Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[EastonSN+]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Even with nam being more nw it deff slid NE with the goods.

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We will need this to hold on a little longer instead of blowing its load further south on the Nam.

NAM shifted the dry slot further east this run. It's a little better here than 06z, which had signs of looking rather lame.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nammie 12k Clown

 

[CoastalWx]

What's up with that second s/w at like hr 54 coming in from the GL. 

[PhineasC]

12z is about .25" more liquid here so far than 06z. A better run for sure for Northern NH, at least. Still would be nice to see the low not get so shredded once it gets up here. Lamest looking 991mb low over Cape Cod ever?

[ORH_wxman]

There is gonna be a pretty crazy coastal front in the early part of the storm. We’ll have to watch that. It shows up on the NAM and HRRR really well...they likely diffuse it way too quickly. But its like 32-33F on one side, and 20-23F on the other. 

Thst could add to enhancement on the left side of that. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What's up with that second s/w at like hr 54 coming in from the GL. 

please elaborate kind sir

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is gonna be a pretty crazy coastal front in the early part of the storm. We’ll have to watch that. It shows up on the NAM and HRRR really well...they likely diffuse it way too quickly. But its like 32-33F on one side, and 20-23F on the other. 

Thst could add to enhancement on the left side of that. 

I was texting someone about that. I think you'll see the CF/OES stuff on the front before the main stuff starts. It's been on the hi res like you said.

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is gonna be a pretty crazy coastal front in the early part of the storm. We’ll have to watch that. It shows up on the NAM and HRRR really well...they likely diffuse it way too quickly. But its like 32-33F on one side, and 20-23F on the other. 

Thst could add to enhancement on the left side of that. 

Foxboro to Burriville someone in that zone is going to see close to 20

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

please elaborate kind sir

Keeps the low near the Cape. Lots of light stuff.

[dryslot]

The 12z Nam has like 3-4 meso lows as it makes its way NNE

[EastonSN+]

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Keeps the low near the Cape. Lots of light stuff.

Yeah still light snow on Wednesday morning. 

[IowaStorm05]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Foxboro to Burriville someone in that zone is going to see close to 20

I feel like this can back up a bit in the final count down and stretch down to Close to willi. We are close enough to see that warm enhancement. 

[Ginx snewx]

59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 Brightband, but that was impressive nonetheless.

Lol wut? I got 8 inches in an hour and a half with thunder.  Bright band with column from 7H to surface -10c ok

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Missed some. Every inch matters:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah still light snow on Wednesday morning. 

DIT’s wet dream comes true...

[PhineasC]

NAM kinda reinvigorates the low late and snow builds back in as the run ends. Solid depiction.

[PhineasC]

NAM is a disaster for most of the Mid-Atlantic. Rug pull time.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm seeing nuanced reasons ... more and less valid, to not trust any guidance' singular handling of this system really -

For now  I am taking the 48 hour EPS and the 72 hour EPS, and using those to canvas this.  out of those standard metric(s)/synopsis 101.

This following/below is a collage of the 00z EPS' sfc/500mb heights, 850 mb temperatures... and personal experience/climatology

... that translation of 500 mb heights and surface cyclone track, while that 500 mb deepens that dramatically, with 850 mb therms never exceeding 0C NW of extreme coastal NJ to KBED up in Massachusetts ... is typically 10+" ( as conservative entry -) from N NJ to SE NH ... and closer to 20" is frequent throughout history wrt to those two canvasing metric/behaviors therein.  

I almost want to just say, 'period, case closed,' draw off my pipe and reengage the slow rocker -but I'm a bloviator and you know I can't resist lol

Adding or subtracting from that canvas ... based on meso this... or whatever that, but there's too much data flying around that is obfuscating the picture of this thing at this point.  More so than any blizzard it may or may not cause.  Sometimes the simpler explanation turns out to be the truth.. 

