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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Kinda maybe on some models. Def At least the N trend has stopped.

But I think the 6z Canadian has either amplified, or just brings the jackpot back a bit east from PA to NJ/NYC/WCT. 

Certainly did.... oh canada 

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2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

In climo and memory Warwick is sort of a common borderline... mixed, not as much snow as Foster/Woonsocket etc.

But if you’re in Westerly you’re in trouble 

I lived there a long time (N Attleboro) seeing many forecast busts due to unforseen or early bl issues. Living near the S coast will do that.

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Could be some bust potential north of the Pike in WNE up through this area. Some modeling blows its load over NJ and S CT before redeveloping for ENE. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Either way it’s probably a decent, but nbd, storm for this area. Probably a 6-10” deal with an outside shot for a little more. Good luck to those OKX zones...it’s been awhile for down there.

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Just catching up on the 00Z runs and 6Z runs, look fantastic albeit with the usual caveats and red flags. Not an easy forecast but it seems we have much better agreement than that mess at 12Z yesterday. Id like to see a little continuity with the 12Z runs today before we put out a final call. Tomorrow is prep and warning day. No travel issues for anyone in CT until overnight. 

 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Could be some bust potential north of the Pike in WNE up through this area. Some modeling blows its load over NJ and S CT before redeveloping for ENE. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Either way it’s probably a decent, but nbd, storm for this area. Probably a 6-10” deal with an outside shot for a little more. Good luck to those OKX zones...it’s been awhile for down there.

That's exactly how I've been thinking, mostly because of the lower qpf in Merrimack county on most models for 3-4 days.  clear signal from most models just like banding signals for us for a few days before dec16 17.   Also zones say north winds her not NE, and that's not good.  Could be boxing day sand.  Euro qpf overnight was better tho so maybe we luck our way to a foot.

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Just catching up on the 00Z runs and 6Z runs, look fantastic albeit with the usual caveats and red flags. Not an easy forecast but it seems we have much better agreement than that mess at 12Z yesterday. Id like to see a little continuity with the 12Z runs today before we put out a final call. Tomorrow is prep and warning day. No travel issues for anyone in CT until overnight. 

 

Huh? It’s snowing by dawn 

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