Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The wide right and hook is certainly valid given the ULL look. But it’s also too early to speculate. It could tuck in towards ACU too is the ULL elogantes more SSW-NNW.  People get way too attached to op run swings. 

90 hr actually looks pretty damn good FWIW 5h 7H 8H

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS looked like it had a little spread to the west. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The wide right and hook is certainly valid given the ULL look. But it’s also too early to speculate. It could tuck in towards ACU too is the ULL elogantes more SSW-NNW.  People get way too attached to op run swings. 

Eps has trended worse for the WOR crowd for several cycles in a row. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS looked like it had a little spread to the west. 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS looked like it had a little spread to the west. 

Hopefully the bleeding east has at least halted.

[dryslot]

The 06z EPS was a couple tics west of the 00z run, Still plenty of time left for this.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Congrats Foxboro

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

It was still snowing in Maine at hr 144.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was still snowing in Maine at hr 144.

Yes sir

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[New Hampshire Weather]

Don't worry my fellow New Hampshirites, it will happen. Last second northwestward trend is coming just hold on. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully the bleeding east has at least halted.

Yup. The bleeding did stop on the eps, there’s that. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. The bleeding did stop on the eps, there’s that. 

Yup put a floor on this. 60%EURO 30%v.16 10%cmc.

 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Scooter shit streak pulling NE on this run. Energy coming in the back side. For an ENS precip panel that is very stout

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

90 hr actually looks pretty damn good FWIW 5h 7H 8H

Our W CT peeps need that further west. That is a huge look for like BOS/ORH down to your hood if we extrapolate another frame or two.

Plenty of time for 100 mile shifts though.

[Cold Miser]

Many meltdown's going to happen over the next 24-36hrs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The wide right and hook is certainly valid given the ULL look. But it’s also too early to speculate. It could tuck in towards ACU too is the ULL elogantes more SSW-NNW.  People get way too attached to op run swings. 

Yea, def.....I could have done without seeing the OP Euro do that last night, but I would give it like 3 on the concern meter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our W CT peeps need that further west. That is a huge look for like BOS/ORH down to your hood.

Plenty of time for 100 mile shifts though.

That is not far from a March 2018 look...

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Far from over when your still 90 hrs out

I'd feel pretty good from Pit2 up through you.

[New Hampshire Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is not far from a March 2018 look...

We're still far enough out from the storm. The trough hasn't been sampled yet I believe and the CCB will create some uncertainty up to the end

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is not far from a March 2018 look...

No it's not....in terms of placement of best deform axis. (3/13/18)

[CoastalWx]

It's getting into the RAOB network so it is being sampled..maybe not totally yet. You also have Canada which doesn't have great sampling, but we have satellites that do amazing jobs with being substitutes for that, especially away from the polar areas. 

[GCWarrior]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is not far from a March 2018 look...

I assume you mean the first March 2018 storm.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, GCWarrior said:

I assume you mean the first March 2018 storm.  

Nope. 3/13.

[GCWarrior]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nope. 3/13.

oh right

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it's not....in terms of placement of best deform axis. (3/13/18)

More of a toned down Jan 15 look to me.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

More of a toned down Jan 15 look to me.

Both storms had a similar axis of heaviest snow....'15 might have been just a smidge west of Mar '18....the latter basically had the huge totals stop at Windham county up to ORH.

But yeah, this one looks less prolific than either storm at the moment. Could still change, but that elongated upper low look definitely puts a cap on this....we need it to fatten up again.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. 3/13.

Yes.

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The ull that's coming thru here today is playing a roll on upstream conditions at present that's affecting our system for the 1st, That's what needs to be watched.

Also GYX mentions strength of Canadian highre ens sensitivity.  I know that’s a part of the confluence along with today’s ULL

[ineedsnow]

Meh congrats eastern areas