Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Winter Hill for sure, ha ha.  Without joking though, it has been interesting to see that there hasn't been a distinct ORH Hills enhancement look but more of a general speed convergence enhancement look as the moisture comes ashore in E.Mass.  Like land friction or something causing a pile up of air as it comes off the ocean... the QPF plots almost look like a tide coming inland and then decreasing as you move away from the coast.

All the global models have that look.  Just strong convergence as the air piles up on land like a massive traffic jam, and that strong easterly flow has no where to go but upwards as there's a speed convergence going on in the low levels.

 

 

 

Funny you point that out because that is a lot how Mar 2013 looked too. Saw this QPF Max over coastal E MA. To be fair, this firehose doesn’t look as prolific as that one but it’s still impressive. 

[dryslot]

Nice look on the 18z EPS, Getting jucy lucy.

 

 

[NorEastermass128]

Looks like I may be cooked here. Congrats Methuen?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just ignore the Mets  Go with Emasswx.and modeled qpf . 

I don't think you get as low QPF as some guidance suggests...I understand how banding works. It's the CTRV I am concerned about.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny you point that out because that is a lot how Mar 2013 looked too. Saw this QPF Max over coastal E MA. To be fair, this firehose doesn’t look as prolific as that one but it’s still impressive. 

I’m interested about something. I know you save everything. Do you have the qpf maps saved from the Morch 2013 storm? I’d like to see what they printed out vs. what actually fell and where.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. 

However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. 

I.E Weenie Ridge (N orh hills ) ...and  (E slope Berks) 

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very rapidly deepening system when you look aloft. It’s strengthening but not bombing out. So that sort of limits the magnitude of the lift. 

However, I’ve noticed that models will sometimes under forecast QPF in favored areas on deep layer easterly flow so we'll have to see how it looks as we get closer. 

Love the .4 per 3 hr right in my hood. Nice deform wrapping 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Love the .4 per 3 hr right in my hood. Nice deform wrapping 

Yea, you look good

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Either they're priming the public for the inevitable increase, or thsy aren't too enthused with the slow rate of strengthening and occlusion.

 

1 hour ago, DomNH said:

I'd be pretty surprised if we end up needing a range > 8-14''.

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s also 3+ days out still for much of the region. It’s always easier increase as you get closer than back off from a public reaction standpoint. 

Lol I remember when 8 to 14 was top end. First forecasts morning of Feb 78 were 8 to 16 and I was astounded to hear that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think so, There was still some precip left to be had after hr 90

There was one EPS run on Wednesday, I think, that was that intense....otherwise, that is the best.

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny you point that out because that is a lot how Mar 2013 looked too. Saw this QPF Max over coastal E MA. To be fair, this firehose doesn’t look as prolific as that one but it’s still impressive. 

Yeah it's real even in the weaker/lighter solutions.  Of course there's a larger scale deep layer easterly flow and mid-level lift spreading precip way west, but that's like E MA version of meso-scale precipitation genesis... almost like orographics.  But the lift is from speed convergence of the flow coming ashore not terrain, and some ever so subtle veering of the flow from ESE to ENE under 850mb helping the lowest levels.  It's just going to pile up air into E MA.

That type of strong low level lift also should result in an area of sinking/subsidence air nearby... almost like a standing wave pattern for a time.  Very similar to upslope when you get waves of lift/sink develop.  Of course any mid-level deform banding can overcome that lower stuff too.  Need to watch for some more acute minimums that may not be traditional.  I'm very high confidence at this point in E. MA QPF max... even glancing blow and weaker, you will get that stronger lift there relative to elsewhere.  The mechanism for convergence is pretty strong, sustained cross barrier flow with the shoreline.

[kdxken]

You could set a clock.

 

[weathafella]

Good 12/18 today.   Looking good for warning snows across a large swath of New England 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's real even in the weaker/lighter solutions.  Of course there's a larger scale deep layer easterly flow and mid-level lift spreading precip way west, but that's like E MA version of meso-scale precipitation genesis... almost like orographics.  But the lift is from speed convergence of the flow coming ashore not terrain, and some ever so subtle veering of the flow from ESE to ENE under 850mb helping the lowest levels.  It's just going to pile up air into E MA.

