Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[WeatherWilly]

Getting closer and closer to nowcasting time and still have models predicting 8-10 inches here, and forecasts predicting 1-2. Not that I expect to be close to the jackpot, but it's getting pretty laughable at this late stage.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll trade you for your past six years and and an advisory event to be named later.

I don't think I've done all that much better. You smoked me last December, and in 2 of the March 18 events. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Borderline here too apparently 

You're in a good spot for quite a bit of heavy wet snow.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. 

Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well.

We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. 

And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist. 

Yep, PF just ripping the flesh off the giraffes trying to cross the Congo Basin. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think I've done all that much better. You smoked me last December, and in 2 of the March 18 events. 

Like I said, if we could execute the trade, then I'd sign now.

Just need commissioner Wood's approval.

[South Shore Slop]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have low confidence here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More NE, SE and SW of me....looks about right.

NARCAN?

[WinterWolf]

1.3” of qpf on the Euro...we take and are happy. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any general warning flags?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

NARCAN?

I have a DNR....signed it last night.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a feeling the meat of the firehose will be south of me, like March 2013...I know its progressive, but I feel like it will be better south me, then the H7 low will curl around  north of me.

It definitely could do that. Model guidance has the firehose the strongest down in the southern half of SNE and it slowly weakens as it moves north. 

The way you could get lucky though is the CF. This is gonna have a tight CF I think and you might spend a decent amount of time barely on the cold side of it which enhances the snowfall. So that’s what I’d be rooting for there (obviously in addition to hoping the firehose doesn’t weaken much up there). 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm seeing a Euro solution that's 'denting' the 850 mb isotherm SE more so than priors and that - as I've outlined before,...- is climate friendlier than that warm intrusion look. 

Considering having 1030+ polar high draped through Ontario/ N/NE of Maine...and already entrenched in the region, a correction and closer discrete handling of the isotherm/compression toward SE zones ... pretty much has to happen here - sorry. 

Also, again .. again .. again .. + 1C at 850 with sub above between that level and the growth region of the sounding, and isothermal beneath that... inside of which is a saturated cauldron of dense falling snow is only going to cause parachutes to 1/4 visibility .. You really have to be +2 C through perhaps 100 mb to get all the way to cat paws, if/when fall rates are heavy..  in that sort of UVM parked over isothermal sounding -

This crushed the 1997 Dec 23rd forecasters when the 850 was +1 then...   I remember that as the then, "ETA" FOUS had +3 at the SFC, and +2 and -1 at 980, 900, 800 mb levels respectively, ... how did that turn out.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It definitely could do that. Model guidance has the firehose the strongest down in the southern half of SNE and it slowly weakens as it moves north. 

The way you could get lucky though is the CF. This is gonna have a tight CF I think and you might spend a decent amount of time barely on the cold side of it which enhances the snowfall. So that’s what I’d be rooting for there (obviously in addition to hoping the firehose doesn’t weaken much up there). 

I just see an easy path to a screw job here.....again. Useless latitude FTL....far enough north to miss the meat of SNE goods, yet far enough south to miss NNE goods.

[NeonPeon]

10 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

Why are we still scratching our heads less than 24 hours before the onset? Have there been no improvements at all in our modeling capabilities?

There have. The more improvements there are, the more we won't accept uncertainty in increasingly fine margins.

And long live the bust. The day we have one hundred percent confidence, is the day it's no fun anymore.

[Typhoon Tip]

What a fantastic bomb on the Euro!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Snowmageddon part 2 on euro?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NARCAN?

Tossed.

Its too warm at the surface due to H925 and lift.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just see an easy path to a screw job here.....again. Useless latitude FTL....far enough north to miss the meat of SNE goods, yet far enough south to miss NNE goods.

I think you're in a good spot for a big snow event. I don't know man....if you miss out..maybe it's be a few inches? I'd sign up to be in Methuen if I could. 

[TheSnowman]

And there is Another Game!  To go along with the KU Simulator Game to learn about Meteorology.  

 

Snowstorm Trades.  I need to start a thread for that.  I would trade the Blizzard of 2015, December 28, 2013, and December 13, 2007 for being in the middle of the December 41" in 11 hour bomb.  

[Chrisrotary12]

Not as bullish as Wiz....but here's what I got.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think you're in a good spot for a big snow event. I don't know man....if you miss out..maybe it's be a few inches? I'd sign up to be in Methuen if I could. 

Yea, it will be decent. I'm just sick of missing out on the few inches.

Anyway, I'm sure Holliston will be one of the higher amounts.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I'll be at work so yeah.

Jeff Toobin Zoom call?

 

Feeling really good about my spot for this.  I might be closing to a dive into the Kennebec at Pit2 based on one of the EC maps that was posted.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think you're in a good spot for a big snow event. I don't know man....if you miss out..maybe it's be a few inches? I'd sign up to be in Methuen if I could. 

You’re gonna have a lot of failures in the chase aiming for the jackpot all time. You’ll feel like Wily Mo Pena a lot...tons of Ks but then you get the high of him hitting one 490 feet when you finally hit the jack. 

[Heisy]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What a fantastic bomb on the Euro!

Ukie had that look at 144 too I thought this was hella ominous, probably want that ridge a bit farther east,  but threat is Legit, gefs have it too

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

FINAL CALL:

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What a fantastic bomb on the Euro!

To thy knickers at least. Possibly thy knockers.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you're in a good spot for a big snow event. I don't know man....if you miss out..maybe it's be a few inches? I'd sign up to be in Methuen if I could. 

You guys always say  he is in a good spot lol . Every time . Keep in mind he isn’t looking for 6”

I mean , I’m not saying he’s looking bad but it’s funny 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You’re gonna have a lot of failures in the chase aiming for the jackpot all time. You’ll feel like Wily Mo Pena a lot...tons of Ks but then you get the high of him hitting one 490 feet when you finally hit the jack. 

How about just not having one of the lowest totals in the region relative to average? Not a JP...this is the third consecutive year....though I should pass se MA after this.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

FINAL CALL:

Makes sense to me. Good job

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You guys always see he is in a good spot lol . Every time 

Because they always try to counter me pointing out why I will be one of the lower totals within the non precip type issue region, and I'm usually right.