I don't know if I buy these QPF gaps. This is not 1992 wet snow with a lower growth region in a CCB sounding that's going up and over orographic striations inland ... imposing systemic lee-side drying... I don't see that.  This is mid level bonkers!  There's likely to be a compression of the thermal field along an elevated frontal slope as it escapes slantwise polarward ...as the 500 mb initial flow begins to veer aloft and up-glides that interface ... I admit to wanting to see more 300 mb difluence but there is some...Both left and right entrance regions of accelerating jet at that level is moving NE out of central NE ...~ 48 hours, so that helps.. That's your elevated WAA instability burst - all snow even to the Borne Bridge at onset.. Then, the models are closing off the 700 mb in tandem with the height falls above that ( abv ) and when that happens, the whole column destablizes with these direct feed, saturated inflow jets ongoing beneath and in that level. There should be almost synergistic returns out of that and if anything this should be over-achievably proficient in this look - 

I comment in snark ( but sort of privately meant it...), how we have been witnessing in the Global scales, all precipitation events being prolific as anomalous - that appears to be primarily relative to climatology, but I suspect that the models are doing this shorting' too.  Why? Because we are witnessing that, empirically.   The Dec 17 ..easy example:  30 to 40" NY state to CNE?   No, wasn't modeled... These "flukes" are more common because [ enter denial of truth here ]...

Here we are faced with a synoptic circumstance screeeeaming for over production.. .

8-12"    ...I don't know if I buy that, when the climo for that look described above in that collage is really color-by-numbers for snowstorm idiots.  I guess we'll see..

But, I think the Euro is too warm in eastern zones with that 1030mb + high antecedent and entrenched.  And when the pressure falls E of the Del Marva, the flow in the interior up here will lag respond, but when it does, we'll have a NNE wind and [probably] much better defined and locked CF somewhere over SE Mass/ Scotts back yard...or thereabouts.  I could see Boston mid way bouncing 35 to 29 and then back to 34 ...back to 30 ... as this feature wavers there ... 

I would also not worry about the 850 mb getting to +1 C ... in fact, with heavy fall rates, that's probably parachuting right through that layer, because in this scenario it is isothermal near-enough to 0C beneath that level to the surface ... not warm enough to melt dense mass falling frozen phase states through it. That's wrt to the EPS above.. .But, I have to admit, I've been through enough of these and given these orbital perspective/synoptic inidcators leading this...the 00z/06z/12z NAM FOUS SFC-800 MB temperature profile at BOS tends to be right ... well, here:

OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z JAN 31 21
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
BOS//682122 -3318 283306 22869192
06000581844 -1418 260102 25929493
12000652846 -0319 271602 27949493
18000796833 -0619 260809 29969393
24000807532 00618 220717 32999295
30000898861 00521 180726 34009596
36050989136 13314 100537 39009996
42094975022 02016 020438 40009699... this means 32F at 980mb ( basically mid way up the Prudential..), ~26F @900mb, ~30F @800mb, 9.5" of snow!
48019974808 -0306 960328 39019900 
54007945222 02005 943620 38990000
60006946420 -0307 943617 36980099

If these grid were incongruous wrt to the total synopsis ..okay, but it dead f'n fits in my mind and I actually think even the higher res Euro is not really hitting the local/studies/ and meso shit that that the old salts yarn how, "we used to have a saying - "  

 

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol wut? I got 8 inches in an hour and a half with thunder.  Bright band with column from 7H to surface -10c ok

We slayed in that thing. I went to bed and woke up to a thunderclap. Looked outside and couldn't even see my neighbor's house it was snowing so hard. Solid 5"/hr+ type stuff for sure.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

NAM is a disaster for most of the Mid-Atlantic. Rug pull time.

Good for us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

TGW and we love it.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah still light snow on Wednesday morning. 

D and D and D

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm seeing nuanced reasons ... more and less valid, to not trust any guidance' singular handling of this system really -

For now  I am taking the 48 hour EPS and the 72 hour EPS, and using those to canvas this.  out of those standard metric(s)/synopsis 101.

This following/below is a collage of the 00z EPS' sfc/500mb heights, 850 mb temperatures... and personal experience/climatology

... that translation of 500 mb heights and surface cyclone track, while that 500 mb deepens that dramatically, with 850 mb therms never exceeding 0C NW of extreme coastal NJ to KBED up in Massachusetts ... is typically 10+" ( as conservative entry -) from N NJ to SE NH ... and closer to 20" is frequent throughout history wrt to those two canvasing metric/behaviors therein.  

