Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[IowaStorm05]

The grabbing hands, grab all they can.

all for themselves, after all

its a competitive world.

everything counts in large amounts. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like your 495 west deal. Toaster here.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Starting to get that feel

Sort of due for one. I'm 50/50 on it.

[78Blizzard]

Most dismissed the Ukie, but it could have been right.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You hope this is the Euro doing what the Euro has done in past years, overamplify storms only to come back to reality. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro basically takes a piece of nrn stream energy and closes off H5 in PA and heads into NNE. That's probably congrats far interior.

[CoastalWx]

Whereas the GFS slides H5 along the S coast. Big difference.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A compromise would be good for many

[EastonSN+]

How does 0z EURO look for Western areas?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

70/30 euro/gfs, again, seems like the play.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

How does 0z EURO look for Western areas?

Looks good, qpf be damned:

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks good, qpf be damned:

Thanks. Looks like best dinamics SW into NJ PA. CT river valley issues shown nicely. Best place to be if u do not like snow is on boat east of Boston.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

70/30 euro/gfs, again, seems like the play.

I do similar. 60 EURO/30gfs v16/10 CMC.

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS looks beautiful. Definitely not as amped as 00z.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS looks beautiful. Definitely not as amped as 00z.

Yea let's do this

[dryslot]

We’re going too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. Looks like best dinamics SW into NJ PA. CT river valley issues shown nicely. Best place to be if u do not like snow is on boat east of Boston.

That will shift around though and with qpf being what it is...just get the mid levels to track right underneath us, that’s all we want to see. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Starting yesterday, I went into the late bloomer camp and I'm gonna run with that scenario.  See how it plays out.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks good, qpf be damned:

Yeah we know that hole won’t be there. They disappear each run 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks good, qpf be damned:

Many will have enjoyed yesterday more.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah we know that hole won’t be there. They disappear each run 

It makes sense to me....just as the precip type concerns do out my way. There is going to be an area of lesser QPF between the original H5 closure back in PA, and the coastal taking over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Starting yesterday, I went into the late bloomer camp and I'm gonna run with that scenario.  See how it plays out.

I agree...issue is where does it bloom and how late lol I have always bought the first H5 closure jack in mid atl, with a lull either in NYC or CT, then secondary maxima ORH points ne into ME.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whereas the GFS slides H5 along the S coast. Big difference.

Huge

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It makes sense to me....just as the precip type concerns do out my way. There is going to be an area of lesser QPF between the original H5 closure back in PA, and the coastal taking over.

I don’t see that at all. This should have relatively uniform qpf except where we see the deform set up over western and central areas where there could be a bit more. We’ll probably see the CTRV shadow like we did in Morch 2013. And your area probably stays snow . EPS outlines it all 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Starting yesterday, I went into the late bloomer camp and I'm gonna run with that scenario.  See how it plays out.

Yeah... initial thump=>transfer=>late bloom redevelopment. Clearly depicted wrt how the models are distributing the QPF. I know queens gonna queen, but it is giving us a clue imo 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That will shift around though and with qpf being what it is...just get the mid levels to track right underneath us, that’s all we want to see. 

Notice the shift offshore with the 850 2nd image is 06z. Major impact on precip type.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see that at all. This should have relatively uniform qpf except where we see the deform set up over western and central areas where there could be a bit more. We’ll probably see the CTRV shadow like we did in Morch 2013. And your area probably stays snow . EPS outlines it all 

Ultimately, I agree about my area remaining snow because the OP is more amped than the steadfast EPS mean, however, I do see the relative lull in your area as a very prominent feature.

[Chrisrotary12]

Assuming the operational guidance have the general idea correct....this is a funny looking system for our parts. Definitely not our traditional WAA transitioning to CCB set-up. It reminds me more of a great plains blizzard where the system gets so wound up and precipitation is focused into an intense 100 mile wide band. Except in this instance the band doesn't sit and rot over one spot, it continues its march north.

If we want high end totals, then I think we want this thing to slip eastward rather than northeast ward. Keep the flow of Atlantic moisture for as long as possible. Otherwise it's really just a 8-12 hour thump. (which is still nice).

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ultimately, I agree about my area remaining snow because the OP is more amped than the steadfast EPS mean, however, I do see the relative lull in your area very apparent.

My area on your maps depicted there are the same as yours. What you are seeing further to my west is the model depiction of where it thinks the CTRV is. They always are too wide on either side of it in shadow events. You know that. Deep east flow. I actually like NE hills CT for more than your area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its not a huge deal....just means maybe 10" in central CT, instead of 14".