Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Hoth said:

That's coming to CT. Believe.

Agreed.. I think you’ll see something like what happened in NNE on Dec 17 into CT . Not 40” but same premise 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus...NAM gives Boston 2.18" QPF..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

That's coming to CT. Believe.

Is it like a circus that just packs up and heads to another location with every model run?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You know...back in feb 13, the real obscene totals were forecast to be confined out east/eastern Mass and NE Mass.  And we got into it big time..and it wasn’t forecast at all to be like that.  So you never know with these big dogs just how everything evolves and comes together?  Gonna be a great storm for us WCT folks I think regardless. 

If I remember correctly though that was largely due to the band pivoting back west and stalling for a while. I think the occlusion was slower to occur too so we kept the moisture advection into the storm. If H7 was to slide south and east and then take a more northeast turn as opposed to what the models are doing with it now...that type of scenario (I think) would be very likely and we would see widespread 18-24 across the state with some 30'' totals

[HoarfrostHubb]

Even Stein is chucking 12-18” amounts

[DFRI]

Crazy 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Most are happy ugh.. Still stinks here compared to everyone else

Well, it could be the models are overdoing the Valley shadowing a bit but historicaly the I- 91 corridor has a tough time with straight E fetch storms.  You really need to hope,for all of us in W MA, thatt the initial thump is solid.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You know...back in feb 13, the real obscene totals were forecast to be confined out east/eastern Mass and NE Mass.  And we got into it big time..and it wasn’t forecast at all to be like that.  So you never know with these big dogs just how everything evolves and comes together?  Gonna be a great storm for us WCT folks I think regardless. 

18"+ Seymour to Soutbury down SW

[78Blizzard]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just think temps will get borderline, and when the DGZ dries out, that’s when it will mix with rain. So I would lean lower near the coast. Also don’t forget about the 700 low west rule. It probably will move out just a little quicker than one thinks. I’m seeing models generate some good QPF below the DGZ so it might be a little biased too wet. 

That should be near the end of the heavy qpf.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed

I’ll come wash all the salt off your truck in 80s jean shorts if that pivot zone tickles me with 24.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Yep, they love going one step too far sometimes and making their own clown map. No need to push it beyond 12-18, and more of the east should be 8-12. Too many question marks. It *could* happen, to forecast this is rough.

Totally agree. They used to be much more conservative 10+ years ago. But more recently they love going balls to the wall and end up busting more often than not. Down this way I feel 12” is out ceiling, I’m think 6-10” shoreline east of HVN. 8-14” for the majority of the state...pocket of 12-18” for the SW/NE corners.

[dryslot]

That's a lot of precip on the Reggie

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just think temps will get borderline, and when the DGZ dries out, that’s when it will mix with rain. So I would lean lower near the coast. Also don’t forget about the 700 low west rule. It probably will move out just a little quicker than one thinks. I’m seeing models generate some good QPF below the DGZ so it might be a little biased too wet. 

You almost never forecast widespread 12"+ when H7 is west.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll come wash all the salt off your truck in 80s jean shorts if that pivot zone tickles with 24.

And my company car.. the Outback 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

And my company car.. the Outback 

Deal. I promise. 24”.

[PhineasC]

18z Reginald upped totals here from 12z.

Absolutely demolishes NW Vermont, a place I am told is only interested in 3" or so to freshen the pack.

@powderfreak

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agreed.. I think you’ll see something like what happened in NNE on Dec 17 into CT . Not 40” but same premise 

I have a good feeling about this one. Not saying I see 30, but would not surprise me if someone around here does.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, dryslot said:

That's a lot of precip on the Reggie

Not happening.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You almost never forecast widespread 12"+ when H7 is west.

But as many in here have said, this has been a weird winter thus far.

[blizzard24]

to many weather people under estimate the ct valley in mass they will get over 12 inches.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, PhineasC said:

18z Reginald upped totals here from 12z.

Absolutely demolishes NW Vermont, a place I am told is only interested in 3" or so to freshen the pack.

@powderfreak

What are you thinking for your area.  This should be an interesting case study 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Fuk. Of course rgem now points the 24 weenie a tick ne crossing state lines. A federal offense.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Hoth said:

I have a good feeling about this one. Not saying I see 30, but would not surprise me if someone around here does.

I’d like to be in Ridgefield for this. I think that area jacks . You to Runny are in the 15-20” range. I think I’m more 12–16” unless the firehose does better in Ne CT

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

18z Reginald upped totals here from 12z.

Absolutely demolishes NW Vermont, a place I am told is only interested in 3" or so to freshen the pack.

@powderfreak

I would chuck that run far and wide.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d like to be in Ridgefield for this. I think that area jacks . You to Runny are in the 15-20” range. I think I’m more 12–16” unless the firehose does better in Ne CT

As I type that Reggae crushes this area with another shift E

[weatherwiz]

At least for my forecast, I hope I'm not QPF hugging too much here. It's great seeing these QPF outputs (which I obviously weighed heavily on) but damn...I think there's quite a bit to be nervous about for even getting widespread 12'' plus here. It really is just going to depend on how long we are getting maximized rates. But this is IJD (and this is very similar throughout CT) but look at how rapidly drier air starts getting down into where the DGZ would be. I'm nervous the thump is going to be very quick

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I remember correctly though that was largely due to the band pivoting back west and stalling for a while. I think the occlusion was slower to occur too so we kept the moisture advection into the storm. If H7 was to slide south and east and then take a more northeast turn as opposed to what the models are doing with it now...that type of scenario (I think) would be very likely and we would see widespread 18-24 across the state with some 30'' totals

I guess my point is there will be surprises...there always is.  Nobody expected that band to set up where it did in 13...none of the modeling had that at all. And I guess that’s my point.  Fun storm incoming for us regardless. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@CoastalWx The system is elongated and amorphous....it looks like H7 shoots over Boston and up the ME coast?

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a lot of precip on the Reggie

1st run of anything in a while that hasn’t had a qpf hole for Brian Gene and I

[weathafella]

Reggie is a shitty model but the signal is for whatever to come out of the sky to come hard and fast.  Snowblower batteries charging!