Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My money is on the Euro improving at 12z....EPS will hold.

Maybe a tic or two, But nothing wholesale.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Someone post uncle please.  We’re on the road Erie to Boston today.  TYIA.   I’ll get the euro at the first pee stop.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Take.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Wow... a foot for scooter.... sloppy inch in Tolland? Big yikes 

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I would still bang the 12z GGEM.

I'm banging anything at this point

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

I'm banging anything at this point

Sounds like about 85% of the dudes into weather..

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM NARCAN:

[NorEastermass128]

10 mins till the doctor arrives. E MA looks fine to me. 6+

[HoarfrostHubb]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Someone post uncle please.  We’re on the road Erie to Boston today.  TYIA.   I’ll get the euro at the first pee stop.

Depends

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a metrical comparison on this that no one's mentioned - it's not a knock..it's a bit esoteric to common dig-in

But take the NAM at 78-84 hours. It's a got broadly close 500mb isohypses region at 546 decameters...which probably means the absolute nadir is within a click or two of 540 yet > ... etc.

But the thermal plumb from 750 mb down to the surface at PHL-NYC-BOS appears colder at those time frames than is typically found at those heights.   The 2-meter at Boston is 29 F but that appears to be sea component modulated... inland to PHL ...it's like 24 F ... It should be 534 dm and I wonder what the sounding curves will look like ...

Snowgoose69'er mentioned this season's had it's fair share of oddities - that's been the profound statement of the thread, frankly ...because it's true for one.  But that whole thermal layout on this one in both the W and U - Y relationships appears to be off compared to the classical model.    So add this this one to the list

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM NARCAN:

 

This is still one of the more hilarious terms that was created this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM and UK match up very well.

[subdude]

Is this still looking like a Mid-Atlantic Mauler? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, subdude said:

Is this still looking like a Mid-Atlantic Mauler? 

Its a Tolland Tickler...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not in love with the EURO early on...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not in love with the EURO early on...

Shitstreak is stronger....though N stream is diving in better too, so this might be a late bloomer/left hook.

[dryslot]

I don't see anything wrong with the Euro, Heights are higher out ahead of it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't see anything wrong with the Euro, Heights are higher out ahead of it.

Yeah I love the N stream insert going on...it's gonna back in nicely i think

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't see anything wrong with the Euro, Heights are higher out ahead of it.

You get it well ahead of me, so good.

[CoastalWx]

This should be better than 6z.

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I love the N stream insert going on...it's gonna back in nicely i think

Its already further north of 06z

[dryslot]

Yeah, This is going to be good.

[weatherwiz]

44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s just been some strange stuff this winter overall.  The December storm had the really bizarre displacement of the 700 low from the center which while the occurrence itself wasn’t unusual the fact it was SO displaced in a system that basically began developing over Tennessee was odd.  This time it seems to occlude unusually fast.  As Tip said, part of that is the setup isn’t great aloft and the ceiling is low on how much it can mature but it seems to be occurring at a faster rate than normal regardless 

I'm not totally sold about occlusion occurring that quickly either. Seems like that whole process is being accelerated...why not sure. I'm actually thinking a bit bullish for down this way as there is a quite a bit I like...especially regarding the baroclinic zone...+7C in the warm sector and as cold as -8C to -9C across the interior...that is one helluva gradient Assuming we don't occlude as quick as advertised this is going to have a monster band traverse SNE. I'm in the boat of a 1-2 feet for a large part of SNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm not totally sold about occlusion occurring that quickly either. Seems like that whole process is being accelerated...why not sure. I'm actually thinking a bit bullish for down this way as there is a quite a bit I like...especially regarding the baroclinic zone...+7C in the warm sector and as cold as -8C to -9C across the interior...that is one helluva gradient Assuming we don't occlude as quick as advertised this is going to have a monster band traverse SNE. I'm in the boat of a 1-2 feet for a large part of SNE

Viable possibility, but I held at 8-16" yesterday....bit of room to save face if it ended up more moderate.

[Damage In Tolland]

Crushed 

[dryslot]

Boom

[CoastalWx]

Wow Crushed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

May be like 12z yesterday...

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Viable possibility, but I held at 8-16" yesterday....bit of room to save face if it ended up more moderate.

I did see your post on fb...very well said and thought out. Actually even looking t 12z euro right now closed H5 and H7 track are pretty damn favorable...it just still seems a little occlusion happy. It certainly will occlude...but how quickly is the million $$$ question.