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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 7:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

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  On 1/29/2021 at 9:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

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Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 11:32 AM, WinterWolf said:

 

Two Entirely different perspectives.  One guy says it’s “game over,” the other says “game on.”

Very interesting set of modeling runs coming up today and tomorrow. 

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Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/29/2021 at 11:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trends are not our friends but game over as in anything 12+ for us. Still have wiggle room to pull out a warning event. 

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Imo it’s too early to say that at this juncture. But that’s just me.   And I’m fine with a warning event too.  Long way to go here still. 

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TheMainer

TheMainer

Posted
Posted

I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:21 PM, TheMainer said:

I really hope this starts tucking back in towards Maine instead of exiting stage right, our snowmobiling related businesses are suffering bad up here with a complete crap season. This is the latest we haven't groomed in a season since at least the 90s, neighboring club has but they have a RR bed and we don't.

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The pandemic has hit local bizz hard so if snow can help offset it, I’m all for it. GL up there, LFG!

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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  On 1/29/2021 at 12:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

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As long as the hook is modelled I have hope, because then small adjustments north and west have big impacts, and the location of a deformation band gets interesting.  Is it still a big wide h5 with expansive precipq?

 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 7:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro op is closed the shades unless you’re semaatt. Eps is not much better. 

Game over unless the euro/eps have shat on themselves.

 

Expand  

 

  On 1/29/2021 at 9:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Those 2 maps you posted would have a heavy axis of snow back into E NY state. Game officially on

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is it game on, or game over?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:39 PM, dryslot said:

What a morgue in here, lol, Other then the Euro, It looks like models overnight ticked back NW some, We shall see what today brings,  We should have a good idea i think by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow where this is going.

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It’s brutal. One look at inflow Jerry posted was all any New Englander needed to see 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two. 

 

Expand  

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:45 PM, EastonSN+ said:

What are your thoughts on the storm.

In one "camp" u have the EURO with the wide right scenario.

In the other camp you have GFS V.16 ukmet and Canadian with a more tucked scenario.

EURO obviously gets higher weight. However being on its own has to be a red flag.

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Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:51 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being on its own didn’t pan out in Jan 15 but it will here...eveything is slowly sinking south. ENE looks good though. We need the ull to lift out of here asap for a big impact. It can happen, sure.

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I do feel a south trend but not sold on a hook to eastern areas YET (at least not the 2 foot type) I still think something similar to the below.... Which is similar somewhat to UKMET V.16

image.png.93e6d8ef05a84a82034202e871f34868.png

 

 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 1/29/2021 at 12:46 PM, mahk_webstah said:

As long as there is no clear strong feature to continue the s and e trend, I will go with climo n and w trends and better baroclinity further north.

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The ull that's coming thru here today is playing a roll on upstream conditions at present that's affecting our system for the 1st, That's what needs to be watched.

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