Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

CMC is a weird look... congrats Plymouth county?

Yeah sort of oblong. I'm not worried at this stage on shape. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s interesting though when you roll it 12hrs later:

Showing the capture?

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... ( moderate potency + duration ) /2   solution there

want to stress the distinction between a 9 to 12 hour snow bomb with CCB wind event off a bomb juggernaut

-vs-

a 24 hour moderate snow with occasional heavy bands and occasional lighter bands, in moderate climate storm winds...

Those two scenarios get one to the same impact destination.  

That is, of course...how all this looks now. 

Also stressing the point ...we are still really seeing the models responding to period of time more so than a specific event - altho the latter is formulating.   You can punt the 48 hours of constant hosing snow and wind as though New England and upper M/A will sit that long inside choke flow off the nozzle of a Valian snow making machine ...  

uh, you know better than that - c'mon

I still see the protracted moderate impact as the higher likelihood.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah sort of oblong. I'm not worried at this stage on shape. 

This is the time period when the models sort of lose the system...not worried

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS def trended a hair east and less impressive, but really noise.

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z GEFS pretty far SE but nice long E fetch.

At this range, I'd much rather have it in that spot. Always need room for that last minute correction NW.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Showing the capture?

Yea. Seems to do that se of Jimmy. Not worth much at this stage but something to keep in mind going forward.

[dryslot]

Finding any solutions east at this lead is really no surprise though, Come Fri-Sat would be another story if it persist.

[Henry's Weather]

Would be interesting to compare the miller Bs which come from the southern stream and redevelop and those which come from the northern stream.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

This is the time period when the models sort of lose the system...not worried

Said that this morning too. 

[78Blizzard]

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

UKMET 126 132 138 144HR sfc progs improvement from the 00Z run.

 

Most of that in  ESNE falls as rain, verbatim:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup ... so, we're now turning pages into the chapters of this saga, where both the operational model runs attempt to gaslight ... but, people allow them to -

I think we used to call this middle range black out back in the day...

 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Would be interesting to compare the miller Bs which come from the southern stream and redevelop and those which come from the northern stream.

I think the southern ones fit more into the A category and not up as much to my liking anyways as they usually already have shot there load before they get here if at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Would be interesting to compare the miller Bs which come from the southern stream and redevelop and those which come from the northern stream.

Feb '78 was the former...

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb '78 was the former...

Feb '78 was basically all northern stream.

Feb '13 had southern stream involvement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Feb '78 was basically all northern stream.

Feb '13 had southern stream involvement.

There was a weak wave coming up from the south, too. it moved off of the Carolinas...

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was a weak wave coming up from the south, too. it moved off of the Carolinas...

True northern stream ignited that wave.   Southern stream wasn’t involved 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

True northern stream ignited that wave.   Southern stream wasn’t involved 

I disagree.

It was mainly N stream, but there was a meager contribution from the south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

http://archive.boston.com/news/weather/articles/2008/02/08/national_weather_services_history_of_the_blizzard_of_1978/#:~:text=THIS STORM IS KNOWN AS,OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WOULD BECOME THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FORMED FROM A DIVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE SYSTEMS JOINED FORCES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON THE NIGHT OF MONDAY FEBRUARY 5 TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...AS AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW MARCHED ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

[Henry's Weather]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb '78 was basically all northern stream.

Feb '13 had southern stream involvement.

yeah that was my memory as well. CIPS not biting on the Feb 2013 comparison but those analogs are dubious anyways 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

yeah that was my memory as well. CIPS not biting on the Feb 2013 comparison but those analogs are dubious anyways 

Has March 2001....

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree.

It was mainly N stream, but there was a meager contribution from the south.

I mean, it's almost non-existent on the H5 charts...maybe technically there was a leftover entity that helped focus the cyclogenesis, but I don't think it was very significant in the scheme of the '78 storm.

 

Feb '13 on the other hand had a major southern stream player that the northern stream phased with.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, it's almost non-existent on the H5 charts...maybe technically there was a leftover entity that helped focus the cyclogenesis, but I don't think it was very significant in the scheme of the '78 storm.

 

Feb '13 on the other hand had a major southern stream player that the northern stream phased with.

Well, okay...I'm not saying it was a major contributor...all I am saying is that technically speaking, the notion that the blizzard of 1978 was 100% born of the N stream is a misperception.

I am not sure what the specific criteria is for distinguishing between those two types of miller Bs.

[Henry's Weather]

Nice weenie line-up here, at least if you're WOR

[Henry's Weather]

And February 2013 DOES squeeze in at 15th, haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Nice weenie line-up here, at least if you're WOR

Jesus...a third of those are orgasmic for my area. Counting PD II as such, even though I got meso-porked.

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...a third of those are orgasmic for my area. Counting PD II as such, even though I got meso-porked.

I'd take both the first and last analogs in a heartbeat. I'm pretty young as an upcoming college freshman, and 2013 was my first taste of a legit, bonafide 2-footer. I vividly remember mumbly Menino giving a press conference relaying Gov. Patrick's travel ban. Epic storm.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, okay...I'm not saying it was a major contributor...all I am saying is that technically speaking, the notion that the blizzard of 1978 was 100% born of the N stream is a misperception.

I am not sure what the specific criteria is for distinguishing between those two types of miller Bs.

I would prob count '78 as northern stream....I mean, almost any miller B probably has some semblance of a remnant turd in the southern stream that meandered it's way from Las Vegas. They do help, but are generally minor players.

OTOH, storms like Feb 2013 or January 2011 had more distinct southern stream entities engulfed that were major players.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'd take both the first and last analogs in a heartbeat. I'm pretty young as an upcoming college freshman. 2013 was my first taste of a legit, bonafide 2-footer. I vividly remember mumbly Menino giving a press conference relaying Gov. Patrick's travel ban. Epic storm.

I missed the Megalopolis storm of '83...that makes 6.

1,3 6, 8, 11 and 15. I don't see this pulling a Jan 2016....maybe Dec 2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I would prob count '78 as northern stream....I mean, almost any miller B probably has some semblance of a remnant turd in the southern stream that meandered it's way from Las Vegas. They do help, but are generally minor players.

OTOH, storms like Feb 2013 or January 2011 had more distinct southern stream entities engulfed that were major players.

Yea, fair enough.

Like I said, I wasn't sure whether we were referencing storms that were literally ALL n Stream, or just mainly. No debate it was 90%+ N stream....