Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, CarverWX said:

Looks like the V16 and NAM are very close. Is there any chance they are right?

Take the warmest solution, add it to the lowest qpf solution, divide by two and take the square root 

[CarverWX]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Take the warmest solution, add it to the lowest qpf solution, divide by two and take the square root 

Makes sense 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Will, or Anyone.  With the Mid level low location and the deep E flow...is there any spots in N NJ or adjacent areas that see the orographic lift that would really wring out the moisture or is that more confined to the Catskills/Hunter area with Deep E flow (for that longitude area)

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

define eastern ..ha

Prob anyone inside 495 though the difference is most pronounced inside of 128. Don’t think I buy it though because it doesn’t match other guidance the way I’m seeing things trend. 

[amarshall]

Moving that rain /snow line a few ticks east.

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[EastonSN+]

RGEM not as good for Western CT as 6z. Close. Looks like I west from 22 to 16.5 in SW CT. Now in line with NAM. V16. GGEM.

[CoastalWx]

I have no idea what to think. I'd probably lean conservative here.

[PhineasC]

12z RGEM came into line with the other guidance here. The models all have me around 1" liquid, give or take a couple tenths. Still a great signal showing up for enhancement on east winds, great depiction for Randolph.

RGEM has a wicked band that hits northern VT. Powderfreak's patience pays off again. LOL

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think S Catskills could be a sneaky jack spot

I don’t think it’s that sneaky. Esp southern Catskills. They are in a prime spot. 

[wxsniss]

NAM is like 🤲🤲
Surprisingly may be the most steady guidance since Saturday

Add CF enhancement to this:

[JB_Wchstr]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no idea what to think. I'd probably lean conservative here.

What are you thinking? 6-8?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

RGEM not as good for Western CT as 6z. Close. Looks like I west from 22 to 16.5 in SW CT. Now in line with NAM. V16. GGEM.

Noise but the overall theme improved with ticking the pivot NE.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SnowEMass said:

What are you thinking? 6-8?

Are you in Stoughton? You might do pretty good there being inland and up a bit in elevation. 

[JB_Wchstr]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Are you in Stoughton? You might do pretty good there being inland and up a bit in elevation. 

Stoughton  yes. 

[dryslot]

Reggie looked like a lot of sleet here.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Noise but the overall theme improved with ticking the pivot NE.

Yeah I wouldn’t worry about exact qpf nuances. The theme was the rgem tickled northeast again and that is going to help most areas in here. 

[Bostonseminole]

rgem would suck here

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Noise but the overall theme improved with ticking the pivot NE.

The RGEM was kind of an outlier anyway, it simply moved into line with other guidance which is a good thing really. Lends credence to the solution.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The RGEM was kind of an outlier anyway, it simply moved into line with other guidance which is a good thing really. Lends credence to the solution.

Besides that it sucks, Yeah.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

Besides that it sucks, Yeah.

It claims even I ride the mix line here. I doubt it. I wouldn't sweat it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I wouldn’t worry about exact qpf nuances. The theme was the rgem tickled northeast again and that is going to help most areas in here. 

Get it another 25-50 miles e/ne and it’s lights out for all in sne. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

Stoughton  yes. 

Yeah I think 6-8 is a virtual lock there. I might go 8-10 there. And then probably some light rain before back to snow Tuesday. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It claims even I ride the mix line here. I doubt it. I wouldn't sweat it.

Its been running to warm from what i've noticed.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

12z RGEM came into line with the other guidance here. The models all have me around 1" liquid, give or take a couple tenths. Still a great signal showing up for enhancement on east winds, great depiction for Randolph.

RGEM has a wicked band that hits northern VT. Powderfreak's patience pays off again. LOL

 

You've got 24 hours of sustained ENE surface winds... which for you is like sustained NW flow here.  Probably don't even have to look at models except for entertainment there in Randolph, ha.  Just like when we get NW upslope, you know it's happening, the models are just entertainment at that point.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its been running to warm from what i've noticed.

The Canadian models always run warm because it is so cold in Canada that getting the temps right doesn't matter that much.  

[wxsniss]

From 12z
Initial thump will deliver

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

The goods are slowly moving Northeast from PA and NJ. Let’s goooooooooo!!!

[DFRI]

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Anyone have a solid window for last flakes in CT? Going back through the thread from last night I’m seeing a DT wet dream for flakes in the air till Wed?

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks better than 06z for many. Colder in east spots too.