That type of strong low level lift also should result in an area of sinking/subsidence air nearby... almost like a standing wave pattern for a time.  Very similar to upslope when you get waves of lift/sink develop.  Of course any mid-level deform banding can overcome that lower stuff too.  Need to watch for some more acute minimums that may not be traditional.  I'm very high confidence at this point in E. MA QPF max... even glancing blow and weaker, you will get that stronger lift there relative to elsewhere.  The mechanism for convergence is pretty strong, sustained cross barrier flow with the shoreline.

I enjoy reading your posts when you talk about this stuff. Very knowledgeable. 

Ask RI about the "standing wave" in the fire house storm...and the area of Subsidence....maybe part DEUX?

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's real even in the weaker/lighter solutions.  Of course there's a larger scale deep layer easterly flow and mid-level lift spreading precip way west, but that's like E MA version of meso-scale precipitation genesis... almost like orographics.  But the lift is from speed convergence of the flow coming ashore not terrain, and some ever so subtle veering of the flow from ESE to ENE under 850mb helping the lowest levels.  It's just going to pile up air into E MA.

That type of strong low level lift also should result in an area of sinking/subsidence air nearby... almost like a standing wave pattern for a time.  Very similar to upslope when you get waves of lift/sink develop.  Of course any mid-level deform banding can overcome that lower stuff too.  Need to watch for some more acute minimums that may not be traditional.  I'm very high confidence at this point in E. MA QPF max... even glancing blow and weaker, you will get that stronger lift there relative to elsewhere.  The mechanism for convergence is pretty strong, sustained cross barrier flow with the shoreline.

I don't think that we will have the usual subby area away from the low level convergence associated w coastal front....the easterly flow should nix that. I think the subby will be brutal just west of where ever that ends...probably just west of ORH, since immunity to porkings are built into their climo....plus terrain should augment precip on easterly fetch.

I feel like Steve to ORH best....Kev will be okay, but once you get west of him and lower in elevation...oof.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The west slope of ORH hills have sneaky screw potential IMO....near Dave.

[moneypitmike]

Remember the days of weekend storms?  Those are the best.

[Massplow]

What is the timing of this looking like? What time does it look like accumulating snow will start and end 

[weatherwiz]

First stab here in Connecticut. Unless we see serious changes to the overall evolution of this storm in the upper-levels, as modeled right now, and all guidance really, I am quite certain the band of heavy snow would traverse Connecticut. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Massplow said:

What is the timing of this looking like? What time does it look like accumulating snow will start and end 

Probably latter half of Monday PM into Tuesday night for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

First stab here in Connecticut. Unless we see serious changes to the overall evolution of this storm in the upper-levels, as modeled right now, and all guidance really, I am quite certain the band of heavy snow would traverse Connecticut. 

Just about the same as me, except I has a swath of 6-10" in the valley.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just about the same as me, except I has a swath of 6-10" in the valley.

certainly worried about dry air into the valley so could get screwed there. 

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Remember the days of weekend storms?  Those are the best.

I like them during the week, its almost like a day off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I like them during the week, its almost like a day off.

Great working for the state, bc you get to stay home without burning a day in the biggies.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

certainly worried about dry air into the valley so could get screwed there. 

I'm pretty confident we're boned down here. Steve up to Worcester gonna get smoked though.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Here it is. My first stab at a snowmap

First call 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Here it is. My first stab at a snowmap

First call 

Sucking up to Tip?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

sneaky screw potential ..

In this context  ..not so good 
 

Also seems SE mass always has boundary level issues ..i mean lord ...if I lived there and loved snow..I Can see why James ..adapted... as he has, otherwise it’s Snow lover -depression central out there .

[TheSnowman]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Here it is. My first stab at a snowmap

First call 

Thank You for making sure my NE RI town is included in that line 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Here it is. My first stab at a snowmap

First call 

How much for Philly?