Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[STILL N OF PIKE]

UKIE has that low tucked SE of NJ (like most) but the low is awfully elongated NE and then by 18z Tuesday it's pop's the second low at 986 Over James and has decently cold air just west and some pretty heavy rates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was def better. 

It was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston like Juno in 1/2015. 

It can happen with a huge NAO, see 2010..but its very rare.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can happen with a huge NAO, see 2010..but its very rare.

Yes that was definitely the fluke season. There was the mid Feb 2010 one also that actually did max out west of NYC. The blocking/confluence is relaxing this time though so hopefully not a repeat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM rebounded a bit....nice shift ne in the mid atl.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS and GEPS didn't really improve..

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS and GEPS didn't really improve..

Fukkem.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Fukkem.

Yea, def. OP time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Really looking good for W CT to get in the goods now....need another solid 24-36 hours of trending for the rest of us.

[BombsAway1288]

NBC10 not impressed with the storm. Has BOS 3-6 and their max zones west of 495 have 9-12 but stated probably closer to 9.

This is an EPA/NJ/NYC storm. Almost all the models tonight have juiced them up to 18-24+ while lowering EMass/Boston to under 6".

Might be too early but I think the writing is one the wall with this one.

Congrats Tri-State area.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

0z HREF only goes out till 0z Tuesday but you can see N NJ 12-18 and no PA Jackpot

looking forward to looking at that model more tommorrow

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

(That the mean snow totals not the max)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF only goes out till 0z Tuesday but you can see N NJ 12-18 and no PA Jackpot

looking forward to looking at that model more tommorrow

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

(That the mean snow totals not the max)

Ground zero slowly shifting from PA to Tri state area, which is the right direction....long shot for anyone east of ORH.

[jm1220]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ground zero slowly shifting from PA to Tri state area, which is the right direction....long shot for anyone east of ORH.

Cheers to that!! 

I have to think that front end 6 hours or so produces for most of you as well even in SE MA. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ground zero slowly shifting from PA to Tri state area, which is the right direction....long shot for anyone east of ORH.

Just for laughs, this is the max snow over a 24 hour period ending 8pm Monday

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=conus

It's just sorta beginning to go wild for Eastern areas on that model. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=qpf_001h_mean_ptype&sector=conus

[78Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS and GEPS didn't really improve..

I thought it was time to stick to the ops?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I thought it was time to stick to the ops?

it is, just saying...I mean, I would rather have seen them improve...

[40/70 Benchmark]

You could see the 18z EURO looking less banded in W NE.....better dynamics relay...

[TheSnowman]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM rebounded a bit....nice shift ne in the mid atl.

 

So 6" for Me and Glop..... with Pennsylvania.....  

 

48"!?!?!?!  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Did everyone go to bed Lol

Euro looks very similiar perhaps a hair better than 12z  on Pivotal clown.  BIG THUMP on front end

Ya 850's were a definite tick milder and  0c and above  during day on Tues for tickled areas of 495 and near Merrimack valley for a cpl hours with dryslot and up to  5C 850 over SE mass 12z to 18z.  925's still cold from Boston NW (below 0c). 

[weathafella]

Reminds me of 12/1-2,2019

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Reminds me of 12/1-2,2019

I don’t recall anything spectacular then.....

[ice1972]

I don’t recall anything all that spectacular for years.....lol

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I don’t recall anything spectacular then.....

It wasn’t, it was an Albany jackpot. It was a quick couple of inches then rain here. 

[Henry's Weather]

I'll take 1.5 inches of liquid with 925 mb temps never more than -1 C.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

It wasn’t, it was an Albany jackpot. It was a quick couple of inches then rain here. 

Wrong.  Ray got 20 inches.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wrong.  Ray got 20 inches.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Greg said:

It was my area that got nothing

[jm1220]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Brutal for southern CT. 

Yeah that wasn't fun. I think as the CCB pivoted I ended up with 3" or so. One I'd rather forget. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO still blows fatties around here.

Better for W CT.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO still blows fatties around here.

Better for W CT.

Map?