Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I know they are warm.

I just hate the LBSW aspect.

Final call incoming?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

The stars are almost in perfect alignment. Been a few years since we tracked something like this for the WOR crowd. So pumped.

Yup...just keep expectations in check. I’ve been nude since 6z but if it’s ‘only’ 12 it’s still all good. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup...just keep expectations in check. I’ve been nude since 6z but if it’s ‘only’ 12 it’s still all good. 

Yup, the best storms are when you keep increasing numbers during the storm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup...just keep expectations in check. I’ve been nude since 6z but if it’s ‘only’ 12 it’s still all good. Found this one on Craigslist personals 

Shaking things up? Congrats 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Yup, the best storms are when you keep increasing numbers during the storm

Yes. It’s hard to put up big totals unless you rot in the cbb so until you’re under one, don’t spike the ball. 

[TheSnowman]

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

They will. Watch....

Sorry for RI Mets.  They can be Very bearish.  Most are good though.  This is total crap.  Also!  FINALLY a Map I approve of!  

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX point and click keeps increasing for mby:

Monday

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 27. Northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just you hush

Most models of had it somewhere within that area. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I just keep thinking of the big ones that missed here the past 8 years where upon review...it was all about h7 placement. It either travelled overhead or over the berks so it’s congrats to the north or too far se like Jan 15 so it’s congrats EOR. I’m not seeing anything but an ideal h7 track...the only caution flag is when it stalls. Thoughts?

I don't think we need it to stall to see 18-24" the stall may bring places to our WNW from 24-36" though.. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s a regional feature on pivotal, please use the northeast section for clowns.

Local too if you subscribe.

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX point and click keeps increasing for mby:

Monday

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 27. Northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

I'm shocked.

[bishbish777]

Is there historical precedent for surface temps running cooler than modeled in these situations? The difference between 3-6" and 8-14" in E MA/SE MA is very close... just a few degrees..

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX point and click keeps increasing for mby:

Monday

Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 27. Northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

that looks quite toothsome

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, dryslot said:

Local too if you subscribe.

I guess I can deal with 11 but 16 is soooo close!

[TheSnowman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Local too if you subscribe.

When is the last time PVD got more snow than BOS?  I mean.... 78?  
 

Is the only way this happens is the Coastal Front becomes a major factor and sets up Vertical between them?  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Will anyone have their pants on by Tomorrow morning besides Poor Jimmy  

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Such a tough forecast down here.... wouldn’t be surprised with 3” or 12”

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will anyone have their pants on by Tomorrow morning besides Poor Jimmy  

I'll be at work so yeah.

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Such a tough forecast down here.... wouldn’t be surprised with 3” or 12”

Exactly.  This is either going way high or way low.  Difference of just a couple of degrees.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will anyone have their pants on by Tomorrow morning besides Poor Jimmy  

 

I’m starting a new job tomorrow remotely with lots of zoom meetings...but with only a dress shirt on. No pants, no briefs, maybe socks to keep the footies warm.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Going 0-12” forecast here.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

When is the last time PVD got more snow than BOS?  I mean.... 78?  
 

Is the only way this happens is the Coastal Front becomes a major factor and sets up Vertical between them?  

Depends on where that was measure in '78. Similar amounts around Boston and Providence back then.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Final call incoming?

Was gonna do it tmw, but prob later today

[Ginx snewx]

We blizz

 

 

[wxsniss]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve found HREF too aggressive this far out, especially in borderline areas. 

Yeah I wouldn't take verbatim just yet, but it is very consistent with NAM which has been surprisingly steady for 6+ cycles now, and other guidance has ticked colder for eastern SNE... 

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope so. 

Interesting side bar. I lived in Norwalk most my life until Sep 2014 and moved to Easton. 13 foot plus storms including 3 20 plus. Have not reached one foot since moving here (hit 11.5 twice). I feel like that area always does better in KUs.

That’s about when the biggies stopped in CT.....we’ve been getting boned ever since....

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Such a tough forecast down here.... wouldn’t be surprised with 3” or 12”

I think 4-8” is a good call for most in the coastal plain except for right at the coast/cape, etc. Considering the preceding air mass it’s going to be unlikely that mix line gets as far NW as modeled before the precip lets up. As usual with 90% of storms we thread the needle...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ice1972 said:

That’s about when the biggies stopped in CT.....we’ve been getting boned ever since....

Please don't. Ct isn't just near Hartford. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Was gonna do it tmw, but prob later today

It starts before dawn. Get it out before the snow begins 

[IowaStorm05]

8 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

That’s about when the biggies stopped in CT.....we’ve been getting boned ever since....

Semi decadal trends do happen. 

Furthermore some scientists suggest that global warming has risen average temps in the Mid Atlantic and SNE faster than some other parts of the nation like the upper Midwest. I know that is politicized in this country but I’m not the scientist I didn’t do the work so don’t shoot the messenger. 
 

Out west decadal trends are even worse due to the PDO