Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Henry's Weather]

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

decent amount of Junos there. High end potential seems to still be on the table. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Only 54hrs till the secondary is off the VA coastline at this point.  Time to place more credence in OP solutions.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

decent amount of Junos there. High end potential seems to still be on the table. 

That's a foul for using a name for a winter storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Broadly speaking the EPS had a deeper trof and less shortwave trofing (higher heights) north of the upper low. In fact over the lower Hudson Bay the EPS has shortwave ridging vs the GEFS shortwave trofing.

Do you remember late this last autumn, we were discussion how the GFS was consummately ( and I mean 'consummately' - as in ..almost every run and day and week of the calendar) putting out solutions where the heights over midriff Canada are between 2 and 4 dm lower than the Euro cluster in near terms, and that typically increased to almost 12 dm by D8 -

This was - I suspect and still do ... - related to why the GFS appears to have a velocity surplus in the various jets of the kiss latitudes between the lower Ferrel cell and farther S - i.e, jest streams.  This surplus is quite subtle at other times quite gross. 

Anyway, in reading your bold there smacks of this phenomenon - I've been leaning away from the GFS all along on this, as the whole super-synoptic aspect of the hemisphere are not as suitable to it's native biases as ...say, 4 weeks ago when one could exceed the speed of light in a hot-air balloon -

I mean I'm not tryin' to bun myself or nothin' or vie for a member # 30 here of the EPS ens mean, just sayn'

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's a foul for using a name for a winter storm.

I was hoping to disguise my message from several WOR folks

[dryslot]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Welcome back 

Good thing he had a tether attached to his belt.

[ariof]

NAM quite a ways south at 72h

[78Blizzard]

Just now, ariof said:

NAM quite a ways south at 72h

And east.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Good thing he had a tether attached to his belt.

Quick Staples run to pick up a few more Crayola Crayon 64-packs.

[ariof]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

And east.

Yeah, snow shield is south, low placement is SE.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you remember late this last autumn, we were discussion how the GFS was consummately ( and I mean 'consummately' - as in ..almost every run and day and week of the calendar) putting out solutions where the heights over midriff Canada are between 2 and 4 dm lower than the Euro cluster in near terms, and that typically increased to almost 12 dm by D8 -

This was - I suspect and still do ... - related to why the GFS appears to have a velocity surplus in the various jets of the kiss latitudes between the lower Ferrel cell and farther S - i.e, jest streams.  This surplus is quite subtle at other times quite gross. 

Anyway, in reading your bold there smacks of this phenomenon - I've been leaning away from the GFS all along on this, as the whole super-synoptic aspect of the hemisphere are not as suitable to it's native biases as ...say, 4 weeks ago when one could exceed the speed of light in a hot-air balloon -

I mean I'm not tryin' to bun myself or nothin' or via for a member # 30 here of the EPS ens mean, just sayn'

It's northern stream dominance could definitely be in play here.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

NAM quite a ways south at 72h

 

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

And east.

Good place for it right now on the Nam, There will be a run that will cut right thru the SE areas coming too.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, ariof said:

Yeah, snow shield is south, low placement is SE.

toss

[mattm4242]

Sittin’ at home, with my weather weenie hard/So I gotta check the forum to see if i jackpot in my backyard/picked up the phone, check the forum hoping for double digits/ask the rest of y’all, are you weenies down with it?

[correnjim1]

i think it's gonna snow

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Outside of the valleys, yes...

Yep... always some valley shadowing with this type of flow; extent and degree debatable... I'm never great on the valley amounts call; have busted both ways...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I count 28 of 50 members that hit me at least 10" of snowfall.

Not bad for an ensemble mean-

[Sey-Mour Snow]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure id wanna be in NE Mass.

 

Interesting- heh

I see what you did there, ya I’d want to be further south than far NE Mass, south is best . ORH points SE

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey John! Yes.. thank you for chiming in here. We’ve been trying to explain that to weenies calling for an inch in CT and a foot in E MA. Qpf is tossed. It’s crushjob . They don’t look outside the box

Actually, many times I think there is just too much data (maps) to look at; sometimes its best to pull out the Kocin book and look at similar 500/700/850 setups and check out qpf distribution.  Even just looking at the crude E-Wall euro map is a great starting point to look at the overall pattern...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Left .said she gone 

I said if 12z eps continued its se trend, he gone...but it didn’t, so he here. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

My Nammy loves me, and still pouring snow at 84hrs.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have been wondering about this and I "think" I have a plausible explanation why we are seeing these aggregated clusterings of QPF showing up in some of the recent guidances, packed within 50 miles of coasts N of NJ -

I'm noticing as we are nearing the neared side of the mid range and about to relay off to the outer range of the short range ( ...phew, hate those kind of sentences ), the models are getting interestingly quite cold in the BL at all the major hubs, PHL-NYC-BOS-PWM..   I think we may be getting a bit of long-fetch immediate coastal lift over CF effects there - I am not sure even the depictions of the higher resolution Euro species would really be illustrating that in the l-level discreteness ... but it might be there embedded in the on-going din of everything that's going on in the model physics. 

I just think with that deep longitudnal flow coming in normal to what is getting colder and colder in the guidance, there's likely to be some interesting QPF issues on the flop ( west) sides of those interfaces..

And I also wonder if said processing in the models may even be doing too much - as in over compensating for that interface. This could be causing some QPF shadowing to get exaggerated out in western zones where there's orographic effects then compounding.

Very much agree with those thoughts...  I think yesterday you mentioned looking at the crude E-Wall site Euro maps.  I often use that site as a simple overview of the large-scale features and what they imply before I dig deeper with the more "sophisticated" model sites.   

[Hoth]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

My Nammy loves me, and still pouring snow at 84hrs.

Long Island gets smoked on a lot of those ensembles too. Just need to push that good fronto north another 50 miles. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

My Nammy loves me, and still pouring snow at 84hrs.

I know it is the NAM but that outcome would not surprise me. 

[PhineasC]

I assume the NAM wouldn’t go north from there and basically be a miss?

[RDRY]

NAM likely focusing the low development too far east. Probably will correct in subsequent run(s).

[MJO812]

Icon

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

My Nammy loves me, and still pouring snow at 84hrs.

Is that the 12z?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is that the 12z?

Nope. 18z:

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nope. 18z:

You hate to see it