Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dryslot]

Thermals? Its only 0.5" qpf here so that would be about right  but its been the outlier too.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS looks terrible to me...WTF

Snowgoose FTW? (sorry I had to lol)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Thermals? Its only 0.5" qpf here so that would be about right  but its been the outlier too.

Couldn't care less, just found it strange.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Snowgoose FTW? (sorry I had to lol)

Yea, that verifies, I'll pay his met student loans.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

GFS gets the 850 0°C line up to Plymouth and the 925 line almost up to Boston.  Yet the Para doesn't get the 850 line any further than the outer cape, and the 925 line just up to the canal.  Makes a big difference in why SE MA jacks on the Para.

The v16 did a lot better on the 12/17 event overall than the retiring GFS, but the retiring GFS had us down here quite a bit colder and busted. Reversed this time with these-old GFS has the crappy thermals and the v16 annihilates us and most of you guys too. . 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

at least it Crushes NYC and Jersey ....

Thanks ant.

[78Blizzard]

Model chaos.

[dryslot]

Congrats Zack's Pop!

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

canadian is on roids for eastern zones, wonder if I rain

Nah ... suspect models are in the initial stage of formulating a higher impact consensus ... likely to see a notch higher at similar thermal fields coming from other guidance moving forward. Whack interpretations… The GFS is a vast improvement over prior runs and is falling into said line with trend - some people need to take a break. Lol
 

In fact it’s even possible that a deeper surface pressure south of Long Island, quicker, might trigger more of a northerly component to the wind and cold at that ... and that locks a coastal front into Southeastern mass and it will not move

[jm1220]

Just now, dryslot said:

Congrats Zack's Pop!

Amish Annihilation. 

[dryslot]

Get this as far west as possible before the messenger shuffle takes hold the last 24hrs.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Man, the Canadian is a toaster here 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

00z GFS is tucked, WOR folks will like.

 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Man, the Canadian is a toaster here 

Yeah, you'll be lucky to get an inch out of that disaster.

[PhineasC]

CMC crushes both my houses. LOL

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats Zack's Pop!

I likey but Monad jacks are rare.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... suspect models are in the initial stage of formulating a higher impact consensus ... likely to see a notch higher at similar thermal fields coming from other guidance moving forward. Whack interpretations… The GFS is a vast improvement over prior runs and is falling into said line with trend - some people need to take a break. Lol
 

In fact it’s even possible that a deeper surface pressure south of Long Island, quicker, might trigger more of a northerly component to the wind and cold at that ... and that locks a coastal front into Southeastern mass and it will not move

I don't think anyone was worried about the GFS....it was just a strange run.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, PhineasC said:

CMC crushes both my houses. LOL

Not too often you see 30"+ on the MD/PA border...  Prolly sell for now.   

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not too often you see 30"+ on the MD/PA border...  Prolly sell for now.   

How about a toss far and wide?

[PhineasC]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not too often you see 30"+ on the MD/PA border...  Prolly sell for now.   

For sure. 

[ice1972]

If a blizzard happens but gets wiped out 72 hours later did it it really happen?  That’s where we’re at folks.....this asshat season couldn’t even finish good.....total pass 

[PhineasC]

v16 is super lame compared to the ICON, GFS, and CMC.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

If a blizzard happens but gets wiped out 72 hours later did it it really happen?  That’s where we’re at folks.....this asshat season couldn’t even finish good.....total pass 

Beer? Vape?

[CT Valley Snowman]

Still don't like how there's a heavier precip signal down in the Mid-Atlantic up into New York City and then a secondary across eastern MA.  Seems like interior Connecticut into Western /Central Mass is prone to more dry slotting, or sort of in- between two areas of greater forcing, combine that with the downsloping wind into the valley and I'm concerned this could be a rather modest event around these parts.  Hopefully I'm wrong and the WCB really pounds and we get some consistent decent banding after that and not a shredded mess.  

[Sn0waddict]

All I have is the total precip chart to look at but ukie appears very south lol

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

All I have is the total precip chart to look at but ukie appears very south lol

For supposedly being the second best model it sure seems like it has no idea what it’s doing. 

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

v16 is super lame compared to the ICON, GFS, and CMC.

For you, sure.

[PhineasC]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

For you, sure.

It's basically only interesting in a corner of Massachusetts.

 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

All I have is the total precip chart to look at but ukie appears very south lol

You sound like a ranger at the campground that dumps a 5gal pail of water on the campfire at 9pm.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

If a blizzard happens but gets wiped out 72 hours later did it it really happen?  That’s where we’re at folks.....this asshat season couldn’t even finish good.....total pass 

The panel say yes.  If a blizzard happens, it actually really happened.  Probably be some pictures, obs and videos to prove it.