Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[EastonSN+]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, But your not even in the same room as the 41" in PA.

24 hours to shift that east.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Are you Serious!?!?  
 

Also, can someone explain how we All don’t trust the NAM, MAINLY because it’s always Too Amped and Too Far NW.  

 

BUT HERE it’s the Furthest SE!!  A trend in store tomorrow?  

I wouldn’t toss any models right now...except maybe the Canadian suite which is probably still too far SW though they made a decent jump toward other guidance at 00z. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian still seems like garbage here 

[Blizz]

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian still seems like garbage here 

It is.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian still seems like garbage here 

Much improved over 12z though. 

[ice1972]

Just now, Blizz said:

I'll take 17 long and hard........

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canadian still seems like garbage here 

I wouldn’t trust its thermals. 

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You live in the ocean.

James has to move inland

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wouldn’t trust its period. 

Agree.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Agree.

Even better.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You live in the ocean.

Close, Sandbar.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Right now, the difference between a SEMA, RI Jackpot zone versus the current modeling of a NE PA jackpot potential evolution is a disturbance in the northern stream that phases in the backside (west side) of the long wave trough centered over PA/OH.  As the trough enters the western Atlantic and the Gulf Stream, this energy phases in the backside and in turn allows the H5 low to close off sooner and further southwest.  If for some reason this disturbance is delayed in some fashion, the H5 does not close off until off the coast of NJ and therefore the warming and the dry slot and the occlusion does not happen as fast or as soon and is further northeast.  Again, just a minor detail that could have dramatic consequences.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

lol if I were doing that the first thing I’d go for would be the actual graphic.

We go down a notch when TW doesn’t draw it up. 

Timmay!!

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t toss any models right now...except maybe the Canadian suite which is probably still too far SW though they made a decent jump toward other guidance at 00z. 

Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston like Juno in 1/2015. 

[TheSnowman]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep, I can't think of a miller B like this that had the max snow over E PA. I'm sure you can correct me though if I'm wrong. These have the best action from my backyard up through New England 95% of the time outside of flukes like 12/30/00. For once the later development actually benefits NYC though rather than me cursing as the best snow shifts to Boston. 

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ocean effect snow showers developing in the northerly surface flow.  Should see a few snow showers tonight and tomorrow morning.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

And for me that was a very close shave but I just missed out on the really heavy snow. The eastern half of Long Island had up to 18" as the coastal storm blossomed. It's always a close shave here one way or the other. Nemo in Feb 2013 had over 30" in central Long Island, Juno in 2015 had over 2 feet, etc. It just never quite made it to NYC. But there are others where it does like Dec 2003, and the flukes like 12/30/00 and 2/25/10 which unfortunately for you guys cut due north. 

[Fozz]

8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

That was the First storm Paul Kocin had on The Weather Channel, and totally screwed up haha.  He still gets chills if you mention the Millennium storm.  But EVERYONE missed that.  

Between that storm and March 2001, it was quite the nasty winter for him.

But I remember the later years much better. PDII was among his best.

[78Blizzard]

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Phinns going to like the Uncle.

Actually, the 12z was better for him.

[ORH_wxman]

The Ukie was kind of weird. Had almost a mesolow developing E of MA and tucking in colder air...but not just at sfc. The mesolow was aloft too. 

But anwyay, 00z run was an improvement for most posters in this forum. 

[dryslot]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Actually, the 12z was better for him.

I don't think he will mind this one as well, 19" instead of 21", Whats 2" among friends........lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't think he will mind this one as well.

Yeah basically the same as 12z for his hood. 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah basically the same as 12z for his hood. 

19"-21", Noise.

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways, not staying up for the euro tonight.

We’ll see if we can get that later northeast push. Probably would benefit just about everyone on here. 

[78Blizzard]

The foreigners are getting a clue and shifting slowly toward the NAM.  

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't think he will mind this one as well, 19" instead of 21", Whats 2" among friends........lol

I'm just surprised it didn't take the low off the coast near Jacksonville on the way to Portugal.

[Ginx snewx]

Holy shit on the winds. 50s gusts. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I'm just surprised it didn't take the low off the coast near Jacksonville on the way to Portugal.

Uncle UKIE's sober.

His Uk bar closed down because a  COV. Strain traced overseas from a Methuen Brothel "might be more severe"

[New Hampshire Weather]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

24 hours to shift that east.

Probably more. Plenty of room for early-storm shifts especially with mesoscale features