Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Baroclinic Zone]

Slight shuffle S and E on the NAM

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z NAM slays

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z NAM slays

Good start to 12z with HRR/NAM combo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

thats a thump in central/ eastern SNE On Nam..geezus

[ORH_wxman]

NAM ramped the QPF up again a bit after slacking some on the 06z run over in this area.

[amarshall]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

thats a thump in eastern SNE On Nam..geezus

Talk dirty to me

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM absolutely destroys SE Mass between like 6-10pm

[Baroclinic Zone]

3km Nammy joined the parade.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

thats a thump in central/ eastern SNE On Nam..geezus

Tickled the CF further east too....models are prob too far west with it so I'd expect to see them come a bit east with that feature as we near 0 lead time.

[WinterWolf]

Any maps?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Any maps?

https://home.pivotalweather.com/

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Any maps?

I will admit, this is a painful thing to look at

[ORH_wxman]

This is what you want to see to get hammered with high rates....I circled the 700mb warm front where the isotherms are tightly packed.....now look at the wind flags north of that....just straight from the east for like 200 miles.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I will admit, this is a painful thing to look at

I’ve never seen anyone worry as much as you do. There’s no slot there. You good for 12+

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve never seen anyone worry as much as you do. There’s no slot there. You good for 12+

I just want BOX to be wrong about stealing my snow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I will admit, this is a painful thing to look at

Damage is done by then.

[PhineasC]

Are the Canadian models verifying down south? Man, they are insistent this storm wraps up tight and heads into Maine. None of this swirl around well off the coast stuff. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, wxsniss said:

All this energy spawning disparate lows reminds me of a storm a few years ago... sorry I can't remember the date...

On guidance a large trough with multiple pieces of vorticity spawning different SLPs as they hit the coast, and we compared it to mogwais... guidance struggled and eventually coalesced into a single dominant SLP... reality was a SNE blizzard

RGEM did the same thing as CMC and HRPDS, and Euro hints at it too... glad to see a potential popping up before it's off Maine

The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go.  One can see that if they observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs;  like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead.  The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritime, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic.  It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingly like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is a paragraph that needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "."  

The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low.

You what this reminds me of... ?  It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there.  Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen.  I mean c'mon ..that's what that is..  This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind thrashing transporting a shattered 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm!

 

[Torch Tiger]

still thinking around 15" here. 

[Modfan2]

NYC getting smoked  at this moment if that is all snow

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

still thinking around 15" here. 

Hope so my friend, I could see that possibly happening when all is said and done. 

[512high]

The projected wind field for inland, legit? Sell? cut in half?

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

NYC getting smoked  at this moment if that is all snow

NY Metro obs reporting some sleet in the mix but heavy accum.  NW NJ till has temps <20.

[hooralph]

5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

NYC getting smoked  at this moment if that is all snow

Indeed we are. Had 5" on the ground in Manhattan about 7 AM. Really cranking now and we've just hit about 1/4 mile viz.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

NYC getting smoked  at this moment if that is all snow

All snow

Huge flakes

[Dan]

1 hour ago, Tiktock said:

Same!  In Plaistow north of Haverhill here with crossed fingers

Glad to see someone else in Southeast NH.  Couple towns north of you in Brentwood.  Fingers crossed.  Got really screwed in the December storm.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie has the low, but more across ern, especially NE MA into NH and ME.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has the low, but more across ern, especially NE MA into NH and ME.

ME likey

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Reggie has the low, but more across ern, especially NE MA into NH and ME.

Yeah def further north, not quite as bonkers, seems to see slp wanting to hang back near NYC more.

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I will admit, this is a painful thing to look at

That's like an arrowhead heading right up towards PF's fanny.