Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1-2 degrees warmer at H925 across e MA..depending where you are.

I'd have some mixing here, but should be mainly snow.

 

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As was said, it's mostly done with the qpf at hr66.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:15 AM, PhineasC said:

The trend is still happening. 

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I think its about done....JMO.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:10 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

Why are those Euro clown maps night and day?

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It’s how each vendor decides to interpret the the model output.  It’s why it’s preached ad nauseam to not use them verbatim but to use them as just another tool to vet out what a model is showing.

[weathafella]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:05 AM, dryslot said:

That SV map i posted kind of spooked you it seemed.

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Their algorithm is weird at times.   With heavy rates on the front end and a cold column 925 on up how do you get upper 30s?   I’m not sure it’s doable in that synoptic situation.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:15 AM, PhineasC said:

The trend is still happening. 

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When your storm tracking ...Do the kids sorta study you in the morning to see if the over nite trend is "their friend" or if its time to hide lol

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/31/2021 at 12:56 AM, Connecticut Appleman said:

Says the man who is checking out the weather charts to see if it it safe to go outside

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Yes my man . Such a good song 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:16 AM, Bostonseminole said:

what did your model say? the one you always post

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Don't get 18z....12z gave us about 6", so this run is probably like 4", but like I said....I think the model is too liberal with the rain given H925 thermals and intensity of precip.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:07 AM, moneypitmike said:

 

This is a thing of beauty for me......stop that warmth intrusion right now though.  That stormvista map is spooky.

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This may be the end of the usefulness of StormVista's maps if Pivotal is correct.

[Damage In Tolland]

So much beer is just flowing thru the forum

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wxbell is a bit optimistic, SV is pessimistic....I would probably lean 2/3 in favor of wxbell, though.

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Thanks. Thinking 1-3 here. 3-6 inside 128. 6+ outside of 128. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:17 AM, weathafella said:

Their algorithm is weird at times.   With heavy rates on the front end and a cold column 925 on up how do you get upper 30s?   I’m not sure it’s doable in that synoptic situation.

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I don't like using there snow maps as a rule because i find them inconsistent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice:

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

So much beer is just flowing thru the forum

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need more jugs with the mugs

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

So much beer is just flowing thru the bloodstream

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Never would have guessed lol

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't get 18z....12z gave us about 6", so this run is probably like 4", but like I said....I think the model is too liberal with the rain given H925 thermals and intensity of precip.

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when we start having to rely on rates to 'mix down' colder air, we're in trouble.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:17 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When your storm tracking ...Do the kids sorta study you in the morning to see if the over nite trend is their friend or if its time to hide lol

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They do that every morning. I am what they used to call “mercurial.” 

[Bostonseminole]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:18 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

Thanks. Thinking 1-3 here. 3-6 inside 128. 6+ outside of 28. 

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dude.. I hope not.. where is outside 28?

 

[dryslot]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:18 AM, 78Blizzard said:

This may be the end of the usefulness of StormVista's maps if Pivotal is correct.

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They don't have 06z and 18z yet.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:09 AM, dryslot said:

So blame the vendor not the poster, Someone asked i posted it, WTF??

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Who is blaming you??? Lol are you ok?

[weathafella]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:19 AM, Henry's Weather said:

when we start having to rely on rates to 'mix down' colder air, we're in trouble.

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Why?  That’s how it is in most coastals.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Maybe a expired edible

[Damage In Tolland]

Even Burt Reynolds.. in that Black Trans Am.. all gonna meet down at the ...

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:22 AM, weathafella said:

Why?  That’s how it is in most coastals.

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If we're going from single digits at night to barely maintaining isothermal temp profiles in a day or two, the storm's tucked. Hopefully it doesn't work out that way. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:19 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice:

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Based on that output and the WeatherModels snow map, that's still a decent amount of taint for everyone E of ORH,

[Bostonseminole]

SREF's look good

[Hoth]

  On 1/31/2021 at 12:38 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The melts would be literal all timer stuff.

Ants squad car buried up to the mirrors while Ray bails out the foot of rainwater in his basement.

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[78Blizzard]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:20 AM, dryslot said:

They don't have 06z and 18z yet.

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Sorry, I meant WeatherModels.

[NorEastermass128]

I’m beyond melting. We’re at the evaporation stage now. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/31/2021 at 1:22 AM, weathafella said:

Why?  That’s how it is in most coastals.

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I mean absolutely.  Example here look NJ to Maryland pre precip then look under the heavy precip.  Good teaching moment 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there going to be a fight?