Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This could end up being congrats DC with the first qpf max before it dumbbells into ENE with the second max.

Eh, We probably have a better idea by 0z tomorrow night where this is heading.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This could end up being congrats DC with the first qpf max before it dumbbells into ENE with the second max.

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Eh, We probably have a better idea by 0z tomorrow night where this is heading.

I kinda hope it exits the coast a little further south and has time to deepen before it swings back this way.

This due east south of SNE stuff doesn't cut it up here.

[PhineasC]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

It's not even gone yet. LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

When did we lose it? Lol. All systems a go 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

But it’s not just one run or even one cycle of runs. Past several cycles with practically everything but the gfs69 is pushing the intial occlusion south. 

I’m not mailing anything in...just stating what I see. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But it’s not just one run or even one cycle of runs. Past several cycles with practically everything but the gfs69 is pushing the intial occlusion south. 

I’m not mailing anything in...just stating what I see. 

12/17/20 did the same thing, 1/27/15 was gone too, then came back 2-3 days before go time.  Feb 13 shit the bed for a while too...they/most all go awry it seems at some point is my feeling.  
 

That’s my thought/feeling on this.  I don’t think they(models) know yet?  That’s why we’re seeing this now.  And it could slip east/south but I’m not thinking that currently. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Kind of has to do with the orientation of the upper low in the NW Atlantic. More recent trends have it pushing west into New England and it’s squashing the trough a bit for the secondary 

[Damage In Tolland]

We desperately need some met input because folks are gone 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eh, We probably have a better idea by 0z tomorrow night where this is heading.

The ull traversing over Jimmy’s head keeps trending further west and pushing the initial occlusion further sw. It doesn’t matter much for you as you’ll get the secondary swing but down here, we need that trending further east or weaker. 

[Supernovice]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing that makes the Pope look really bad is he was so adamant he was going to be right.. was very smug about it. Then when he was 110% wrong... he didn’t own up to and admit his mistake. He just stopped posting. Everyone makes mistakes and busts. But own  up to it @jbenedet. Learn and understand why it happened and where you went wrong. Your’re fresh out of college and young. Don’t just run away with the deflated football. It’s a really bad look 

ill just leave this here:

   On 1/16/2021 at 1:53 PM,  Damage In Tolland said: 

4”+ is a lock OTG by this time next Sat

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Kind of has to do with the orientation of the upper low in the NW Atlantic. More recent trends have it pushing west into New England and it’s squashing the trough a bit for the secondary 

Yes. That’s what I’m seeing too. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The ull traversing over Jimmy’s head keeps trending further west and pushing the initial occlusion further sw. It doesn’t matter much for you as you’ll get the secondary swing but down here, we need that trending further east or weaker. 

It is lowering the heights over my head but it also sends the slp further SE as depicted by the GFS, Doesn't get much precip here as it swings it out pretty far to the east to clip DE Maine but i'm not going to sweat the fine details yet, A lot going on in the flow.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We desperately need some met input because folks are gone 

My opinion isn’t it’s gone at all...I just think it’s the mid range goofy BS that always seems to happen.  We knew there’d be changes..some are real and some seem to wash out over time so to speak.  We still don’t know where, and exactly how this all evolves yet.  So everything is still on the table with this.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We desperately need some met input because folks are gone 

Text Scooter yo...family dinner is not important.

[weathafella]

Eps has a really nice h5 look.  Liking today’s trends so far just west of Cleveland heading to Erie, PA tonight.  

[WinterWolf]

Looks to be snowing out on the Cape...Jimmy was expecting blizzard conditions for a bit, wonder if it’s verifying out there? 

[EastonSN+]

Was this a similar evolution but colder?

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Eps went se as well. 

[dryslot]

Its over.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its over.

Lol I was just gonna say that exact same thing.  

Next. 

[weathafella]

Luke may well be dumbfounded by a fire hose 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eps went se as well. 

Jerry likes it.

[weathafella]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Jerry likes it.

What’s not to like in eastern New England?

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its over.

Ha.  Still a very strong signal for E.MA in the 51-member mean.  It’s over up here though most likely.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We’ll see but last several cycles have been weaker and se:

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

What’s not to like in eastern New England?

Was just saying you liked it. I didn’t mean anything good or bad.
 

 A good chunk of us don’t live in extreme eastern New England though. 

[Lava Rock]

We’ll see but last several cycles have been weaker and se:

That's not gonna work

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[MJO812]

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha.  Still a very strong signal for E.MA in the 51-member mean.  It’s over up here though most likely.

I think a PWM track has been long off the table...............