Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

It seems to be real based on latest runs. Hopefully GFS shows something. It’s been the most lame here. 

18z GFS is coming west this run finally.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah the H7 evolution is certainly not ideal for a HECS. It's such a bizarre evolution. I almost wonder if the NAM is correct with it...it just gets so jumpy with it. 

You’ve made your call...time to enjoy, and let it play out over the next two days and see what happens, and how good your call is? 
 

Sometimes, too much data is no good and just overkill.  It’s game on now..enjoy whatever comes. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I would take 1' and run.

Ok, we'll be happy to take your excess snow.  

[weatherwiz]

18z NAM bufkit for BDL and Waterbury does look solid. For Waterbury, it actually looks to show a good 8-hour window of 1''/HR with 3-4 HR of 2''/HR with ratios about 15:1 to maybe 18:1

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not complaining, I'm just thinking out loud as I formulate the forecast.

I think widespread 15"+ will be tough...

Understood. :-)
 

We will see how this all plays out. should be a fun one for many. 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

PDII was a very slow mover but that was ages ago.

Don’t think it’s been quite that long...I imagine Feb 2013 crept in but my memory is terrible for those types of details. Of course PDII was on a whole other level.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Ok, we'll be happy to take your excess snow.  

My point is there are a few red flags that give me pause...I know I often talk like 18" events grow on trees, but I know that they do not. Take a pretty special set of circumstances.

[bishbish777]

GFS is a disaster for E MA...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Understood. :-)
 

We will see how this all plays out. should be a fun one for many. 

Yes, what we do know is that it will be a nice event.

Enjoy....ok, less post, more forecast.

[PhineasC]

GFS looks rainy for SE areas. 

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Don’t think it’s been quite that long...I imagine Feb 2013 crept in but my memory is terrible for those types of details. Of course PDII was on a whole other level.

Yeah Feb 2013 was another one. It had light snow throughout the day starting late morning, and then only after sunset did it really get heavy.

[78Blizzard]

Toss the GFS.

[78Blizzard]

BOX is sweating that forecast now after seeing the GFS.  

[Greg]

Classic for the GFS bias. Floods the BL with warm marine air.

Gives about an hour of thump then all rain. Typical GFS bias, even this close in.

[PhineasC]

Weird, lame run. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Fozz said:

Yeah Feb 2013 was another one. It had light snow throughout the day starting late morning, and then only after sunset did it really get heavy.

Yup. Snowed all day and we picked up about 3 maybe 4” at the most by sunset..wasn’t very impressive at all. Then it went NUTS for about 9 hrs after dark and that’s when it piled up like crazy. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

BOX is sweating that forecast now after seeing the GFS.  

The GFS has been confused on this storm from the start. 

[78Blizzard]

The Para has other thoughts.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The GFS has been confused on this storm from the start. 

It BLOWS. 

[bishbish777]

The thump on the v16...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I would sign off on that mid level track.

[bishbish777]

Overall GFS and v16 are significantly farther W/NW than previous runs

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a lot of precip on the Reggie

For those of us who love qpf maps.....I'm thrilled to be in the 2.0+ region.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would sign off on that mid level track.

yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM

[weathafella]

Old gfs doesn’t seem “unsnowy” notwithstanding the penile implant connected to PYM...

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM

There’s some dry air as it stacks off AC but it regenerates. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah I think the look on the GFS is actually pretty good for us here in CT. Could even argue it's better than the NAM

I feel good about this system..think it’s gonna be a good one for sure for CT, and most in SNE. 

[Greg]

Jerry that's out to 99 hours.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

For those of us who love qpf maps.....I'm thrilled to be in the 2.0+ region.

Your going to be surprised how good you new spot does, Pit 1 and Pit 2 or 3 whatever it is.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Old gfs doesn’t seem “unsnowy”

 

 

That map is a lot more bullish than Pivotal's.