Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if Euro follows . Oh boy 

It will prob come in a bit less amped...more in line w EPS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Is that you?

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a Cape scraper....whiff for most of the forum.

Classic second best model move. 

[Dan]

Those subby zones are sometimes modeled well.  That storm in December, had southeast NH and downeast main in the subby zone for several days in advance.  It nailed it.  Matter fact I think it wasn't big enough.    This storm is not the same animal, but certainly seems to be a transfer that shows "a sub zone".

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Classic second best model move. 

Most volatile medium range model by far. It likes to have 300-400 mile swings.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see what the euro says, but day 5 Ukie is as good as the NAVGEM. I don't care what the H5 RMS errors say. That models shits itself at that timeframe more often than not.

 

I've been down this Q/A road with this forum's contributors a few times over the years ...and never really got a satisfying/convincing explanation that didn't sound like a well formulated, thus difficult to dispute opinion ...Which is great!  - if one's seeking artfully forumulaic grammar and rhetoric -

But, are those errors globally integrated ...or, ( sum [ quadrature mean average ] ) / N-quadratures...

how etc... ??

Because it matters of course... If the UKMET is amazing in the Universe except on planet New England, it doesn't do us much good knowing that it scores among the other legendary oracles, does it.  I mean, models probably do have error prone regions.

 ( I know you know all this...)

I mean I think the Euro has a demon monkey on its back within the region between 110 W and 90 W over N/A mid latitudes, in the D4.5- 8 range specifically, that it may not have over France where it's always dead nuts accurate - I dunno.. But, it is consummately having to removes some 20% of it's curved appeal from the charts when passing that time range inside ( or < ) 5 days... It's frustrating - really... particularly when one attempts to use that observation and their own experience with it, and some other poster swoops in to remind them 'H5 RMS error  H5 RMS error' ...  ugh. 

It seems to me the UKMET is horrible, f'ing period man - but in its defense, I haven't taken it seriously since 1994  LOL

yet...there it is H5 error proves its so awesome, all over again -  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I've been down this Q/A road with this forum's contributors over the years ...and never really got a satisfying/convincing explanation that didn't sound like a well formulated, hard-to-despute opinion ...which is great!  - if one's seeking artful grammar and rhetoric -

But, are those errors globally integrated ...or, ( sum [ quadrature mean average ] ) / N-quadratures

etc... ??

Because it matters of course... If the UKMET is amazing in the Universe except on planet New England, it doesn't do us much good knowing that it scores among the other legendary oracles, does it.  I mean, models probably do have error prone regions.

 ( I know you know all this...)

I mean I think the Euro has a demon monkey on its back with the region between 110 W and 90 W over N/A mid latitudes, in the D4.5- 8 range specifically.  It is consummately having to removes some 20% of it's curved appeal from the charts when passing that time range inside ( or < ) 5 days... It's frustrating - really... particularly when one attempts to use that observation and their own experience with it, and some other poster swoops in to remind them 'H5 RMS error  H5 RMS error' ...  ugh. 

It seems to me the UKMET is horrible, f'ing period man - but in its defense, I haven't taken it seriously since 1994  LOL

yet...there it is H5 error proves it not all over again -  

Nrn hemi H5 scores. It swings around so violently as Will said. 

[IowaStorm05]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have screenshotted this and am adding it to my collection named “Weirdo Art”. This isn’t creepy behavior 

[EastonSN+]

GFS v.16 with a massive hit for SNE.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just bump north on ensembles , thanks

no real wiggle room south 

I would prefer a storm 

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would toss the UK as far as you can, then run the other direction.

too many beers

 

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some people can't tolerate objectivity.....they want you in a snowflake costume with pom poms relentlessly shouting "GO STORM, GO'"..

5 PPD is not used liberally enough.

Not something we have the option of doing anymore.  I  can send someone packing though, with a single click.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We're still a bit out, but I loathe my location for this one relative to others. I gradually gain elevation where I am but I'm still right in the valley.  

I would be conservative where you are, yea....probably not more than 9-10".

[Damage In Tolland]

When the Ukie makes a move... more often than not Euro follows... they’re intertwined somehow 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS v.16 with a massive hit for SNE.

Sure is

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be conservative where you are, yea....probably not more 9-10".

I would be conservative where you are, .probably not more 9-10".

[Typhoon Tip]

120 thru 138 hour GGEM's 500 mb evolution was impressive -

...seein' as we're in load the needle over individual model parametrics mode .... let the eyes roll back in the head.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When the Ukie makes a move... more often than not Euro follows... they’re intertwined somehow 

Yea, but the move us usually much less aggressive. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I would be conservative where you are, .probably not more 9-10".

I will bet you...I will take the over 9.5"here...you take the under.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will bet you...I will take the over 9.5"here...you take the under.

Not 3.5 days out. Let’s wait till 2.5 tomorrow 

[Great Snow 1717]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some people can't tolerate objectivity.....they want you in a snowflake costume with pom poms relentlessly shouting "GO STORM, GO'"..

5 PPD is not used liberally enough.

Agree!

[Typhoon Tip]

kidding there ... but the sfc charts over at TT is where I've been getting them - didn't load apparently.  I don't frankly have enough faith in the GGEM beyond 4 days to find a different source so shoot me.

But I can imagine the surface has a near bombogen deepening rate between 126 and 138 hours with that evolution.

[WeatherX]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS v.16 with a massive hit for SNE.

Takes care of a bunch of snowfall issues for most

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the Ukie makes a move... more often than not Euro follows... they’re intertwined somehow 

It won't be that drastic if it does at all.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Quite the omega thump on the GFS/ GFSv16 today

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Takes care of a bunch of snowfall issues for most

...

LOL ...

funny you just said it that way - close to what I just internally mused:    Between the GGEM's mid level appeal and this Pivotal -supplied V16 .. a lot of folks are going to go a considerable distance in correcting both perceived seasonal snowfall deficits ...  eh hm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would be conservative where you are, .probably not more 9-10".

5 days out I would be conservative period ...when a 100 mile south shift makes this NBD 

This has potential as a slow mover deep E flow system of moderate strength 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree!

There are two types...some do it just to poke and prod...other do it because they honestly don't know any better, and I most know into which distinction these posters fall into lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, WeatherX said:

Takes care of a bunch of snowfall issues for most

That would be tough to watch as areas 20mi East of me get 3x as much snow as Greenfield. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

5 days out I would be conservative period ...when a 100 mile south shift makes this NBD 

I am ready to take the over now for MBY, if any takers....just LMK.

Thanks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

5 days out I would be conservative period ...when a 100 mile south shift makes this NBD 

This has potential as a slow mover deep E flow system of moderate strength 

Except it’s 3.5 days. It comes in Sunday night