Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Sey-Mour Snow]

SWCT folks would sign for the 23z HRRR been ramping up consistently.  6-12" in All of SWCT by noon with mega band just moving in... 

[HinghamBoss]

I’m not sure I’ve been this uncertain going into a storm.  Admittedly living down here on South Shore can bring its challenges geographically.  
 

right now I feel like it could be 4” or 10” - should be an interesting day tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:37 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro looked to shift ML goodies a decent tick or two South over NJ /SNY area. 

Was the MSLP further South or mid level low?  Curious bc it destroyed Philly now that i look close....i don't have any graphics

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[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:41 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Droughtstein

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i think that's pretty much in line with what im thinking.

..cept i would maybe shave the 9-14 over Far SE mass a tad . What is a decent program for a accumulation map. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:41 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Droughtstein

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I really appreciate the blending of the 9-14/12-18.  Must more realistic of how these things work.. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

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I can't really get much from that. I just see that Philly got blasted over to Trenton and  elevated areas of S NY and extreme N NJ  got reduced significantly and those areas are dependent mostly on ML goods

[Tiktock]

Thinking a foot here in south eastern NH.  Could be more on some models, will be happy with 10"

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Best pressure falls/rise couple is favoring the surface low development over SE Coastal South Carolina.

[PhineasC]

Euro cut back here from it's outrageous 12z run, but still 15-20 here.

[Drz1111]

18Z Euro continued to be nice for ME - popping off that extra low in the GoM and stalling it over downeast ME.   It's a toned down version of the amped CA models.    I've been very skeptical of the secondary max in coastal NH/ME but it's persisting in the higher resolution models so who knows, maybe I'm in for a treat. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

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As long as you are north of the H7 warm front, you are usually going to be getting smoked. In this image it is easy to see as the height lines are bent back...that’s when we say “bent back warm front”....I marked the front in red

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:46 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

how bout LIFT

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Hard to quantify h7 there by just a snapshot as it stalls for several frames but the position was definitely east by 25 miles or so which drags the cbb se. Why Philly got in on it. What about lift though...What map do you want to see lol?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I like 4-8”....” the taint is closer than it appears”.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hard to quantify h7 there but just a snapshot as it stalls for several frames but the position was definitely east by 25 miles or so which drags the cbb se. Why Philly got in on it. What about lift though...What map do you want to see lol?

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actually man, no worries. I'm not gonna hog the thread. Plenty more models to run tonite. Gotta set my final NBA lineups on Fanduel. ha

[NorEastermass128]

HRRR FTMFW

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:22 AM, WinterWolf said:

That’s doable for both of us I think.  Hope it pans out for us. 

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I could see it being 12” or 19”.. but that seems most likely to me 

[TheSnowman]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:35 AM, MRVexpat said:

Dude!!! So rad. What is the name of the tune that is currently being played??? (If you see this in time). I've seen Club D'elf cover it a good amount of times at the Lizard Lounge in Cambridge where they have their residency. 

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Ahhhh the Final tune was Spain, by Chick Corea.  Before it was If I ain't got You by Alicia Keys.  Another one was Panarea, a South American Tune.  Bella Chitarra, a Jazz Waltz.  Ahhhhh what else, La Vie en Rose with the Violinist.  Or the Romanian tune, which was the Fast Duo tune we did.  

[wxsniss]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:37 AM, weathafella said:

I thought that had better concordance between the surface, mid, and upper levels? 

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Agree, Dec event was much better organized... this one is more disjointed, with mid and upper level centers maybe further southwest than ideal, but apparently plenty of WAA lift + 850 fetch to deliver. What are you thinking for Chestnut Hill?

The other puzzle is what happens Tuesday. Guidance all over the place with that. 

[PhineasC]

ICON cut back across the board a little too, FWIW. It seems we are narrowing the goalposts now to something good but not great.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:40 AM, kdxken said:

What time tonight does it start?

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Looks like 3-5:00 AM here 

[PhineasC]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:48 AM, Drz1111 said:

18Z Euro continued to be nice for ME - popping off that extra low in the GoM and stalling it over downeast ME.   It's a toned down version of the amped CA models.    I've been very skeptical of the secondary max in coastal NH/ME but it's persisting in the higher resolution models so who knows, maybe I'm in for a treat. 

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I think it's real. Euro has had it for a couple runs now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:41 AM, 8611Blizz said:

Droughtstein

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2-5” in the Pioneer Valley??  That dude 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:53 AM, PhineasC said:

ICON cut back across the board a little too, FWIW. It seems we are narrowing the goalposts now to something good but not great.

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ICON is not the model I want to trust in any scenario

[snowman21]

Snow has started here

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

this storm looks to be arriving a bit faster than modeled.  I mean there is banding now just southwest of the Vineyard.

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:51 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

HRRR FTMFW

 

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That would a kick in the nuts to many forecasts and many others' expectations.

[kdxken]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 3-5:00 AM here 

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Oh good not until Monday.

[Drz1111]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:54 AM, PhineasC said:

I think it's real. Euro has had it for a couple runs now.

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If it's real, then that explains why your numbers are being cut a bit.  Subsidence and a not-particularly-favorable-wind-for-upslope.   But I dunno - with how occluded the broader low will be, I feel like it's going to play much more like an upslope event under an upper low?  I don't see the forcing by the coast after the main WAA band lifts north.  We shall see. 

[RDRY]

Major fringe job by the Euro up in NW Mass. Looks like a quick hit from the initial fronto band, then the dry slot and 20 hours of weak echoes.

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/1/2021 at 12:51 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

HRRR FTMFW

 

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Nice but HRRR cannot be trusted beyond hour ten