Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nam actually showed MVY getting pummeled at the end of it's frame. I looked at the sounding and it has big lift in the DGZ there at hr 84. So yeah, dynamics will help when available. 

For this next event?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can going 1-2' in a First Call....but when it comes to game day, you need to man up and identify subby zones and areas of deformation.

Agreed...I think initially, especially like 4-5 days out when you're very confident in a storm and impact you can certainly give a wide range but you need to stress as you get closer and details become clearer the forecast can be fine tuned. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For this next event?

Yeah.

 

[weatherwiz]

If we can implement the one-line phrase posts

 

" [MODEL] looks good" onto the stock market it would become the next Game Stop 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have been wondering about this and I "think" I have a plausible explanation why we are seeing these aggregated clusterings of QPF showing up in some of the recent guidances, packed within 50 miles of coasts N of NJ -

I'm noticing as we are nearing the neared side of the mid range and about to relay off to the outer range of the short range ( ...phew, hate those kind of sentences ), the models are getting interestingly quite cold in the BL at all the major hubs, PHL-NYC-BOS-PWM..   I think we may be getting a bit of long-fetch immediate coastal lift over CF effects there - I am not sure even the depictions of the higher resolution Euro species would really be illustrating that in the l-level discreteness ... but it might be there embedded in the on-going din of everything that's going on in the model physics. 

I just think with that deep longitudnal flow coming in normal to what is getting colder and colder in the guidance, there's likely to be some interesting QPF issues on the flop ( west) sides of those interfaces..

And I also wonder if said processing in the models may even be doing too much - as in over compensating for that interface. This could be causing some QPF shadowing to get exaggerated out in western zones where there's orographic effects then compounding.

I agree with you....this easterly flow is not the type of set up to see big discrepancies due to low level fronto....I don't expect big subby or enhancement due to CF here. Dec 17 was that yype of system...this isn't IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed...I think initially, especially like 4-5 days out when you're very confident in a storm and impact you can certainly give a wide range but you need to stress as you get closer and details become clearer the forecast can be fine tuned. 

I felt pretty confident on the subby yesterday, but just didn't deem it necessary.

Nothing has changed IMO.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Negative. I have a vet who can't collect stimulus money bc someone is fraudulently claiming him as a dependent.

Heard of that and also unemployment.  Hate crooks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah.

 

Hopefully I can get some paste for a time.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can see going 1-2' in a First Call....but when it comes to game day, you need to man up and identify subby zones and areas of deformation.

also...I was trying to be somewhat droll humored in the previous but ...yeah...I don't care about a teleconnector -derived superlative for a D8 juggernaut that sounds like, " ...man, that'd be one of those 1 to 2 footers..."  

If it really mattered to me, I don't honestly like it but I've got far bigger problems in life  lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with you....this easterly flow is not the type of set up to see big discrepancies due to low level fronto....I don't expect big subby or enhancement due to CF here. Dec 17 was that yype of system...this isn't IMO.

This is the type of system where you might see a big CT river shadow out in W MA and then another localized max on east slope of Berks if the ML stuff stays mostly to their east. That would leave them mostly dealing with the firehose which has more terrain influence.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully I can get some paste for a time.

You'll probably stay a more dry snow, especially if that deffy zone sneaks in which it looks too verbatim on the euro. This is what I mean though. H7-H6 will pivot that into CNE from a low SE of the benchmark. Yuuge circulation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Heard of that and also unemployment.  Hate crooks.

Its ugly. Thankfully, this elderly vet is within our domiciliaries, and not on the street...or else he would not have the slightest clue, or means to advocate for himself. Main reason I love my job....spent  like 5 hours lining everything up for him while weening out yesterday and today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is the type of system where you might see a big CT river shadow out in W MA and then another localized max on east slope of Berks if the ML stuff stays mostly to their east. That would leave them mostly dealing with the firehose which has more terrain influence.

Exactly.

This is why I have hated the CTRV all along..Springfield had like 2" in 12/92.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its ugly. Thankfully, this elderly vet is within our domiciliaries, and not on the street...or else he would not have the slightest clue, or means to advocate for himself. Main reason I love my job....spent  like 5 hours lining everything up for him while weening out yesterday and today.

Awesome.  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

This is why I have hated the CTRV all along..Springfield had like 2" in 12/92.

Yeah... I agree with y'all ... The orographic shadowing cannot really be avoided - that is physically imposing geological constraint. 

But, to be concise - which I thought I was but I dunno ... If there is enhancing lift of relatively warmer (saturable) marine air over a cold BL, that may 'rob' in over proficiency ..

