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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics.  The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”  

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

GUYS!!!!     I Totally Forgot to tell YOU - I'm Livestreaming a Huge Concert I did in LA that has been Fully Edited and Never before Seen (unless you where there)!!  Starts at 6pm.    

TheSnowman
TheSnowman

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half a

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dendrite

dendrite

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21 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Didn't that mid December storm show dryslots pretty far in advance of the storm that came to fruition? 

Yeah, but they bounced around on modeling. I agree with Ray that you can have an idea of the evolution of the system. If it's a redeveloper you usually get that lower QPF zone between the dying primary and the maturing secondary. But a lot of things can happen between d5 to d0 to shift that around...that's all. I know I'm stating the obvious, but we tend to get fixated on what models are specifically showing at this lead time.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah, but they bounced around on modeling. I agree with Ray that you can have an idea of the evolution of the system. If it's a redeveloper you usually get that lower QPF zone between the dying primary and the maturing secondary. But a lot of things can happen between d5 to d0 to shift that around...that's all. I know I'm stating the obvious, but we tend to get fixated on what models are specifically showing at this lead time.

Yes. More often than not...that Dec 17 case was in the minority, but I think this one maybe, too.

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Brewbeer

Brewbeer

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lake Hitchcock. Greenfield/Deerfield was thought to be the northern edge of the prehistoric lake.
driving up I-91 there is that rest stop/scenic overlook in Holyoke and you can see how massive that part of the valley is.

Westover AB was built on a massive sand and gravel delta that was formed by the Chicopee River carrying glacial sediments into glacial Lake Hitchcock, the view at the i-91 rest stop really shows this well.    The surface of the airfield is same elevation as the lake was when it was formed.  There are delta deposits of sand and gravel all up and down the valley at the same elevation as the historic glacial lake. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I don't know if this has true block buster possibilities. Maybe in a narrow band perhaps as the deformation rots, but this is just a broad trough with surface lows jumping all over as a front end band moves in and then light rates after it leaves. I'd like to see H5 go under and tighten up in order for my mind to change.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't know if this has true block buster possibilities. Maybe in a narrow band perhaps as the deformation rots, but this is just a broad trough with surface lows jumping all over as a front end band moves in and then light rates after it leaves. I'd like to see H5 go under and tighten up in order for my mind to change.

Yea, out in PA and NYS, but without any arctic air, I doubt its 40" again.

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I think we are stuck with the bloated H5, at this point....I don't see that tightening up and going under SNE. The monster band will come through, drop a foot, then another day of nuisance. The initial band will be weakening as it passes through, and the secondary will begin to compensate back east.

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dryslot

dryslot

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah, but they bounced around on modeling. I agree with Ray that you can have an idea of the evolution of the system. If it's a redeveloper you usually get that lower QPF zone between the dying primary and the maturing secondary. But a lot of things can happen between d5 to d0 to shift that around...that's all. I know I'm stating the obvious, but we tend to get fixated on what models are specifically showing at this lead time.

In the end, Some may probably end up with asphyxiation from ones lips around an exhaust pipe.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Mm... I remember very specifically adsressing the depictions of QPF   'shadowing'   that were persistently on the guidance leading that event, Dec 17, across the pantheon of leading tech frankly. 

Not that anyone refutes - just sayn'.  

There was zero ambiguity... It was absolutely clear that for a few of us, we were taking it seriously and were leery of that feature and design in those QPF spreads, based upon experience, and we even discussed, profoundly, plausible causalities for that phenomenon in other systems in history.  Ideas such secondary ingesting very dry 'tuck' jet air hygroscopically eating at the fall column, to UVM repositioning mechanics ( Brian's assertion above ..) ...were all viable culprit candidates... all of which are valid reasons for why the models do sometimes paint those systems wth "V" notching QPF 'predesignated' sore-butt zones. Ha

As it were, .. yup - don't argue with the notch!  It verified. We here, in that area, verified the doubts to 11.5" totals.   I just don't bitch and complain about totals nearing a foot -heh.  15+ was more common surrounding N. Worc/ N. Mid and adjacent S-SE NH...

While at it ...  I studied that event as it was unfolding...  the reason for the notch that time, from what I surmised, was a split in the tropospheric vertical column of the storm.  The mid and U/A, post split, drifted through central NE partying on in those shenanigans.  Whilst the 700 mb drifted along LI, festering a bit of secondary that enhanced snow S of here ..but not nearly as prolific as the mid level magic going on N.  May also have been some llv CF helping down there, too.  This all in totality "spared" a band from N of Springfield ( or so ) Ma Nashua NH from the same output.

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