Adding or subtracting from that canvas ... based on meso this... or whatever that, but there's too much data flying around that is obfuscating the picture of this thing at this point.  More so than any blizzard it may or may not cause.  Sometimes the simpler explanation turns out to be the truth.. 

I don't know if I buy these QPF gaps. This is not 1992 wet snow with a lower growth region in a CCB sounding that's going up and over orographic striations inland ... imposing systemic lee-side drying... I don't see that.  This is mid level bonkers!  There's likely to be a compression of the thermal field along an elevated frontal slope as it escapes slantwise polarward ...as the 500 mb initial flow begins to veer aloft and up-glides that interface ... That's your elevated WAA instability burst - all snow even to the Borne Bridge at onset.. Then, the models are closing off the 700 mb in tandem with the height falls above that ( abv ) and when that happens, the whole column destablizes with these direct feed, saturated inflow jets ongoing beneath and in that level. There should be almost synergistic returns out of that and if anything this should be over-achievably proficient in this look - 

I comment in snark ( but sort of privately meant it...), how we have been witnessing in the Global scales, all precipitation events being prolific as anomalous - that appears to be primarily relative to climatology, but I suspect that the models are doing this shorting' too.  Why? Because we are witnessing that, empirically.   The Dec 17 ..easy example:  30 to 40" NY state to CNE?   No, wasn't modeled... These "flukes" are more common because [ enter denial of truth here ]...

Here we are faced with a synoptic circumstance screeeeaming for over production.. .

8-12"    ...I don't know if I buy that, when the climo for that look described above in that collage is really color-by-numbers for snowstorm idiots.  I guess we'll see..

But, I think the Euro is too warm in eastern zones with that 1030mb + high antecedent and entrenched.  And when the pressure falls E of the Del Marva, the flow in the interior up here will lag respond, but when it does, we'll have a NNE wind and [probably] much better defined and locked CF somewhere over SE Mass/ Scotts back yard...or thereabouts.  I could see Boston mid way bouncing 35 to 29 and then back to 34 ...back to 30 ... as this feature wavers there ... 

I would also not worry about the 850 mb getting to +1 C ... in fact, with heavy fall rates, that's probably parachuting right through that layer, because is isothermal beneath and colder than that above.  That's wrt to the EPS above.. .But, I have admit, I've been through enough of these and given these orbital perspective/synoptic inidcators leading this...the 00z/06z/12z NAM FOUS SFC-800 MB temperature profile at BOS tends to be right ... well, here:

OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z JAN 31 21
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
BOS//682122 -3318 283306 22869192
06000581844 -1418 260102 25929493
12000652846 -0319 271602 27949493
18000796833 -0619 260809 29969393
24000807532 00618 220717 32999295
30000898861 00521 180726 34009596
36050989136 13314 100537 39009996
42094975022 02016 020438 40009699... this means 32F at 980mb ( basically mid way up the Prudential..), ~26F @900mb, ~30F @800mb, 9.5" of snow!
48019974808 -0306 960328 39019900 
54007945222 02005 943620 38990000
60006946420 -0307 943617 36980099

If these grid were asynchronous wrt to the total synopsis ..okay, but it dead f'n fits in my mind and I actually think even the higher res Euro is not really hitting the local/studies/ and meso shit that that the old salts yarn about the old days. 

 

I'm harder than a diamond in an ice storm right now.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM tickled east but it actually won’t make the eastern peeps happy because it’s weird in that t delays the heavy precip so BL warms there. It’s kind of tilted with the precip shield.

[EastonSN+]

GFS v.16 has not waivered in days. Goodbye old GFS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM tickled east but it actually won’t make the eastern peeps happy because it’s weird in that t delays the heavy precip so BL warms there. It’s kind of tilted with the precip shield.

define eastern ..ha

[CarverWX]

Looks like the V16 and NAM are very close. Is there any chance they are right?