosch]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not that much on Tuesday imo.  But we’ll see? 

Agreed. We're certainly rolling on Monday and we'll be wrapped up overnight for anything meaningful.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah though I do think it’ll add up another 3-6/4-8 Tuesday into Wednesday under the rotting bands/ ULL

maybe 5-10" more w lollis to 14" additional. lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I am interested with the Reggie idea of more moisture streaming up from the South into E NE as the ULL is still SW of us by Tuesday P.M. That could be a wild card in and of itself...mid level temps seems borderline for some areas thou surface temps away from coast seem to be below freezing.  Maybe some big ole chunks falling from sky. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

maybe 5-10" more w lollis to 14" additional. lol

3-6” totally realistic 

[J Paul Gordon]

Rain/snow line? BOX discussion mentions mix and changeover for Eastern MA, Eastern CT, and RI.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6” totally realistic 

The fact that the 5H low hangs back at NYC/ even W CT longitude into 6z Wednesday is interesting ...i want to see some surprises late Tuesday and Wednesday ..but i think they may be favored well N over NE NY / NVT as that 5H low is elongated N-S...  and maybe also into Eastern areas of New england ..esp SE NH into  Maine from that meso low depending on its path and wether it tucks toward Jimmy earlier on Tues pm  or more SE of portland maine later. 

I would like to pick Scott or Will's brain on that meso low and possible path /influence/ Reggie went wild with it. 

[wxeyeNH]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Reggie?  43.4” at BTV for Kuchie?   

 

Reggie has me over 30" and GFS gives me under .25" of qpf!

[weatherwiz]

Tuesday evening might be a bit impressive in terms of some re-development snows across parts of NYS down into eastern PA and parts of NJ. Super steep mid-level lapse rates combined with some pretty impressive llvl lift. Could see some nasty snow squalls there but I think the good remain west of our area.

[PhineasC]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Reggie has me over 30" and GFS gives me under .25" of qpf!

GFS doesn't have a clue on this storm. I wouldn't worry about it. 

[moneypitmike]

It's incredible to me that at this short lead time there is so much uncertainty.  Combine that with the duration of this, we could yet see some interesting evolutions.

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Rain/snow line? BOX discussion mentions mix and changeover for Eastern MA, Eastern CT, and RI.

Nowhere near you.

[weathafella]

Interesting despite the angst over the old gfs muthufukkas are the same this run.

[BuildingScienceWx]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

It's incredible to me that at this short lead time there is so much uncertainty.  Combine that with the duration of this, we could yet see some interesting evolutions.

Agreed, I feel like this is almost always the case (save a couple storms throughout the years). Too much data to look at!

Will someone, maybe Tip, be starting an obs thread? Leading precip is working its way in to the Northeast Kingdom...

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS doesn't have a clue on this storm. I wouldn't worry about it. 

Phin,  it always seems to exaggerate the upslope and downslope qpf.  Euro is much better in my opinion for the mountainous areas.  In general Plymouth NH is a bit of a snow hole with the Whites to the northeast

[TheSnowman]

GUYS!!!!  

 

I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.  

 

 

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah though I do think it’ll add up another 3-6/4-8 Tuesday into Wednesday under the rotting bands/ ULL

Stein disagrees

When you get up Tuesday morning, if you do have power, the good news is that the wind will be slackening and precipitation will be fairly light. There is likely to be some additional rain or snow, but I’m not forecasting any accumulation beyond a coating or an inch

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, kdxken said:

Stein disagrees

When you get up Tuesday morning, if you do have power, the good news is that the wind will be slackening and precipitation will be fairly light. There is likely to be some additional rain or snow, but I’m not forecasting any accumulation beyond a coating or an inch

Why wouldn’t there be power? And Stein is probably the last person anyone should be following lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The fact that the 5H low hangs back at NYC/ even W CT longitude into 6z Wednesday is interesting ...i want to see some surprises late Tuesday and Wednesday ..but i think they may be favored well N over NE NY / NVT as that 5H low is elongated N-S...  and maybe also into Eastern areas of New england ..esp SE NH into  Maine from that meso low depending on its path and wether it tucks toward Jimmy earlier on Tues pm  or more SE of portland maine later. 

I would like to pick Scott or Will's brain on that meso low and possible path /influence/ Reggie went wild with it. 

[tavwtby]

remember back in the eastern days when we had the radio/livestream special for large events, those were cool... looking forward to 12-16" here good luck all, it's almost go time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is the fascination with Dave Epstein? lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, tavwtby said:

remember back in the eastern days when we had the radio/livestream special for large events, those were cool... looking forward to 12-16" here good luck all, it's almost go time.

@MJO812 or Garth can fire up the Zoom...I'm game.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@MJO812 or Garth can fire up the Zoom...I'm game.

I remember one of those a few years ago.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@MJO812 or Garth can fire up the Zoom...I'm game.

Fire it up

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

18z Reginald upped totals here from 12z.

Absolutely demolishes NW Vermont, a place I am told is only interested in 3" or so to freshen the pack.

@powderfreak

Ha, anything 3”+ is the level of satisfaction with any event or snowfall... meaning the RGEM would be extremely satisfying.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

remember back in the eastern days when we had the radio/livestream special for large events, those were cool... looking forward to 12-16" here good luck all, it's almost go time.

Having a radio show was the kiss of death for every threat.  lol

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...NAM gives Boston 2.18" QPF..

It's snowing 20" ORH-BED-YOU

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS doesn't have a clue on this storm. I wouldn't worry about it. 

Tomorrow night.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's snowing 20" ORH-BED-YOU

His map won’t reflect that .

[wxsniss]

Box AFD:

Heavy snow...

As mentioned above very cold/dry airmass over the region this evening will set the stage for an impressive front end thump of
heavy snow Monday afternoon and evening. Very strong easterly jet at 850 mb of 5 standard deviations will provide an Atlantic
fire hose of moisture to overrun the cold/dry airmass currently over the region. This strong forcing for ascent will be enhanced
by mid level instability Monday afternoon and evening as dry slot approaches. This entrainment of mid level dry air will
steepen mid level lapse rates and result in 1-2" hourly snowfall rates Mon afternoon and evening. HREF supports this with high
probs of 1-2" hourly rates. Even the HREF hourly mean is 1.5-2.0 inches. That combined with instability aloft, would not be
surprised if 3+ inch hourly rates for a time in the strongest snow bands, along with a low risk of TSSN! Nevertheless, travel
will be extremely difficult Monday afternoon and evening given these hourly snowfall rates. Given the evaporative cooling
potential initially, followed the colder guidance here. Although given low level temps are marginal across Eastern CT/RI/MA,
followed the lower SLR from the NBM which are less than 10-1. Although this may be offset early on as snow growth is very
favorable 18z-00z. Thus heavy wet snow across this region will increase the risk for snow loading issues/tree damage and power
outages.