Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Starting yesterday, I went into the late bloomer camp and I'm gonna run with that scenario.  See how it plays out.

Its best to not get locked into a scenario this far out. How many times have we seen how the evolution especially in mid levels change. 

[dendrite]

Too many days out to be worried about suckerholes and such. We know how these can play out with the changes from d5 to go-time.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ultimately, I agree about my area remaining snow because the OP is more amped than the steadfast EPS mean, however, I do see the relative lull in your area very apparent.

Yes, pretty much every model is hinting this, with considerable consistency. It’s a flag for high end amounts for a large portion of CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

My area on your maps depicted there are the same as yours. What you are seeing further to my west is the model depiction of where it thinks the CTRV is. They always are too wide on either side of it in shadow events. You know that. Deep east flow. I actually like NE hills CT for more than your area 

Yea, you are on the edge....climo dictates that you prob catch the SW edge of the redevelopment, however, I do like my area a bit better in this case.

[SouthCoastMA]

The Euro op from 12z 1/26 was too perfect. This is turning into a long duration SECS inland. Maybe MECS ceiling.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Yes, pretty much every model is hinting this, with considerable consistency. It’s a flag for high end amounts for a large portion of CT

I wouldn't even say that....its a flag for a few inches under whatever the highest amounts end up being. At the end of the day, with that 850 inflow, I don't think there is a great disparity between haves and have nots....save for the CTRV...downslope should be bad.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its best to not get locked into a scenario this far out. How many times have we seen how the evolution especially in mid levels change. 

Yeah...I mean what did yesterday look like when it was 5-6d out? Kev will probably end up jacking when all is said and done. lol

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My area on your maps depicted there are the same as yours. What you are seeing further to my west is the model depiction of where it thinks the CTRV is. They always are too wide on either side of it in shadow events. You know that. Deep east flow. I actually like NE hills CT for more than your area 

Have to agree with that.  Always portrays the CTRV too wide. I look at 850 flow and think like Ray did. Colder DEC 92 like. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah...I mean what did yesterday look like when it was 5-6d out? Kev will probably end up jacking when all is said and done. lol

For CT I do like Rev’s location for sure

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you are on the edge....climo dictates that you prob catch the SW edge of the redevelopment, however, I do like my area a bit better in this case.

Kitkrieg Kraver thinking all of CT and s getting 1-3” . I mean we’re 3.5-4 days out . We know these shift and disappear 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah...I mean what did yesterday look like when it was 5-6d out? Kev will probably end up jacking when all is said and done. lol

I don't think that is an entirely fair comp....I understand the inherent risks of the range, but I feel as though this one is more table than avg at this lead...at least the ens. Probably owed to the synoptic synergy that has been flagging this period.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to agree with that.  Always portrays the CTRV too wide. I look at 850 flow and think like Ray did. Colder DEC 92 like. 

The valley is so narrow.. especially in CT. It increases in elevation very quickly on either side. The models always make it look like it’s as wide as the Mississippi 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to agree with that.  Always portrays the CTRV too wide. I look at 850 flow and think like Ray did. Colder DEC 92 like. 

Yea, except for CTRV, I don't think this one will have big subby holes....not with that flow. But what I am saying is I don't think that is just the model depicting the CTRV too widely....I think there is also a trasnfer ongoing to the coast.

JMHO.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you are on the edge....climo dictates that you prob catch the SW edge of the redevelopment, however, I do like my area a bit better in this case.

Climo? On individual systems? Climo is a high end low end and everything in between average or mean. Its virtually impossible to say which end of the spectrum individual systems fall in.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that is an entirely fair comp....I understand the inherent risks of the range, but I feel as though this one is more table than avg at this lead...at least the ens. Probably owed to the synoptic synergy that has been flagging this period.

The day 5 QPF/ptype maps rarely come close to verifying...whatever the system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Climo? On individual systems? Climo is a high end low end and everything in between average or mean. Its virtually impossible to say which end of the spectrum individual systems fall in.

Yes....blend of guidance, and past experience with similar systems. JMHO....you do you, I'll do me. lol

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kitkrieg Kraver thinking all of CT and s getting 1-3” . I mean we’re 3.5-4 days out . We know these shift and disappear 

Lol. No.

[CoastalWx]

Snow is serious business. LOL. "Don't put me in the in zone"!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

The day 5 QPF/ptype maps rarely come close to verifying...whatever the system.

Undoubtedly, on average.

Yes. Agree.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....blend of guidance, and past experience with similar systems. JMHO....you do me, I'll do me. lol

I don't want to do you, all set.  Thanks for the offer though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

More often than not, nothing can be nailed down at this range, but that is not always the case. Folks were screaming the same crap when I emphatically called that subby area over my head for several days leading into the 12/17 event.

Lets see what happens...if its still there tomorrow, then some may need to deal.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

More often than not, nothing can be nailed down at this range, but that is not always the case. Folks were screaming the same crap when I emphatically called that subby area over my head in the 12/17 event.

Lets see what happens...if its still there tomorrow, then some may need to deal.

