Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Lol, NAM at 60 hrs has a full blown blizzard going here....Reggie doesn't even have a flake, hmmmmm

Delayed but not denied

[dendrite]

RGEM eventually goes bonkers for the interior.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats DC to BLT with 3FT on rgem.

[dendrite]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats DC to BLT with 3FT on rgem.

Almost 4” QPF for DC.

[ORH_wxman]

Lol what is the RGEM doing. So different aloft. Cuts off h5 and massively deepens it well Southwest. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Good run. 

Yeah me too - I did a 6.2 .. though only ran 5.75 of it.. But I only had modest right hamstring discomfort this time so I think that's finally improving.  Man, those things linger for ever and

..oh wait -

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Jersey croaked again. Modeling has been all over that.

Models in fairly good agreement of a central NJ and west of Boston jackpot zones.

For CT seems that far SW or far NE best places. What interesting is if u look at most of the KUs SW CT benefits most. Maybe why Tip put SW CT as MA in his map.

[WeatherX]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats DC to BLT with 3FT on rgem.

Has to be sipping some Canadian mist and coke 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol what is the RGEM doing. So different aloft. Cuts off h5 and massively deepens it well Southwest. 

It has always tended to be amped beyond 36.  Feels as if the last 2 years it does it less, I think it was upgraded in 2018 which lessened that bias somewhat but it still does it from time to time

[Sn0waddict]

Icon looks nice. Crushes interior folks around hour 80 as well.

[dryslot]

[NorEastermass128]

Congrats WNE and NNE on the RGEM. Toaster bath material for all coast, 128 belt and SE MA. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...)

Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...).

That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor.   It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up...  But another 3-5" tacked on to  that distribution ( which I'm thinking is more plausible than not...) in that mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention...

But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to do ...  Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag -

In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

[dendrite]

Looks like we still have some synoptics to iron out before getting too crazy about the deets.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Congrats WNE and NNE on the RGEM. Toaster bath material for all coast, 128 belt and SE MA. 

Would be just fine near and just inside 128. It’s like -3ish at 925 there.

[tavwtby]

32 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Love those last hours bands, 78 had a great ending.

13 did as well..iirc

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...)

Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...).

That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor.   It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up...  But another 3-5" on tact on that distribution in the mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention...

But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to ...  Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag -

In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

Lol. Your best one yet. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like we still have some synoptics to iron out before getting too crazy about the deets.

Still a good 60+ hrs out, Going to be more changes.

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be just fine near and just inside 128. It’s like -3ish at 925 there.

Ok. Need some SE ticks soon or it’s game over here and down there. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be just fine near and just inside 128. It’s like -3ish at 925 there.

RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F.

Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE. 

[Bostonseminole]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be just fine near and just inside 128. It’s like -3ish at 925 there.

yeah,, he thinks his rockport climo extends to burlington

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Ok. Need some SE ticks soon or it’s game over here and down there. 

I don’t think the 12 z “RDPS” is going to verify. I expect it will tick SE 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Ok. Need some SE ticks soon or it’s game over here and down there. 

NAM would be ok with that big burst for 6+hours even for you.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F.

Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE. 

Yeah WTF LOL. 

[EastonSN+]

GFS V.16 has been by far the most consistent model during the last few days wrt snowfall maps and Storm progression. Absolutely no reason to even look at the old GFS anymore.

[Go Kart Mozart]

46 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wow the RGEM is sick. Sorry old news probably. 

The RGEM makes most of us sick, 38" for DC?

[CoastalWx]

Actually I was looking at an old run I guess. It is warm 128 on east with a canal track. LOL.

[CoastalWx]

At least the water table in Taunton is filled.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

The RGEM makes most of us sick, 38" for DC?

You can sell that. Getting over 10" there in a single event is nearly impossible.

[PhineasC]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least the water table in Taunton is filled.

That's what I was thinking. Those guys need this precious moisture and it is unfair for the interior folks to deny them.