Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Again.. no one cares about the FV3. 
Now if the Ukie is east, then you worry because the Euro would follow it 

Sometimes the Euro does, bout it doesn’t always, it didn’t yesterday.   And where’s the Firehose talk...isn’t that what is gonna make this memorable? 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wide right turn and then it comes almost due north to still hit many very good...but that trend is following what we saw on the 00z and 06z EPS.

Yeah, The wide swing east before coming back is the part that's concerning, No need to try to get it back from Bermuda ea run.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wide right turn and then it comes almost due north to still hit many very good...but that trend is following what we saw on the 00z and 06z EPS.

The wide right turn prior to the hook helps the coastal locales, so pulling for that path. Limits the amount of initial warming

[dryslot]

This would work too, Not as good as 06z but better then its counterpart.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Sometimes the Euro does, bout it doesn’t always, it didn’t yesterday.   And where’s the Firehose talk...isn’t that what is gonna make this memorable? 

firehose is going to come from the cutter next week....I think we can give this until tomorrow afternoon to see if we are still "in it" otherwise it is congrats to the Mid Atlantic...but who knows, it might end up being congrats North Carolina again, so we track for now

[Typhoon Tip]

Clearly ... weaker in the overall wave space through the trough, x and y plain...at 500mb -- > less panache. GGEM did that..

I think I'm in beta-mode state of high confidence for  a pedestrian climate Nor'easter ... It'll be fun!   ...though, those with blue nuts for allowing their "plausible-design" engines gin up their lust too much may not see things that way.... but consider where we were 2 weeks ago when there was nothing interesting any way cut things up and spun them.

Finally belief system tomorrow/night

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m fading big totals pretty much anywhere at this point.. me thinks 12+ isn’t going to be all that widespread

[PhineasC]

I think we are losing her. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m fading big totals pretty much anywhere at this point.. me thinks 12+ isn’t going to be all that widespread

I said that two days ago. I don't see epic totals that widespread. Not with this.

[EastonSN+]

This is looking like a NYC MA jackpot storm.

[dryslot]

Losing the front end thump will indeed cut down the totals, 12" i think has been the ceiling, Maybe someone scores a few more TBD.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that two days ago. I don't see epic totals that widespread. Not with this.

You did, and I think it’s becoming clear that’s the case. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a nice system though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is looking like a NYC MA jackpot storm.

Jan 16 light but capable of hooking back to graze ENE. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You did, and I think it’s becoming clear that’s the case. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a nice system though.

Upside is what the 0z Euro showed for us. That's probably way overdone though, even if the track is closer to the truth. 

[78Blizzard]

Actually, the GGEM is better for EMA areas than the 0z.  And the NYC types  must be on the ledge after this run compared with the 0z run.

[WinterWolf]

Snow goose for the win maybe? He said a couple days back...big event up to NYC, anywhere northeast of that in SNE will be a lot less.  He may end up being very right.  If so, nice meteorological foresight on his part. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Upside is what the 0z Euro showed for us. That's probably way overdone though, even if the track is closer to the truth. 

Yeah... like I said yesterday... I think the further se tracks take the higher end totals off the table. Ultimately, probably better for us, but worse for the interior that could throw up a 2 footer if this tucks.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a way the the totality of the atmosphere achieves as slow pattern/blocking tendency, ...while conserving the velocity surplus shit.  It is -

Because, one wonders if this could ever have truly "stalled" at a deeper system with a hurried flow going on all around it - so the ..the physical "compromise" ( to put is imply ) is a busted ravioli that the smears and wobbles poorly focus multi-nodel low centers inside a bag of moderate impact.  Slow, but no stall... And I'm looking that total painting by the Euro and GGEM and GFS...

- i gotta say..typically a "season defining" system has a lull in active patternization and a dearth in frequency that last for a while afterward.  These guidance seem already overtaking this whole mess quickly into regime change back into raging gradient/speed.  -EPO ...cold loading and wow.  I mean, it's already like we're skipping over this and can't wait to get out there to the rip flow..   Of course, that 'typology' described may be more of a previous climate mode - frankly...all teleconnector inference applications have been resulting in oddities.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be helpful if more northern stream energy injected...ala Euro.

This storm is like a post ERC hurricane....large, wobbly, and not at all pretty to look at it. The high end potential is mitigated, and folks try to reconcile that with the fact said mitigated impacts will be more expansive in scope. "Its only a cat 2, but spread out over 100mi and what a surge"="It tacks over Bermuda and may not be 20", but more people in the game for 10".

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn’t want to be in NYC or NJ for this. They very easily may be missed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It maximizes fast because the forcing is weak ...so it attains it max potential early  - really simple...

Folks keep bangin their hope-heads against their computer screen ever 6 hours for the new run, and until this gets a stronger mechanical feed in of S/W kinematics, it's only going to fluctuate around those distracting observations.

Amazing how everything that has developed this season has been LBSW...you would have never guessed that in a mod la nina.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... like I said yesterday... I think the further se tracks take the higher end totals off the table. Ultimately, probably better for us, but worse for the interior that could throw up a 2 footer if this tucks.

Agree.. for every inch I gain they lose 3". 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You did, and I think it’s becoming clear that’s the case. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a nice system though.

It's possible a narrow area could. Plenty of time for that to be worked out, but for widespread 12+..I'm just not sure. I still would take anything at this point.

[Whineminster]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think we are losing her. 

She gone. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's possible a narrow area could. Plenty of time for that to be worked out, but for widespread 12+..I'm just not sure. I still would take anything at this point.

Same... an 8-12” storm is nothing to sneeze at. Anything is better than the last 6 weeks

[dryslot]

In this winter 2-4" is a major coup.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would send many to the ledge.

I said last night, that would be my tipping point...I wouldn't even melt. I've already done that. I'd leave...this season has already taken enough from me with so little  return.

Spring Training begins soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Same... an 8-12” storm is nothing to sneeze at. Anything is better than the last 6 weeks

Ah-ah-ah.....ahchoo......

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said last night, that would be my tipping point...I wouldn't even melt. I've already done that. I'd leave...this season has already taken enough from me with so little  return.

Spring Training begins soon.

I’ll give it to the euro/eps before I check out on this system. 

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take our 4-7” the V16 shows and be done. This year nothing seems to want to intensify or maximize around this area(it does either south or north).  Oh well..it’s a shit season.  Maybe we get another crack at something major as Feb goes forward...