Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Hoth]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Fair enough. It has been a while down there. Mixing sucks unless there's a big Arctic push afterward to turn everything into glacier. 

Amazingly, we do still have a few crusty piles left from December thanks to the sleet infusion.

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Fair enough. It has been a while down there. Mixing sucks unless there's a big Arctic push afterward to turn everything into glacier. 

That does not sweeten the deal. It only gets people killed 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s your forecast map look like in SNE? Can you break down numbers in words by region?

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ScituateWX said:

Folks still watch the TWC?

During severe outbreaks in New England...oops

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Hoth said:

He describes the coast as a "slopfest" on his Twitter. It triggered me.

Lmao...let’s just see how this all plays out,  I think you’re going to be fine there imo.  
 

I remember distinctly in Feb 13, as it had just started snowing lightly in the morning, Bob Maxon came on the TV and downed our snowfall amounts here, and I was like here we go.... I turned off the TV and decided to just enjoy the storm for whatever it was I would get.  And The rest is history.  

[weathafella]

32 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree, Dec event was much better organized... this one is more disjointed, with mid and upper level centers maybe further southwest than ideal, but apparently plenty of WAA lift + 850 fetch to deliver. What are you thinking for Chestnut Hill?

The other puzzle is what happens Tuesday. Guidance all over the place with that. 

I’m thinking 10-12 for me, probably 8-10 for you?

[Drz1111]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

Do you have a good analog to this system?  While the numbers aren't historic or anything, it seems a bit different from many of the classic storms?  The best I came up with was "Like 1996, but if you turned the dial down from 10 to 8 in every dimension other than, perhaps,  duration".

[Hoth]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

During severe outbreaks in New England...oops

After three tornadoes in five years in Hamden/North Haven, TWC keeps TORCON permanently at 10 here.

[CT Rain]

Here's our running forecast. Best chance for highest totals locally is in W CT I think. I do think a pretty prolonged period of junk with the dry slot south and east of I-84 so a lot of snow grains, freezing drizzle, and sleet. 

 

[Hoth]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lmao...let’s just see how this all plays out,  I think you’re going to be fine there imo.  
 

I remember distinctly in Feb 13, as it had just started snowing lightly in the morning, Bob Maxon came on the TV and downed our snowfall amounts here, and I was like here we go.... I turned off the TV and decided to just enjoy the storm for whatever it was I would get.  And The rest is history.  

I hope so. I admit Paul and Ryan have a knack for getting to me, mainly because their criticisms are often valid.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

Thanks for breaking it down. We weenies appreciate the met expertise to help put our minds at ease .  This seems to have more variance than is typical. I do think there’s going to be some “good” surprises in some regions of the forum. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao...let’s just see how this all plays out,  I think you’re going to be fine there imo.  
 

I remember distinctly in Feb 13, as it had just started snowing lightly in the morning, Bob Maxon came on the TV and downed our snowfall amounts here, and I was like here we go.... I turned off the TV and decided to just enjoy the storm for whatever it was I would get.  And The rest is history.  

I should also add I'm just having my standard pre-storm nerves. Once the flakes start falling I'll feel fine.

[Bostonseminole]

i'd hit the 0z hrrr

[snowgeek]

Are the big downsloping deductions in N/S valleys on most of the models believable for this one? I find that with good arctic air in place at low levels, that often gets minimized. Some of the model runs have given the NE part of my county 4” and 24”+ in the higher elevations of the sw part of the county. Insane! Thoughts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

Pretty much this?

[ScituateWX]

Tough call here locally.  @CoastalWx thinking a deal where maybe there is a few sloppy inches right at the shore with increasing amounts as you head west across route 3A into Norwell, Hanover etc...I like the 4-8 range right along the shore here.  Hopefully we get some decent winds!  Tides don't seem to be a major issue, perhaps some minor flooding with a chance of Isolated moderate in the prone spots.  Should be a fun storm to follow!  Good luck to all

[ORH_wxman]

LOL just saw Ryan’s map...it sounded like I was describing it giving Kevin my thoughts on CT. I hadn’t seen it previously.

Glad they line up though. Something about great minds?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

That’s similar to how I feel. I’m not sure I get to 10, but hoping a solid 5-7 is a lock anyways. I admit I haven’t looked much everywhere else except you and Ray but I’d hit 12-18 total there too. 12” looks close to high confidence there.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA.

