Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs.

Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these.

 

700mb low over head up here.  Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

Yea. I pointed it out overnight. Looks like h7 goes right up I91. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you blew the whistle up there?

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the H5 trended quite a bit further north on last night's runs.

Guess this is why the mid-level deform axis is in the 'Dacks on some of these.

 

700mb low over head up here.  Probably a bit too far north now, ha.

You are not making any friends.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro doesn't start for us until noon

Could be but these always seems to come in early 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, kdxken said:

What happened to Sunday?

Ask whomever called for a Sunday afternoon start I guess?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

06z Eps with a tick se.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I pointed it out overnight. Looks like h7 goes right up I91. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you blew the whistle up there?

I got weenied by half a dozen for saying there's still plenty of time left, ha.  We have a lot of time left still.  Another 48 hours of models.

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I pointed it out overnight. Looks like h7 goes right up I91. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you blew the whistle up there?

Everyone cried and blew the whistle yesterday. I even said we know how these things go. 

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro doesn't start for us until noon

What's a few hours between friends?

[kdxken]

On 1/27/2021 at 7:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well there’s a few that think the storms 6 days away starting on Tuesday . But most of us know it’s Sunday nite into Tuesday nite .. so that means Friday at 48 hours out we should know 

I did.

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Everyone cried and blew the whistle yesterday. I even said we know how these things go. 

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

What's a few hours between friends?

A party?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, powderfreak said:

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

That’s exactly it. I’m guilty of it.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

To be fair it was harder up there. I was referring more to people in SNE. 4 days out and people are cancelling.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everyone cried and blew the whistle yesterday. I even said we know how these things go. 

You right. The se trends though were undeniable ...combined with the seasonal ‘vibe’ of systems slipping to our se, the game wasn’t looking good for west zones.

[GCWarrior]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

2011 

Go big or go home! NAM certainly has that look.  What a burial that storm was.  Savoy jackpot! 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To be fair it was harder up there. I was referring more to people in SNE. 4 days out and people are cancelling.

There's still a ton of spread in the 6z EPS ensembles... several with 0 precip up here at all, other's with 1" back in MSS in N.NY.

Uncertainty is still very high IMO.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Man we are riding the like here.... should be interesting 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It happens more these days because we start tracking storms at like Day 9.  By Day 5 it feels like it's almost "go time."  Can't lock in a solution before the NAM even has a chance to sample it, ha.

The fact is, we’ve  been seeing 10-day phantoms fir the past month.  Seems like one really long lead up to what will hopefully be a mecs or better.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You right. The se trends though were undeniable ...combined with the seasonal ‘vibe’ of systems slipping to our se, the game wasn’t looking good for west zones.

You look to be in a good spot IMO.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Man we are riding the like here.... should be interesting 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great..it dropped the job on my head.

[CoastalWx]

Ray may get his CF finally. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look to be in a good spot IMO.

I see the finger of the first max zone in PA/NJ beginning to tickle a little further NE but regardless, 8-12” works. That secondary max in the east has been ramping up too.

I would be festive to get this 10+ for big chunk of the region. 

Be careful though...Ray and Kev want to tie you up in their woodsheds, disrobe you, and go boys gon wild. So watch your back when you leave your house.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray may get his CF finally. 

I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours. 

 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours. 

 

Looks like leftovers here ugh

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You look to be in a good spot IMO.

Thanks 

[The 4 Seasons]

Is ORH ever really in a bad spot, i mean, lets be real here

[CarverWX]

Well last night runs suck for here. I was hoping this would be a nice 8-12 storm but looks more like a 3-6 at best.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Looks like leftovers here ugh

You may struggle in the valley compared to further east or in the Berks. You should still get a solid storm though. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours. 

 

Yeah that looks good there.