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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, TheSnowman said:

Are you Serious!?!?  
 

Also, can someone explain how we All don’t trust the NAM, MAINLY because it’s always Too Amped and Too Far NW.  

 

BUT HERE it’s the Furthest SE!!  A trend in store tomorrow?  

I wouldn’t toss any models right now...except maybe the Canadian suite which is probably still too far SW though they made a decent jump toward other guidance at 00z. 

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Right now, the difference between a SEMA, RI Jackpot zone versus the current modeling of a NE PA jackpot potential evolution is a disturbance in the northern stream that phases in the backside (west side) of the long wave trough centered over PA/OH.  As the trough enters the western Atlantic and the Gulf Stream, this energy phases in the backside and in turn allows the H5 low to close off sooner and further southwest.  If for some reason this disturbance is delayed in some fashion, the H5 does not close off until off the coast of NJ and therefore the warming and the dry slot and the occlusion does not happen as fast or as soon and is further northeast.  Again, just a minor detail that could have dramatic consequences.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t toss any models right now...except maybe the Canadian suite which is probably still too far SW though they made a decent jump toward other guidance at 00z. 

Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston like Juno in 1/2015. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston. 

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

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4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

And for me that was a very close shave but I just missed out on the really heavy snow. The eastern half of Long Island had up to 18" as the coastal storm blossomed. It's always a close shave here one way or the other. Nemo in Feb 2013 had over 30" in central Long Island, Juno in 2015 had over 2 feet, etc. It just never quite made it to NYC. But there are others where it does like Dec 2003, and the flukes like 12/30/00 and 2/25/10 which unfortunately for you guys cut due north. 

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8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

Between that storm and March 2001, it was quite the nasty winter for him.

But I remember the later years much better. PDII was among his best.

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