Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area is the one spot in all of NE where the EURO actually got worse....of course.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Map?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That map is a perfect illustration of why my locale blows big ones.....never far enough north, but often too far north...but thank god its 7 degrees now w -4SD NAO

[Sn0waddict]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wrong.  Ray got 20 inches.

How does this remind you of that storm?

[weathafella]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

How does this remind you of that storm?

Nice front thump, coastal taint inside 128 south if the pike, back to snow.

[Deck Pic]

0z Euro...10:1

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That map is a perfect illustration of why my locale blows big ones.....never far enough north, but often too far north...but thank god its 7 degrees now w -4SD NAO

That has to be too conservative, the PivotalWX and other maps are better. Is this based on Kuchera ratios? (FWIW for my backyard it's not too off from those but also a little conservative, I'll certainly take either). 

[TheSnowman]

15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It was my area that got nothing

I was in Ukraine trying to find Hunter Biden.  
 

No actually just playing.  Think I got 12”.  Probably, because I Missed it.  Had I been there?  11” just to tick me off.  

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nice front thump, coastal taint inside 128 south if the pike, back to snow.

Yes, I'd have to think that's worth more than the 3" in Boston that map shows. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That has to be too conservative, the PivotalWX and other maps are better. Is this based on Kuchera ratios? (FWIW for my backyard it's not too off from those but also a little conservative, I'll certainly take either). 

It's too warm...

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Nice front thump, coastal taint inside 128 south if the pike, back to snow.

I think this is where our regional differences show, despite both being in New England, because I don’t even know where i128 is lol sounds like the equivalent of the Merritt parkway here. I’ll take your word for it in regards to the Boston area.
 

 

[TheSnowman]

Fixed it.  

[jm1220]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's too warm...

Right, I can see the layout of what it's showing with the min for the CT River valley etc but the amounts to me are just crazy low. I'd bet good money Northborough MA does better than me in a Miller B. Boston I could see the easterly flow and matured low killing after a time. 

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That has to be too conservative, the PivotalWX and other maps are better. Is this based on Kuchera ratios? (FWIW for my backyard it's not too off from those but also a little conservative, I'll certainly take either). 

The Euro has a very warm coastal front messing up this storm for many of us in SNE, at least if you believe the surface temp projections. Up to 37 degrees at the height of the storm. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Fozz said:

The Euro has a very warm coastal front messing up this storm for many of us in SNE, at least if you believe the surface temp projections. Up to 37 degrees at the height of the storm. 

From my experience these front-enders don't just totally crap out like this even for you guys. It should cool the column enough at least for a few good hours. For the Cape and places like Plymouth sure I guess. 

[Fozz]

Just now, jm1220 said:

From my experience these front-enders don't just totally crap out like this even for you guys. It should cool the column enough at least for a few good hours. For the Cape and places like Plymouth sure I guess. 

Yeah I'm skeptical that it gets that warm around here. Maybe around 33, but based on what I know of my climo I don't see it crapping out like that. At least not in my part of the state. 

There could certainly be a sharp difference between here and Warwick, let alone further south.

[jm1220]

Just now, Fozz said:

Yeah I'm skeptical that it gets that warm. Maybe around 33, but based on what I know of my climo I don't see it crapping out like that. At least not in my part of the state. 

I would think you're in a decent place N of Providence for a while anyway. And I have to think it will end up a little less amped and more the way Miller B's typically turn out than the Euro has in the end. 

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I was in Ukraine trying to find Hunter Biden.  
 

No actually just playing.  Think I got 12”.  Probably, because I Missed it.  Had I been there?  11” just to tick me off.  

If you're talking about early December 2019, that was around 10" here.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The Euro has a very warm coastal front messing up this storm for many of us in SNE, at least if you believe the surface temp projections. Up to 37 degrees at the height of the storm. 

If 925 is -2 no way that happens 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If 925 is -2 no way that happens 

Agree.

[blizzard24]

major  snowstorm with totals 12- 19 inches for all inland sne area and near 12 inches for boston  to many people look at every model run not me .

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

major  snowstorm with totals 12- 19 inches for all inland sne area and near 12 inches for boston  to many people look at every model run not me .

Don't worry, Kev doesn't look, either.

[The 4 Seasons]

1888?

 

[IowaStorm05]

56 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah I'm skeptical that it gets that warm around here. Maybe around 33, but based on what I know of my climo I don't see it crapping out like that. At least not in my part of the state. 

There could certainly be a sharp difference between here and Warwick, let alone further south.

In climo and memory Warwick is sort of a common borderline... mixed, not as much snow as Foster/Woonsocket etc.

But if you’re in Westerly you’re in trouble 

[IowaStorm05]

And 6z NAM comes in still quite south 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS got a bit better...slightly colder. Continued trend of less banding in W NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

And 6z NAM comes in still quite south 

Biggest take away is that the NE trended ended. Back to the SW a bit with the JP zone out west. Its more realistic across SNE....cut back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think DT has the right idea...maybe a bit aggressive in NE MA:

[BrianW]

[IowaStorm05]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Biggest take away is that the NE trended ended. Back to the SW a bit with the JP zone out west. Its more realistic across SNE....cut back.

Kinda maybe on some models. Def At least the N trend has stopped.

But I think the 6z Canadian has either amplified, or just brings the jackpot back a bit east from PA to NJ/NYC/WCT.