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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

I guess my point is there will be surprises...there always is.  Nobody expected that band to set up where it did in 13...none of the modeling had that at all. And I guess that’s my point.  Fun storm incoming for us regardless. 

totally agreed...there is definitely going to be surprises...good surprises and bad ones lol. Hopefully we are on the good side :lol: 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What are you thinking for your area.  This should be an interesting case study 

15" or so is my call from the synoptic piece. We will see what happens after the winds shift out of the NW with upslope.

This storm seems to have a lot more to work with than the January 19th storm, and I pulled 15" out of the synoptic side of that, plus another 10-12 of upslope over the rest of the week.

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RDRY

RDRY

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It tries too hard to capture convection and terrain effects. It often goes nuts here in minor upslope events showing a foot of snow when 1-2 inches is the ceiling. 

Look at the huge difference in general intensity from 12z to 18z.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@CoastalWx The system is elongated and amorphous....it looks like H7 shoots over Boston and up the ME coast?

On the nam it goes into NJ. Slowly moves east after but it’s elongated and loses it’s forcing capabilities. The 700 WF moving north and strong erly LLJ is what does all the damage for us. 

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Kbosch

Kbosch

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:


Totally agree. They used to be much more conservative 10+ years ago. But more recently they love going balls to the wall and end up busting more often than not. Down this way I feel 12” is out ceiling, I’m think 6-10” shoreline east of HVN. 8-14” for the majority of the state...pocket of 12-18” for the SW/NE corners.

100%. I used to feel they were too conservative, but around the epic HECS run in 10-11, they started going all out way too often. We just don't get these totals with that regularity or ease. We always find a way to sleet and mix or subsidence besides the few obvious special events in the last 20 years.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

On the nam it goes into NJ. Slowly moves east after but it’s elongated and loses it’s forcing capabilities. The 700 WF moving north and strong erly LLJ is what does all the damage for us. 

It tries to reconsolidate as it goes through my area, but seems like it takes until it gets to sw ME to do so.

Tough to forecast widespread over 1' based on just those mechanisms.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, we really want to have an obscene period tomorrow to maximize potential 18z was still a good run, but not quite the durational thump from earlier. We'll see. If there were an event we could get things to fall right, this would be it...I think...lol

The H7 evolution is really pissing me off.

The system becomes vertically stacked by early afternoon with H7 placement PERFECT for us...totally perfect. But then H7 becomes more elongated and doesn't even appear to be vertically stacked anymore. If you look at Monday evening and down to H85...that is another area of perfection to us...this is why I am wondering if we can see some sort of llvl fronto band...obviously the goods wouldn't be great but we could still snow and accumulate. But...you look at H7 and we have a mess of dry air aloft with H7 trying to become a bit more compact and closed off to our west (not good). 

If H7 just slide to our south and east....ughhhhhhhhhhh 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The H7 evolution is really pissing me off.

The system becomes vertically stacked by early afternoon with H7 placement PERFECT for us...totally perfect. But then H7 becomes more elongated and doesn't even appear to be vertically stacked anymore. If you look at Monday evening and down to H85...that is another area of perfection to us...this is why I am wondering if we can see some sort of llvl fronto band...obviously the goods wouldn't be great but we could still snow and accumulate. But...you look at H7 and we have a mess of dry air aloft with H7 trying to become a bit more compact and closed off to our west (not good). 

If H7 just slide to our south and east....ughhhhhhhhhhh 

So close man, sooo close. We actually could use 30% of a gfs h7 track.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It tries to reconsolidate as it goes through my area, but seems like it takes until it gets to sw ME to do so.

Tough to forecast widespread over 1' based on just those mechanisms.

When that stuff blows through, you’ll probably have lots of fine flake snow for awhile. May add up to an inch or two into Tuesday. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The H7 evolution is really pissing me off.

The system becomes vertically stacked by early afternoon with H7 placement PERFECT for us...totally perfect. But then H7 becomes more elongated and doesn't even appear to be vertically stacked anymore. If you look at Monday evening and down to H85...that is another area of perfection to us...this is why I am wondering if we can see some sort of llvl fronto band...obviously the goods wouldn't be great but we could still snow and accumulate. But...you look at H7 and we have a mess of dry air aloft with H7 trying to become a bit more compact and closed off to our west (not good). 

If H7 just slide to our south and east....ughhhhhhhhhhh 

This is not a HECS....too many flags with respect to H7.

Nice storm,  but be careful....NWS falling into the trap.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is not a HECS....too many flags with respect to H7.

Nice storm,  but be careful....NWS falling into the trap.

yeah the H7 evolution is certainly not ideal for a HECS. It's such a bizarre evolution. I almost wonder if the NAM is correct with it...it just gets so jumpy with it. 

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