Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dendrite]

Just now, Hoth said:

NAM actually did a good job here in December. Sniffed out our dry slot/mixing issues. Let's hope it's not hitting the bottle here.

It always hits the bottle.

[NorEastermass128]

Well, I’ve got all my hopes and dreams on the 0z NAM and my AMC shares. What can possibly go wrong?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

NAM actually did a good job here in December. Sniffed out our dry slot/mixing issues. Let's hope it's not hitting the bottle here.

25% of it being right would be sweet. Just get H7 to stall east of NJ and not over DE.  

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don't agree, not for the areas that experience banding for several hours, snow growth is off the charts.  Kuchera is off in areas that don't experience banding yes. 

We'll see what the BL levels truly are with that. Kuchera fluffs stuff up a little too aggressive. Proved it many times with reports out of Bedford, MA ground truth.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It always hits the bottle.

 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

25% of it being right would be sweet. Just get H7 to stall east of NJ and not over DE.  

Better yet, let's get that H7 to stall south of Hampton Bays

[78Blizzard]

3k NAM is still nice here with over 1.6" qpf.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It always hits the bottle.

With a particular predilection towards the absythe. I still remember the Feb '13 run where it dumped like 80" on Ray.

[CoastalWx]

Come on NAM.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Well, I’ve got all my hopes and dreams on the 0z NAM and my AMC shares. What can possibly go wrong?

Can WSB squeeze snow maps too?

[CoastalWx]

It did get a little sharper with that trough, but at the same time, the low was a little more coherent to our south which is what you want to see. 

[skierinvermont]

19 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Are any of the models other than the GFS close to redeveloping the precip Tuesday night? 

This storm is so unusual. The stronger surface low is still off of Delaware Tuesday 8am and doesn't reach 40/70 until Wednesday 1am. The GFS was damn close to making this into two storms. I doubt that happens as I've never seen it.. but super cool. The weaker low goes off to the NE monday night but if the Delaware low could be even more dominant it could redevelop the precip..

So the Euro Ensemble #23 has the 2nd low become totally dominant... and the brunt of the storm is Tuesday and Tuesday night ... not Monday... lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

One time. One. Time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ahem

You know how this ends

[Greg]

still snowing at hour 84.

 

[Hoth]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One time. One. Time.

Regression may come for the Connecticuters. But it not this day!

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another 5min before the nam high wears off but a boy can dream nude.

Check out 0Z HRRR

[Greg]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ahem

You know how this ends

Uh uh uh uh uh uh GodNam. 

[CT Rain]

I mean if we can get that 700 low a bit farther S&E when it stalls out it would be epic for SNE.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Greg said:

days and days

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Check out 0Z HRRR

No way...LFG!

[weathafella]

You could tell in the early panels this was goin to be better.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Regression may come for the Connecticuters. But it not this day!

West of the River and south of 84 hasn't had a 15"+ storm in 8 years. 

[Hoth]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I mean if we can get that 700 low a bit farther S&E when it stalls out it would be epic for SNE.

Not uncommon with Miller Bs to get a little last minute east trend, if history is any guide.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Does Ray’s NARCAN do the NAM?

[skierinvermont]

5 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

So the Euro Ensemble #23 has the 2nd low become totally dominant... and the brunt of the storm is Tuesday and Tuesday night ... not Monday... lol

also #48

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No way...LFG!

Wow. HRRR is a doozy. Very NAM-ish. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Love that loop de loop on the 12k

[Hoth]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

West of the River and south of 84 hasn't had a 15"+ storm in 8 years. 

Really? I thought we got close to that fast moving storm in '17. Far SW CT must've hit that in the '16 blizzard.