That bolded couldn't be more true.  I know my opinion is known there, but that jet coming ashore into eastern SNE is conceptually the easiest to imagine strong QPF no matter what.  The atmosphere is fluid, that's a lot of moist air getting lifted over surface cold and land friction with good speed convergence.  The old pile up on the highway as the flow comes ashore.  Air has nowhere to go but upward.  Strong low level lift underneath exceptional mid-level dynamics?  Game on.

Temperature profile is the concern on the coast, while lift and QPF is not.  But if I was still to pick a fun place to experience this one, it's around your area.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If I was still forecasting for union, I’d go 10-16” for you and prob most of CT except maybe like GON over to old Lyme and then it ramps back up near HVN on the south coast. I’ll go 12-18” for me/ORH area and 495 belt up toward Ray.

Prob 8-12” for interior SE MA...including up into BOS though west side toward Jerry would add a few inches to that range. 6-10” of absolute slime for Scooter on the south shore. 

I admit that I’m not hugely confident in the CT forecast or the coastline of E MA. Seems to be more variance there on the models than a place like ORH or interior E MA. I could see things breaking heavier too for CT...there’s a chance western parts could get in on the ML goodies though it feels like to me the main benefit will be more out in the Catskills and NNJ/NE PA..but even if they get clipped or it keeps the WCB a little slower to depart, then maybe we see some 16-20+ numbers there .

Im really hoping the 00z runs iron out some of the variance we’ve seen. 

At least one exciting thing about this system is there are several unknown factors going into it. 

 

The fact that you're saying this when snow has already broken out in NYC and White Plains speaks volumes to the modeling inconsistencies at play. 

 

[dendrite]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

i'd hit the 0z hrrr

I hope this verifies.

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I’m thinking 10-12 for me, probably 8-10 for you?

Exactly what I was thinking

8-12" city proper, 10-14" you / metrowest

If 0z NAM holds, I think that's a great forecast. I'm tossing RGEM/old-GFS/UK.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for breaking it down. We weenies appreciate the met expertise to help put our minds at ease .  This seems to have more variance than is typical. I do think there’s going to be some “good” surprises in some regions of the forum. 

Usually is...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ScituateWX said:

Tough call here locally.  @CoastalWx thinking a deal where maybe there is a few sloppy inches right at the shore with increasing amounts as you head west across route 3A into Norwell, Hanover etc...I like the 4-8 range right along the shore here.  Hopefully we get some decent winds!  Tides don't seem to be a major issue, perhaps some minor flooding with a chance of Isolated moderate in the prone spots.  Should be a fun storm to follow!  Good luck to all

I could see 3-4” at the beaches and easily double that on the other side of town.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, kdxken said:

Pretty much this?

Yeah I might extend the 12-18 closer to the coast though a few ticks but that is pretty good. I also don’t think the MA hole in the CT valley will be quite that bad. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That bolded couldn't be more true.  I know my opinion is known there, but that jet coming ashore into eastern SNE is conceptually the easiest to imagine strong QPF no matter what.  The atmosphere is fluid, that's a lot of moist air getting lifted over surface cold and land friction with good speed convergence.  The old pile up on the highway as the flow comes ashore.  Air has nowhere to go but upward.  Strong low level lift underneath exceptional mid-level dynamics?  Game on.

Temperature profile is the concern on the coast, while lift and QPF is not.  But if I was still to pick a fun place to experience this one, it's around your area.

The March 2013 storm did that here. Temperatures were great for all snow and it just piled on. It would be the same here if it stayed near or below 32. Probably double what I may expect. Even in the spring or fall with these cutoffs, usually a big liquid event with these looks when they last 18-24hrs. 

[203whiteout]

First flakes Fairfield CT. Coastal SW CT

[Kbosch]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Here's our running forecast. Best chance for highest totals locally is in W CT I think. I do think a pretty prolonged period of junk with the dry slot south and east of I-84 so a lot of snow grains, freezing drizzle, and sleet. 

 

Seems very reasonable and very smart. Fax that over to "16-24" OKX.

[CoastalWx]

And don’t look past later Tuesday to see what tries to spin north like the euro tried  to show. 

[Drz1111]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

And don’t look past later Tuesday to see what’s wrong tries to spin north like the euro tried  to show. 

Shows up, albeit not as strong, on the GFS para too.  And of course the UKMET turns that last piece into the main show.