Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Spanks45]

Dare I say days and days on the Nam back here? Now lets get the rest of the models to follow suit and the entire region can enjoy this storm....

[Bostonseminole]

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That actually looked nice there as it stops and then moves back over you. 

looks like maybe we get dryslotted towards the end of the NAM? looks like mostly showery after 12z tuesday... maybe mostly at Monday night/early AM Tuesday storm..

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This would work with more to come for some:

My gawd!! We take!!!!

[NorEastermass128]

WOR crowd looking good now. Pick those heads up out of the Cheerios?

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

@PhineasC is going to get smoked.  Nice look there with this north tick.

Still has the huge air pile-up in Eastern Mass though no matter what happens.... big QPF there.

Yep, starting to get that signal I have noticed shows up in coastals with a local precip max over my house. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

 

looks like maybe we get dryslotted towards the end of the NAM? looks like mostly showery after 12z tuesday... maybe mostly at Monday night/early AM Tuesday storm..

We do and then it looks to move back in and regenerate. 850 temps get borderline well inland too. Might be low level stuff as light snow or snizzle  as temps drop. Pretty sure we’ll slot. It’s a given. What I want other models to show, is that massive thump for like 9 hrs or so. 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

For those pointing out the CTRV, the NAM shows it very well at 12z

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

At least out East... this looks like it moves in late Monday evening... like 6-7  pm and the majority is over by Tuesday morning... 8-12 hours basically 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

 

looks like maybe we get dryslotted towards the end of the NAM? looks like mostly showery after 12z tuesday... maybe mostly at Monday night/early AM Tuesday storm..

We get dryslotted after about 66 hours until the ML goods try and rotate back through at the very end of the run. 

I can’t complain about a dryslot though in this one if you are getting 12 hours of firehose-enhanced WCB. 

[radarman]

Nobody in the valley should be complaining about that run... that's like best case scenario IMO

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

 

That NAM run says what valley... hopefully the others follow 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We get dryslotted after about 66 hours until the ML goods try and rotate back through at the very end of the run. 

I can’t complain about a dryslot though in this one if you are getting 12 hours of firehose-enhanced WCB. 

I will gladly take that and let the currier queens have that deformation. 

[PhineasC]

Wow the RGEM is sick. Sorry old news probably. 

[mattm4242]

Sheesh that NAM run, hoping we stay mostly snow in my hood. Love that weenie 2 QPF spot right on my head.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. 

The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run. 

So many of the biggies over the years end with a final band that is entrenched in a cold column with excellent snow growth yielding a quick couple three inches of fluff

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Dare I say days and days on the Nam back here? Now lets get the rest of the models to follow suit and the entire region can enjoy this storm....

That would be very special for us. But it is the nam so the high is wearing off as I frolik around the house cleaning up all the smashed crayons.

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So many of the biggies over the years end with a final band that are entrenched in a cold column with excellent snow growth yielding a quick couple three inches of fluff

Love those last hours bands, 78 had a great ending.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The area that jacked earlier this week should do well.  Just north of the Pike in eastern ORH county.   
My area looks to be good too

Keep talking dirty to me, Dave.

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That would be very special for us. But it is the nam so the high is wearing off as I frolik around the house cleaning up all the smashed crayons.

Yup, save those crayons just in case, you might need them around 1:05 this afternoon....you could just thrown them in the garbage disposal if they are too small

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This would work with more to come for some:

Someone mentioned that a local MET said something about a dry slot onto CT. I think he was using the Euro from last night. That will change of course. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So many of the biggies over the years end with a final band that are entrenched in a cold column with excellent snow growth yielding a quick couple three inches of fluff

So true. Almost all the biggies, I’ll be out cleaning up with a regeneration of currier and Ives as a parting gift. Love that

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So many of the biggies over the years end with a final band that are entrenched in a cold column with excellent snow growth yielding a quick couple three inches of fluff

Yeah it does seem that way. Jan ‘15 and Jan ‘11 both did. Jan ‘05 did it on ‘roids and I got like 7” in 2 hours. Lol. 

If we can get trend the h5 low staying south and a little less elongated, that will increase the chances of some goodies at the end. But if all I get is a 12 hour ‘roided-up WCB, I cant complain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. 

The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run. 

Are we a fluff bomb interior SNE? 

[moneypitmike]

Clown.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

WOR crowd looking good now. Pick those heads up out of the Cheerios?

When weren’t they good? This has looked good back to ENY / Berks since we started tracking it 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When weren’t they good? This has looked good back to ENY / Berks since we started tracking it 

A few days ago maybe. Looked more pedestrian. Now, not so much for the WOR crowd. I now have my bowl of Cheerios at the ready. 

[dendrite]

Phin jinxing the 12z RGEM

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed....the "no blockbuster in the second half of a mod or strong nina" rule looks to stand.

Looking at the 00z EPS/GEFS means in their respective handling ... I would be inclined to ask, 'how about now'?  I will hold off pending both this 12z suite, but also because that sounds douchy - lol

( Also- I am presently on page 69 of this thread and can see it's ballooned by another 12 clicks ...so I am behind, so taken with a grain - )

I would not toss the 06z ICON solution's trend for robuster 500 mb depth ... The hints that are carried through those frames suggestive that the model "wants" to truly stall and protract a CCB in the area, is highly supported by the general tapestry of the EPS/GFS means... 

I feel the 00z Euro was the right idea in bumping back NW but I am a little non-plussed that it's 500mb hgt depth went the other way by 4 or 6 dm after the close/quasi closure  - the EPS mean being deeper is still the better fit for the larger orbital telecon/super-synoptic and observed synoptic surrounding hemisphere, and this thing has been shirked for realization of that offers the region between 90W-60W and ~ 35N and 55 N boxed region along.  I have maintained that ...altho admittedly, pounding the moderate snow + duration)/2 = bootleg major sort of Broadway production, but I'm seeing attempts by the above ens means to get this more fully realized.   The 00z/06z ICON blend actually looks like a better surface featured physical representation of what this thing should do...

It seems every model is carrying something that seems more reasonable withing a bag of their own idiosyncratic distractions.  Take the NAM ...I agree with the 06z solution that keeps the QPF arc in tact around the NW arc, but it seems to be too progressive with the lower troposphere in general ..given the 500 mb is also trending toward a NY Bite anchor point. 

about that - notice the 500  mb 522 dm height core in the ICON!!  Over NY, ...implodes than pivots SE under LI toward 96 hours... That type of motion usually means there is a F- wara effect going on with a lower tropospheric vortex that is pivoting W temporarily... Yet we're not quite seeing that depicted ...that's uneasy and I thnk this overall situation could modulate toward a major event anyway from NYC-PWM ...  Hammer's cocked and the psycho is gently squeezing the trigger - it's that close

The title of this thread can be changed from watching closely to Immanent, with 'major characteristics looking more possible' or something to those affects.

[Spanks45]

Lol, NAM at 60 hrs has a full blown blizzard going here....Reggie doesn't even have a flake, hmmmmm

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Phin jinxing the 12z RGEM

He keeps it up and he will be returned to MD.