Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Now that I think about it, that’s something that seems like it wouldn’t get resolved until we are inside 48hr. Right or wrong?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm looking at the 12z ICON and it looks to be well west of the 06z run where SE MA may have issues this run......lol.

The ICON is pretty unreliable this close in. I’ve found at times it can outperform the GFS and Canadian at 100 plus hours but inside day 4 it’s probably on a navgem level 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm looking at the 12z ICON and it looks to be well west of the 06z run where SE MA may have issues this run......lol.

Tucks in near DE. Congrats on the brick in the washer machine.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't melting over the EURO, but for instance, I need to remain mindful that a track over the BM doesn't yield climo results in this as far as deform placement, etc.

That was mostly all me I think. The 4am quick rise and glance at the euro and eps agitated me.  No crayons left to destroy though...so the drive into work cooled me back down. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ICON is pretty unreliable this close in. I’ve found at times it can outperform the GFS and Canadian at 100 plus hours but inside day 4 it’s probably on a navgem level 

I just tossed it out there, It has some wild swings the little i have looked at it, But its more the theme of what direction guidance is going is all i look for.

[CoastalWx]

Buries NYC.

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM looks more like the Euro.  Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The deform on the icon would outproduce the qpf though. 

[dryslot]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM looks more like the Euro.  Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east 

Another model i wouldn't place much stock in at hr 84.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Buries NYC.

Good. 4 day jacks always pan out.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The deform on the icon would outproduce the qpf though. 

That's all i can see on SV, I should have used weather models, More charts on there but i already wasted enough time on it......lol

[PhineasC]

ICON looks pretty good. Hope it is having a brief moment of clarity here.

[TheSnowman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good. 4 day jacks always pan out.

Only Nurlons can do that.  Like  3/2013 having 3 lol.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That's all i can see on SV, I should have used weather models, More charts on there but i already wasted enough time on it......lol

I’m looking on WB and seeing the same thing. That’s a sweet deform. Regardless, yea...too much time reviewing it ha.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM looks more like the Euro.  Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east 

Long range Nam and RGEM

Grain of lucky charms

[IowaStorm05]

34 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You have to think if there is room to come north then it will.  Isn't that what usually happens?

Often. But not always. 

[Cyclone-68]

If everything breaks perfectly, always a long shot naturally, what kind of snow totals could be realized?

[IowaStorm05]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

ICON looks pretty good. Hope it is having a brief moment of clarity here.

Moment of clarity shaking down to 7-11 for a day-old wiener. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This has slowed to a crawl on some guidance..... doesn’t get going until Monday night early Tuesday for most of us out East.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I know you already know but the sooner that gets out of the way the better for the WOR crowd.

But as Scott just said, we don’t want this thing coming too far NW, we don’t even want a BM track with the broad circulation 

[Baroclinic Zone]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Baroclinic Zone Let me know what confused you, and I'll elaborate...

Just having fun.  Not confused at all.  

[UnitedWx]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM was about to slay at hr 84.

LOL what else is new. How about the UKMET?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

But as Scott just said, we don’t want this thing coming too far NW, we don’t even want a BM track with the broad circulation 

You don't want to be trying to tug this back from Bermuda either, So i guess pick your poison.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

If everything breaks perfectly, always a long shot naturally, what kind of snow totals could be realized?

20s for some areas if things break right. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This has slowed to a crawl on some guidance..... doesn’t get going until Monday night early Tuesday for most of us out East.

Been looking like that for a while

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

If everything breaks perfectly, always a long shot naturally, what kind of snow totals could be realized?

At least 5'

[RDRY]

Lower heights ahead of it already on GFS.

[Spanks45]

Stronger confluence on the GFS so far...here comes the 12z shift SE, minus the NAM...guess the Euro goes NW

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like the shit streak is holding or pressing a bit more on this run.

[dryslot]

Hate to see it, Not what you want.