What that might do then is then exaggerate the orographic effect ... You end up with 0.3" over Tolland, CT say ...  Obviously we all hope and pray for that to happen...then, have some weird snow phantasm form like anime, sneak in his bedroom window with it's ice dong and be unkind while all that is happening ...

But, in the off-chance that doesn't occur... Sometimes when modeling processes in the environment .. when systemic events effect one another those 2ndary results can blow up in significance.  It's the "hardest" thing to model- seriously

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks nice.

Best EPS yet...even beats 12z yesterday.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not entirely worried about the CTRV just yet. Was just thinking about banding and I could be wrong on this but the last storm really bought this to my mind...if the H7 low doesn't become totally compact (if it stays more elongated) that could favor a farther NW displacement of the CCB while if it develops more compact that would favor the CCB closer to the low center (say 50 miles away as opposed to like 75). I would also think the slope of the fronto should be quite steep...doesn't that factor too into CCB displacement? 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best EPS yet...even beats 12z yesterday.

can I ask an embarrassingly stupid question...

wtf am I looking at there.  The chart on the left says 162 hours and has more snow than the one in the future, on the right..  oh, are these to be added ?

Otherwise that looks like a bad EPS idea for me... I don't like storms that snow 9" then ... brag about  -2 from that 9" to sell 7 yay

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not entirely worried about the CTRV just yet. Was just thinking about banding and I could be wrong on this but the last storm really bought this to my mind...if the H7 low doesn't become totally compact (if it stays more elongated) that could favor a farther NW displacement of the CCB while if it develops more compact that would favor the CCB closer to the low center (say 50 miles away as opposed to like 75). I would also think the slope of the fronto should be quite steep...doesn't that factor too into CCB displacement? 

This is true, but I'm not sure how much it will aid the downsloping, which will happen.

[Cold Miser]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Negative. I have a vet who can't collect stimulus money bc someone is fraudulently claiming him as a dependent.

Crap. How does that get stopped? Who can step in to resolve this kind of farce?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

can I ask an embarrassingly stupid question...

wtf am I looking at there.  The chart on the left says 162 hours and has more snow than the one in the future, on the right..  oh, are these to be added ?

The one on the left is today's 12z EPS mean snowfall....right is yesterday's 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Crap. How does that get stopped? Who can step in to resolve this kind of farce?

We got instructions from the IRS (after being on hold over 2 hrs)....downloaded and mailed into IRS form 104039 for identify theft, made report with Chelsea PD, and  reported to credit bureau via FTC.gov.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The one on the left is today's 12z EPS mean snowfall....right is yesterday's 12z.

Oh, I miss the dates...  right -

see, told ya it was dumb

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway ..that still looks suspiciously gathering the QPF along the shore/coast of Maine all the way down ...

I think there may be some QPF robbing by the cold interface producing - possible.

wouldn't know how to correct for it per se .. but that looks dubious

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We got instructions from the IRS (after being on hold over 2 hrs)....downloaded and mailed into IRS form 104039 for identify theft, made report with Chelsea PD, and  reported it in FTC.gov credit bureau.

I hope they act in an expedited manner.   That sucks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway ..that still looks suspiciously gathering the GPF along the shore/coast of Maine all the way down ...

I think there may be some QPF robbing by the cold interface producing - possible.

wouldn't know how to correct for it per se .. but that looks dubious

I usually don't take ensemble mean totals verbatim...it gives you a general idea of magnitude, and placement.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is true, but I'm not sure how much it will aid the downsloping, which will happen.

I thought downsloping was more of a concern with NW flow...not NE...although I can see it from the ORH hills but that really shouldn't be a player here in CT? I do recall though a few storms where the wind direction was just right where parts of NE CT downsloped. If anything wouldn't the concern be more of llvl dry air advecting from north?

[CoastalWx]

If the EPS happened then you’d have many Areas 10”+. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I thought downsloping was more of a concern with NW flow...not NE...although I can see it from the ORH hills but that really shouldn't be a player here in CT? I do recall though a few storms where the wind direction was just right where parts of NE CT downsloped. If anything wouldn't the concern be more of llvl dry air advecting from north?

I think it is more prominent in Mass....Will would know.

Good point-

[skierinvermont]

dumb question since I don't follow NE snowstorms very much anymore and model output snow totals on noreasters are new to me.. the modeled snow depth looks low to me relative to QPF esp on some of the models like Euro. I know I'm looking at depth vs accums so that would add a couple inches probably but still seems low.