Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[PhineasC]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully something like 12z NAM verifies. That was much better for a larger area and still cold enough for most SE areas to see snow. 

Yep, NAM was a crowd-pleaser as usual, but I just wish it wasn't the NAM. Like the friend who is fun at parties, but when it comes time for reality and you need to move a couch his phone goes straight to voicemail.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, FRWEATHA said:

Go to your MD casa. Then I can get those SE ticks and we’re both happy.

Very high chance of a fail down there. I would sell hard on those huge totals in MD.

[mreaves]

42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That sucker hole over my head would almost make me cry. 

[dryslot]

Just now, mreaves said:

That sucker hole over my head would almost make me cry. 

You guys have been fine over there, Wouldn't hurt you to miss one............

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

You guys have been fine over there, Wouldn't hurt you to miss one............

The upslope machine will bury NNE either way. I just want my synoptic pot roast first.

[radarman]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z RGEM was good here

Northampton restaurants could use the business from ORHers out for a weenie drive

[Typhoon Tip]

I just find it so ironic that here we are in the midst of an empirically/verified fastest hemispheric mode ...probably the most so ever observed - maybe even associated with GW/climate change pressing against boreal winter climate... whatever -

And this?

This thing could be a 30 hours of steady > median impact ... with 12 hour embedded at major.  Could be - there's time.. Even I find this difficult to contain honestly. I mean I won't lie - Meteorological stuff is built into my soul and this is a passion ( among others I have...) ...anyway, depending on the pervasive nature that realization pans out will determine ... historic?  I don't know - cannot be ruled out, though. I cannot impress enough, this was never fully realizing the synoptic/super -synoptic hemistphere.  They don't have to, is the thing...sometimes you only get 40 .. 60 ... 70% returns ... At this thing's governing hemispheric signal, even 80% efficiency/return would be historic ( and you can never really get 100% - that's a theoretical limitation and entropy makes it an asymptotically approached limit )  I think we are getting close ( obviously estimating...) to the 2/3rds, may 3/4 return threshold as is, where prior was about 50 ~

The problem is... the EPS mean 500 mb height for 5 straight clicks ( c/o TT's access) have shown two things:

-- this is steadily deepened/ positioned S toward the historically infer -able bull's eye for stalled/protracted events... being one;

-- but earlier in this thread I discussed the slow/duration-al aspect of this as [probably] rooted in the fact that it is a teleconnector "Lagrangian region"  ( rhetorical license)  ... where it is caught in amber in the planetary seam, between ridge waves... Thus, the system in total may move along at the R-wave modulation timing - that's code for quite slow.  When looking at the EPS mean ...that gives the "look" of being a stable scenario from west of California to S of NS ...? That's why that looks that way.  It's like the thing pauses for a while ..

Another artful observation .. it seems like the Earth does this once in a while ... regardless of the system. If a given system over longer-termed observation is dominated by one characteristic ( in this case 'speed' ) .. when something comes along and offsets/perturbs that constancy ( anomaly relative to the longer term anomaly) it goes on to disproportionately f* the shit out of the system as punishment for the prior stasis - hahah...  Like it's our fault we enjoyed of a smooth winter for 5 weeks - now we're gonna pay.  Muah hahaha... No but seriously, the other way some times seems to yaw violently. Interesting..   

Like, that marathon runner in the 1970s the wrote that book about heart health, had a pulse rate of 40 beats per minute while relaxed...was cut up and svelte and veiny in shape...  found on the side of the road having died instantly from a massive coronary while out on one of his 10 mile stints - like what

[EastonSN+]

Yet another GFS V.16 run which waived almost not at All from all previous runs. Disregard anything the old GFS spits out. 

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The upslope machine will bury NNE either way. I just want my synoptic pot roast first.

I don't have the luxury of any upslope, Its all synoptic here.

[NECT]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX not impressed with NW areas I see.  

Is it just me, or does anyone else expect the heavy snow to trend NW?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yet another GFS V.16 run which waived almost not at All from all previous runs. Disregard anything the old GFS spits out. 

 

NJ to LI bombed.

[RDRY]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX not impressed with NW areas I see.  

Weighing the GFS?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I don't have the luxury of any upslope, Its all synoptic here.

Maine really needs a solid dumping. 

[PowderBeard]

53 minutes ago, dryslot said:

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

NJ to LI bombed.

30 plus on LI.

GFS v.16 has outperformed all other models wrt consistency by a long shot. Extremely impressed.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX not impressed with NW areas I see.  

That’s probably too aggressive in SE areas.

[dryslot]

That 12z GGEM is really tucked in.

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

I weigh the ICON like seven up, never have never will

[dryslot]

The sideways map for the 12z ukie best i can tell takes the SLP into the GOM.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Any 12z Para clowns to toss up?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I weigh the ICON like seven up, never have never will

I used it a few times in marginal situations when it’s almost go-time because the model determines it’s own ratios/totals. The key is to make sure it has the synoptics ironed out first. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Any 12z Para clowns to toss up?

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

30 plus on LI.

GFS v.16 has outperformed all other models wrt consistency by a long shot. Extremely impressed.

Just need like 30 mile push north. Come on baby. Do it for mama.

[ineedsnow]

CMC loves the CTRV!

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That 12z GGEM is really tucked in.

RGEM told us what the GGEM would be like.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Just need like 30 mile push north. Come on baby. Do it for mama.

CMC so tucked we go to some rain after 8 to 12.

[CoastalWx]

Canadians are pretty warm. Congrats PA to Berks.

[EastonSN+]

[PhineasC]

Great runs so far this morning. Sheesh.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Just need like 30 mile push north. Come on baby. Do it for mama.

Ya I mean I get 10” and LI gets 30”..we cd t have that Nonsense.