Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Hoth]

Euro trash tossed.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The Euro can't be wrong at 60 hours.  

[TheSnowman]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. 

I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

If I get 18-24:  

 

I PROMISE to come to your house and play a Free 30 Minute Concert.  Promise.  
 

That ain’t happening.  But I sure hope do.  

[Greg]

Not so sure I trust where it puts that H7. Looks a little strange on this run.

[RDRY]

So now the GFS, which has been paltry for the Berks for days, has more than the Euro.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

If I get 18-24:  

 

I PROMISE to come to your house and play a Free 30 Minute Concert.  Promise.  
 

That ain’t happening.  But I sure hope do.  

do you take requests? 

(and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. 

I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

Big balls bro. I like it. More aggressive that my weenie arse which is crazy so GL. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Can’t wait to see the hand wringing that goes on with every little shift in modeling from here on out.  No matter what, SW and central CT looks golden as does S ORH Co and parts East 

[TheSnowman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

do you take requests? 

(and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half asleep with 2 fingers.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big balls bro. I like it. More aggressive that my weenie arse which is crazy so GL. 

The only reasons why I'm doing so is;

1) I think snow ratios easily approach 15:1 - 18:1 during the height...could even argue as high as 20:1

2) QPF...these are juicy numbers 

3) Looking at max omega within the DGZ...certainly enough to result in 2-3'' per hour rates and I would think those happen for a good 4-6 hours. 

The non-pivot factor is a flag but I think what I mentioned above should outweigh that

[PhineasC]

Euro also turned the cutter into what looks like a SWFE snowstorm? LOL

They definitely ran this one out of my basement.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half asleep with 2 fingers.  

It was a joke  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

do you take requests? 

(and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

Lol dude...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

I feel like every model run here is the same...they all have that 495 to ORH belt in the 12-18” range regardless of what is going on east or west of here. 

If the entire thing ticks a little more east then maybe s could go higher as it would likely increase our residence time in the WCB/firehose combo, but really only a difference of a couple hours or so. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like every model run here is the same...they all have that 495 to ORH belt in the 12-18” range regardless of what is going on east or west of here. 

If the entire thing ticks a little more east then maybe s could go higher as it would likely increase our residence time in the WCB/firehose combo, but really only a difference of a couple hours or so. 

It's been like 5 days now of E.MA high-confidence in the firehose of moisture.  It has been remarkably steady.  Temp concerns aside, the moisture has been locked in for days there.  You are going to get smoked in southern Middlesex Cnty.

[Henry's Weather]

Just bring that area of 18-24 that much northeast every run until 12z tomorrow please. Wagons east!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The only reasons why I'm doing so is;

1) I think snow ratios easily approach 15:1 - 18:1 during the height...could even argue as high as 20:1

2) QPF...these are juicy numbers 

3) Looking at max omega within the DGZ...certainly enough to result in 2-3'' per hour rates and I would think those happen for a good 4-6 hours. 

The non-pivot factor is a flag but I think what I mentioned above should outweigh that

If I get 20” I’ll come over and setup my dj equipment to spin Taylor Swift songs for you for as long as you want. 

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

700mb track on euro definitely pretty funky. Brings it all the way west into C NJ

Certainly weird looking...  lots issues to still be resolved that will greatly impact final totals... 

[CoastalWx]

I have low confidence here. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Euro also turned the cutter into what looks like a SWFE snowstorm? LOL

They definitely ran this one out of my basement.

36"+ settled depth there after this.  Get ready for 40" on the ground?

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I have low confidence here. 

Why are we still scratching our heads less than 24 hours before the onset? Have there been no improvements at all in our modeling capabilities?

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We will take.

More NE, SE and SW of me....looks about right.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

36"+ settled depth there after this.  Get ready for 40" on the ground?

I have been shoveling the decks the last two days.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More NE, SE and SW of me....looks about right.

I'll gladly take your 12-18 if you don't want it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I have low confidence here. 

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's been like 5 days now of E.MA high-confidence in the firehose of moisture.  It has been remarkably steady.  Temp concerns aside, the moisture has been locked in for days there.  You are going to get smoked in southern Middlesex Cnty.

Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well.

We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. 

And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll gladly take your 12-18 if you don't want it.

I'll trade you for your past six years and and an advisory event to be named later.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Why are we still scratching our heads less than 24 hours before the onset? Have there been no improvements at all in our modeling capabilities?

I meant for me. It's borderline. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. 

Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well.

We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. 

And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist. 

I have a feeling the meat of the firehose will be south of me, like March 2013...I know its progressive, but I feel like it will be better south me, then the H7 low will curl around  north of me.

[PhineasC]

And here comes another storm next weekend. What a weenie run of the Euro.

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I meant for me. It's borderline. 

Borderline here too apparently