Deal With It

-Cosgrove 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have no idea why the Bermuda triangle sucked in so many members almost everything is w or nw of the mean:

I am wondering how these plots are assessed really ...

I could see that being two distinct nodal lows at that hourly interval- it's just that of those members ...they happen to have developed enough of the 2nd to close that circulation and ping the plot.  In practical terms, said 2nd circulation might look like a kink or bend in the cold front that is subtended S beneath the 'main' vortex ...

Something like this,

 

We have to consider that this is ...well, as of yesterday and priors ... a very broad trough in terms of areal expanse ... it's huge!  Or 'yuge' depending on one's vernacular in the region ... So much so that it could very well gestate an entirely new ..albeit weaker, cyclonic life-cycle down further along the seaward escaping baroclinic axis. It's not uncommon with large eddy mechanics to see the cold frontal kink, and a new low develops between Florida and Bermuda...

You know... when I was 11 years old and flunking math miserably ... what I was doing instead of paying attention, ...notes, deciphering ..heh, was literally and figuratively for that matter, drawing weather maps. 

Yup - that's what I did.  Teacher even said once in an admonishing parent-teacher-why-is-my-kid-a-consummate-dinktard conference, " I don't understand, he's a great student - I always see him furiously taking notes when I turn around to face the class..."   'Cept, those weren't math notes.  First, I would free-hand the U.S., and I was pretty fantastic ...right down to the Pu. Sound to the Baja of Cal... to the Miss. Delta... Delmarva, GLs...Finger Lakes and Cape Ann... I didn't bother with the geodesic state lines...I kept to physical geography and left the tarnishing conceit of humanity from the purity of my designs ... ( I was a fledgling cynic too - ).  Take the average dorky nerd of cinema and literature trope, call that person's life a black hole of despair: I was the super massive black hole version of that ...    Anyway, I used to draw movies of frontal sequences ...in between spit-soaked paper wad plunks to the side of the head and the occasional special ridicule the same cinema and literature ...never quite seems to get right.  Here's the interesting aspect ... I learned a lot about the "Norwegian Cyclone" model thus by reasoning through the artistic nature of that focus.  I remember as I contoured each frame ( and I even instinctively did 6 am and noon and 6pm and midnight in-order, only to find later in life...that's the way the Met world does it too... ) having aspects and answers to lingering questions come to me. 'Oh, that's got to be why -', secret learning through the an internal Socratic method ... See, it's why I am a huge advocate for giving kids play time.  Kids not allowed to use imagination - interesting subsequent adulthoods...  But so much conceptual stuff I gleaned out of these right hemispheric storm tapestry sessions ... I was completely nuts!  *BUT*, by the time I got to college and those first couple of years of synoptic, I A'ed everything!

Funny the stuff you think about when your dad tells you his brother died - maybe just the spectrum of one's own experiences and how they got there becomes paramount.   Anyway, ...and I've often wondered if a big meaty beefy bitch trough with several spokes timed 2 clicks apart could spin up "kink" lows that peel back NW and ensemble line punch a region repeatingly - LOL... No accounting for the imagination of a small boy ... Come time and life and experiences and Christine's later, I learned how that's essentially how all this works anyway.  It's called S/W embedded in L/W ...embedded in resident R-waves .. it's just happening at broader and longer time scales.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am wondering how these plots are assessed really ...

I could see that being two distinct nodal lows at that hourly interval- it's just that of those members ...they happen to see the 2nd close circulation.  In practical terms, said 2nd circulation might look like a kind or bend in the cold front that is subtended S beneath the 'main' vortex ...

Something like this,

Read the posts under the one you quoted 

[Cold Miser]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too many days out to be worried about suckerholes and such. We know how these can play out with the changes from d5 to go-time.

Didn't that mid December storm show dryslots pretty far in advance of the storm that came to fruition? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. It certainly affects the mean. Maybe someone can show me how to remove those on WB...if it is possible to do so.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The valley is so narrow.. especially in CT. It increases in elevation very quickly on either side. The models always make it look like it’s as wide as the Mississippi 

The valley is pretty wide from Hartford all the way to Northampton

[GCWarrior]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The valley is pretty wide from Hartford all the way to Northampton

The valley is massive if you look at it from one of the higher points in the area.  Grandparents had a house in halifax, vt you could literally look down on the entire valley all the way to the Holyoke Range.  It's huge!  It was a massive lake at one time.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, GCWarrior said:

The valley is massive if you look at it from one of the higher points in the area.  Grandparents had a house in halifax, vt you could literally look down on the entire valley all the way to the Holyoke Range.  It's huge!  It was a massive lake at one time.  

Lake Hitchcock. Greenfield/Deerfield was thought to be the northern edge of the prehistoric lake.
driving up I-91 there is that rest stop/scenic overlook in Holyoke and you can see how massive that part of the valley is.

[IowaStorm05]

24 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Didn't that mid December storm show dryslots pretty far in advance of the storm that came to fruition? 

Yes I think it did. Dry slots. Screw zones. If I remember.