Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The purely synoptic stuff doesn’t even matter for you...even if you get zero on the WCB (which won’t happen, you’ll get several minimum), you get upslope farts for like 48 hours after that...just wringing our the leftover synoptic moisture thrown around the backside. 

That Gulf of Maine low and the mid-level features track pretty close to local studies climo favored track.  It's a deep NW flow all the way to 500mb later on for sure.

Just gotta watch that trend for the Gulf of Maine low to get its act together faster, could put down some of Phin's Pot Roast first then dip J.Spin's bread in the leftovers.

[NorEastermass128]

The revenge of coastal NE MA will be so nice when/if it arrives. Congrats interior folks. Shoot to the moon!

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

White pine forests flattened.  Don't your folks have a lot of those?  I remember some storm you posted photos of like half the trees down, ha.

The images of the trees they lost from when we moved there in ‘97 until now are striking. Those things are too tall for strong winds and heavy wet snow. But they might have issues if the snow holds on. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes agreed. My gut is that it is closer to water than 495 belt. Like I could see that 128 stretch from Newton down to Canton and then south to Easton/Mansfield being a trouble spot for that. 

Even your ‘hood might be a really bad spot for power grid issues. Like even if you get “only” 8 inches of snow, it could be 7 to 1 mashed potatoes or something. 

Yeah it’s funny how cold Nam is on BUFKIT for BOS.  We shall see. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, Yankees29 said:

I would have been suicidal 

He was. We moved him back here and have been working with him for years to get him to the point he’s at now. 

[CoastalWx]

Jesus HRRR effing slays. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

RGEM is still crazy here. Pretty much an outlier with the huge totals, but Euro isn’t too far behind. 

I'm intrigued by the oddity of the RGEM.  Never say never, but it's like some absolutely massive wave break to get that sharp demarcation.  Like air just falling off a cliff.

Pretty cool prog.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Jesus HRRR effing slays. 

Tossed 

[CoastalWx]

Brett might be one of those sort of benefiting a tad with longitude. Despite his complaints, he’s up near Easton/Raynham side of Taunton. 

[Cold Miser]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jan 11 like storm. Mega 5 inch per hour band brought 50 mph winds in a 58 dbz band.

aaaaaanndd there it was. EPIC DEATH BAND.

(Not to be confused with epic death metal band)

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I'm intrigued by the oddity of the RGEM.  Never say never, but it's like some absolutely massive wave break to get that sharp demarcation.  Like air just falling off a cliff.

Pretty cool prog.

Yeah that is weird. Some mesos do that. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tossed 

Why?

[Damage In Tolland]

I still can’t quite tell if this wil be 28 degree powder in CT or 31-32 paste 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nammy more tucked thru hr12.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Why?

It’s always too amped 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder if we can get a little downslopey, sublimational assist up here.

Translate?  That would hurt us no?

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

White pine forests flattened.  Don't your folks have a lot of those?  I remember some storm you posted photos of like half the trees down, ha.

White pines are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for.  Straight long duration winds they do fine,  it’s when you get swirling winds in severe convection that you get them to snap in half

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That Gulf of Maine low and the mid-level features track pretty close to local studies climo favored track.  It's a deep NW flow all the way to 500mb later on for sure.

Just gotta watch that trend for the Gulf of Maine low to get its act together faster, could put down some of Phin's Pot Roast first then dip J.Spin's bread in the leftovers.

Yeah normally you’d get a huge deform band from that track...only issue is that the low is pretty occluded by the time it gets there. It does try and get rejuvenated a bit though so there might be a reintensification of  the banding. But even if there isn’t, you’ll prob get like 30 to 1 ratios there from a rotting 15-20 dbz ML band, lol. I fully expect you to be posting radar shots and saying “can’t believe how hard it is nuking under this 15-20 dbz stuff!!! It’s stacking up like arctic fluff lake effect!”

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Guessing this will be a wet snow? I wish that screw zone here would fill in

I hope some mets can answer that. I think for our area it’s upper 20’s and fluff

[NorEastermass128]

Come on HRRR. Make the NWS eat their hat. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I hope some mets can answer that. I think for our area it’s upper 20’s and fluff

You will be in a powder zone for most of it. 

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, White Rain said:

HRRR through hr 42.....

Oh how I wish that were true

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Every big-ish coastal just give ORH 18” and move on to other locals. Never a doubt there.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah normally you’d get a huge deform band from that track...only issue is that the low is pretty occluded by the time it gets there. It does try and get rejuvenated a bit though so there might be a reintensification of  the banding. But even if there isn’t, you’ll prob get like 30 to 1 ratios there from a rotting 15-20 dbz ML band, lol. I fully expect you to be posting radar shots and saying “can’t believe how hard it is nuking under this 15-20 dbz stuff!!! It’s stacking up like arctic fluff lake effect!”

Could definitely see that.  Soundings show a pretty good couplet of DGZ and lift given that the DGZ looks to be 600-750mb level around these parts.... right in line with that ML lift.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 

 

Just saying if we do downslope maybe it’ll help us mix down some stronger gusts like March 2017 did. It just caught my eye that the weenie gust maps had a max over my head for the first time ever.

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

White pines are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for.  Straight long duration winds they do fine,  it’s when you get swirling winds in severe convection that you get them to snap in half

Bend, don't break.  Birches, too.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You will be in a powder zone for most of it. 

That’s what I thought yesterday but Scoots said 31-32 until near the end on Tuesday PM

[dryslot]

12z Nam a couple tics tucked west@15z Monday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nam should wam.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nam should wam.

You should like it........